Week 4 NFL Odds
Welcome to the Week 4 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I analyze the NFL slate through the lens of respected predictive models to see where there is the most consensus and the most disagreement, which is valuable in determining which bets to potentially make and which ones to stay away from if the data is mixed. Here are the biggest model agreements and disagreements in Week 4.
Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.
Week 4 NFL Odds Model Alignment:
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) vs New York Jets, O/U 44.5
Our biggest model consensus this week is on two 0-3 teams duking it out for their first win of the season, as the Jets visit the Dolphins for Monday Night Football. The model average prediction for this game is Miami -1.8, with a variance of just 0.7 points. FPI is the most generous model on this game, projecting Miami -2.1, while TSI only makes Miami a 1.4-point favorite. Sagarin and TeamRankings’ models are between 1.6 and 1.9 points in favor of Miami. Obviously, you’d like to get a +3 here with the Jets, but the models indicate getting +2.5 might be enough anyway.
NFL Pick: New York Jets +2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5), O/U 44.5
Philadelphia is undoubtedly the beneficiary of some lucky variance after returning a blocked kick for a touchdown against the Rams last week to get the cover – condolences if you had the Rams. They’re being priced as the defending champs, understandably so, but the data doesn’t quite support it so far this season. Our model average prediction for this game is Eagles -2.5, with a variance of just 1.3 points. TSI favors the Eagles by 3.1, while FPI only makes them a 1.8 point favorite, and Sagarin and TeamRankings are between 2.5 and 2.8 points in favor of Philly. I think this is a great spot to back Tampa Bay and the data supports it.
NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
Week 4 NFL Odds Model Disagreement
New York Giants vs. LA Chargers (-6.5), O/U 43.5
The Giants have benched Russell Wilson after another dreadful performance in a loss, and the Chargers are 3-0 straight up and ATS. The models aren’t quite sure what to do with these teams so far, as the average projection is in line with the market at -6.6, but the variance is 6.6 points. TSI and Sagarin both favor the Chargers by less than 5 in this game, while TeamRankings and FPI favor LA by 7 and 10, respectively. That’s a lot of conflicting data to sort through when evaluating this game, not to mention the uncertainty with Jaxon Dart starting at QB for New York. This is probably a stay-away.
Buffalo Bills (-15.5) vs. New Orleans Saints, O/U 47.5
It’s not often you see an NFL spread approach 17 points, as this one did before being bet down to 15.5. As you can expect with this big of a spread, the models are all over the place, with an average of 15.3 and a variance of 6.3 points. TSI is most friendly to the underdog here, projecting just a 12.8-point margin, while TeamRankings has the Bills winning by 19. FPI and Sagarin project Bills -13 and -16, respectively, so the models are split, indicating this is probably a fair line and there’s not much value to be had.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football model comparison.
