Week 4 NFL Predictions
What an exciting Monday Night Football game to end a wild Week 3 in the NFL. The Lions went into Baltimore and came out with a win in a high-scoring affair, which sends the Ravens somewhat needing a bounceback. They have to travel to Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes in Week 4. My condolences if you had the Rams plus the points Sunday, as that was one of the most remarkable backdoor covers I’ve ever seen on the blocked kick by Philadelphia, and there was also chaos at the end of the Jets game as well that swung some dollars. I’ve got my T Shoe Index—which has done very well this first few weeks of the season—updated and ready to fire on some bets for Week 4.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Arizona (pick ’em) vs. Seattle, O/U 43.5
If you have no data at your disposal and you’re only watching the scoreboards of the young NFL season so far, you’d think Seattle should be like a touchdown favorite here. Instead, they opened as a 1.5-point ‘dog at Arizona, though that line is moving – probably for the reason I outlined. However, what I’ve come to learn about the NFL (which differs drastically from college in this regard) is that the power rating exercise is incredibly more accurate when very slowly phasing out priors because the market has a good sense of what these teams are in the preseason, injuries notwithstanding. So far this season, when TSI (a blend of priors and on-field data) and my market estimation formula (which tells us how teams have been priced thus far) are aligned and opposite the on-field only formula, those plays are 9-3 ATS and 11-5 on O/Us. Call it a “system” if you want, but it’s really just pattern recognition in within my ratings and it makes sense that the betting market would (over)react to what they’re seeing on the field, similar to how we saw the Saints look like the Greatest Show On Turf for like 3 weeks last year before they turned back into a pumpkin. In this game, TSI projects Arizona -1.5 with a total of 44.5. Fitting the trend, the market estimation formula makes this game Cardinals -4.5, so I’m going to trust the numbers here in what feels like an ugly bet to make, which are often the best kind.
NFL Week 4 Pick: Arizona Cardinals PK
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) vs. Washington Commanders, O/U 45.5
Another perfect illustration of the kind of trend I’m talking about; Atlanta got shut out by Carolina (!!) last week, while Washington destroyed Las Vegas, even without QB Jayden Daniels. So, Washington is only laying 2.5 here. That’s got to be easy money, right? Not so fast, my friend. TSI obviously adjusted Atlanta down for the egg they laid, but still only projects Washington -1.5 here, and the market estimation formula favors the Falcons by a point. I think this is the mother of all bounceback spots for Atlanta, so I’m going to take the 2.5 and probably sprinkle some on the ML as well. The key takeaway here is, while you obviously have to adjust for what you’re seeing on the field, things are often not as great or as awful as they seem, so a slow roll of phasing those priors out will make your predictions much more accurate, which is why TSI is 21-14-13 ATS to start this season.
NFL Week 4 Pick: Atlanta Falcons +2.5
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