Week 5 NFL Odds
Week 4 of the NFL season isn’t quite in the books yet, but Week 5 NFL games are lined across the market and we have a new set of games to think about. There weren’t a whole lot of surprises this past weekend, so we haven’t seen too many adjustments to the lookahead lines, but there will always be a handful of tweaks due to injury or other factors.
One of the main factors is optics. The NFL is such a juggernaut of a league. Between fantasy football and betting, everybody is paying attention to more than just a game or two, which might be the case in college football or baseball. Football fans are staying up on all of the league happenings, which means the opportunity to form opinions, whether they are based on the eye test or the box score.
With such a reactionary betting market, oddsmakers have to focus a bit more on staying ahead of the curve. Not only that, but the value of numbers and prices is so much higher in this league than in most leagues, so any line move carries a certain degree of significance.
We still have two games left to go for Week 4, and Zachary Cohen has you covered with Jets vs. Dolphins and Bengals vs. Broncos. Now, we crack the seal on Week 5 and see what the NFL has in store for us.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 5 NFL Odds Report:
Odds as of Sunday, September 28 at 8 p.m. PT
49ers at Rams (-3.5, 47)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon)
As is often the case, Thursday Night Football features a division rivalry and we also get our second straight NFC West game in that primetime spotlight. After Seahawks-Cardinals last week, in which we saw Seattle bet into a road favorite, we get 49ers-Rams here. It is a quick turn for a 49ers lineup that is battered and bruised again this season, much like it was last season. The Rams are certainly in better shape here, so will we go up to 4 on this game? It does seem possible. By the way, DraftKings opened this 1.5 last week and quickly moved to 3. Most of the 3.5s out there are asking 49ers bettors to pay a little extra juice for that hook, so it’ll take some time to get to 4 if we do.
Vikings (-3.5, 36.5) vs. Browns
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)
Boy, did this game get interesting fast. The Vikings, who are already missing J.J. McCarthy, lost multiple offensive linemen in their loss to the Steelers in Dublin. Brian O’Neill left the game and didn’t return and Ryan Kelly suffered a concussion. Cleveland doesn’t do many things well, but being able to unleash Myles Garrett on an offensive line full of backups seems like a good thing. Obviously you can see the low total here, as Cleveland hasn’t scored 20 points in a game since Week 13 of last season. The Vikings got as high as -5.5 last week, but were mostly -4.5 before the Week 4 results came in.
Raiders at Colts (-6.5, 48.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Colts received a dose of reality with a touchdown loss against the Rams, but it wasn’t like they played poorly. A -2 turnover margin and 6.6 yards per play allowed were too much to overcome, but the Colts did still have nearly six yards per play themselves and maybe the game would have gone differently if Adonai Mitchell didn’t prematurely celebrate. But, it’s clear that the level of competition steps back down again here for Indy, as they’re nearly a TD favorite against the Raiders, who lost to the Bears at home and are playing their third game with long travel of the season. Kolton Miller was also lost with a sprained ankle, so that adds to the degree of difficulty. The opening lookahead line had Colts -5.5 and this adjustment seems warranted.
Giants (-2, 42.5) at Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
This game should probably be broadcast on Cartoon Network, not CBS. Then again, the Saints did put a bit of a scare into the Bills and the Giants did more than scare the Chargers, they won the game outright. It would be a stretch to say Jaxson Dart played well, as he only threw for 111 yards and took five sacks, but he did have 54 rushing yards and didn’t turn the ball over. That was good enough for the Giants to pick up the win. The Giants were favored on the lookahead line, but more like -1.5, which is still an available number at a lot of books. Let’s see if the Giants stay in that role given that Malik Nabers is out and he is one of the more valuable non-QBs given the skill position situation for the Giants.
Texans at Ravens (NL)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Lamar Jackson’s hamstring is in question here, as John Harbaugh refused to comment in the postgame if Jackson would have come back into a closer game. The Chiefs were up big, so Lamar stayed out of the game. We’ll see how quickly sportsbooks post a number here. Sometimes they’ll post a partially-adjusted line at lower limits, so like if Jackson is worth a touchdown to the line over Cooper Rush, maybe the lookahead line of -10 looks more like -5 or -4.5. I’m not sure that’ll be the case here with such a huge player’s status uncertain.
Titans at Cardinals (-9.5, 40.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
“If we keepin’ it a buck right now, we ass”. The quote that made rounds around social media summed it up pretty well for how things have gone for the Titans so far. The lookahead line was predominantly -8 or -8.5, so this isn’t a big adjustment, but the Cardinals are more desperate and also more rested after the loss to the Seahawks last Thursday night. This is rare air for the Cardinals, though, as they haven’t been favored by 7.5 or more since Week 15 in 2021 per the KillerSports database. They lost 30-12 as a 13-point favorite at Detroit. So that was a long time ago. Tennessee looks terrible, but these are lofty expectations.
Buccaneers at Seahawks (-2.5, 44.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
An asterisk on -2.5 here, as most of those are -120 in the market. Tampa Bay is expected to be without Mike Evans again and Baker Mayfield took some abuse in the game against the Eagles. The Bucs also have offensive line questions, though Tristan Wirfs did play last week. Seattle is on extra rest and is also welcoming Tampa Bay on one of the longest road trips in the league. This line has been adjusted north a point or so. Let’s see if 2.5 and -120 is the place to hold or if -3s begin popping. Circa was already there as of Sunday night.
Commanders at Chargers (-2.5, 47.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
It was not an enjoyable trip to the Meadowlands for the Chargers. They lost Joe Alt to a high-ankle sprain and that exacerbated the situation on the line with the absence of Rashawn Slater. Of course, the Chargers still should have beaten the Giants and Omarion Hampton had a monster game, so it’s understandable to see why they are still favored. The Commanders played Marcus Mariota again in a losing effort against the Falcons. Now we wait to see if Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin can play next week.
Patriots at Bills (-8.5, 49.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Those who saved the Bills in Circa Survivor or their own Survivor pools have to be pleased, as they are now available on a week where there are not a whole lot of big favorites. This AFC East battle does come on the heels of New England’s most complete performance of the season and Buffalo’s rather uninspiring showing against the Saints. As a result, we’ve seen this line adjusted down a bit. Most books were on 10 or 10.5 going into Week 4, but now that the lines have reopened for Week 5, we see 8.5s and one stray 9 as of Sunday night. Bills teasers will be extremely popular if this line stays on 8 or 8.5.
Chiefs (-3, 45.5) at Jaguars
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
I cannot wait to hear the discourse about this game all week. The overriding sentiment may be that “the Chiefs are back”. Beating up on a perennial contender like Baltimore in the first game back for Xavier Worthy is going to bring about those sorts of statements. Worthy only had two carries and led the Chiefs in rushing with 38 yards. He was also the leading receiver by yardage and targets. Couple that with Jacksonville’s misleading box score against the 49ers and Brock Purdy, as they were outgained by a full yard per play and allowed the 49ers to convert 8-of-13 third-down attempts, and I think we’re going to see an overvalued Chiefs team. The Jags did benefit from four takeaways in the win over San Francisco, but I think they’re a pretty good team. This might be that quintessential “sharp vs. square” type of game this week.
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