Week 5 NFL Odds
Welcome to the Week 5 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I analyze the NFL slate through the lens of respected predictive models to see where there is the most consensus and the most disagreement, which is valuable in determining which bets to potentially make and which ones to stay away from if the data is mixed. Here are the biggest model agreements and disagreements in Week 5.
Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.
Week 5 NFL Odds Model Alignment:
Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 47.5
Daniel Jones and the Colts have started off red hot this season, and the betting market has taken notice. They are 3-1 straight up and ATS this season, while Vegas is just 1-3 straight up and ATS. These results have pushed this line to a full touchdown, and the models indicate that has created some value on the underdog Raiders. The average model projection is Colts -5.7 with a variance of just 2.3 points. TeamRankings is the only model at the market number of 7, while TSI, FPI and SP+ all are aligned on the underdog, with projections all between 4.5 and 5.
NFL Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +7
Washington Commanders vs. LA Chargers (-3), O/U 47
The Chargers have started strong this season in Jim Harbaugh’s second season as head coach, going 3-1 straight up and ATS but are coming off a bad loss to Jaxon Dart and the New York Giants. Washington is 2-2 straight up and ATS but has had QB Jayden Daniels miss time with an injury. The models indicate that has created some value on the Commanders at +3 or better here, with an average projection of Chargers -2.5 and a variance of just 1.8 points. TSI and FPI are in line with the market at -3, but Sagarin and TeamRankings indicate this is a coin-flip game with projections of 1.5 and 2.5.
NFL Pick: Washington Commanders +3
Week 5 NFL Odds Model Disagreement
Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions (-10.5), O/U 48.5
Obviously, with a higher spread, we expect more variance in the projections. But, this particular game has some wild variance of 9.6 points with an average projection of Lions -6.9. The Bengals continue to be without QB Joe Burrow, who will miss months with a hand injury, and they’ve looked rough without him on offense and their defense has been bad well before that. The Lions just beat Baltimore in primetime, so it makes sense that they’d be lined as a huge favorite here. FPI calls for them to cover the 10.5, while TSI, Sagarin, and Teamrankings are all over the place, with projections between 1.5 and 9.5. This is definitely a pass for me.
Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans (-2), O/U 40.5
Another high-variance game due to a QB injury; Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson is out for this game as the Ravens will take on CJ Stroud and the Texans. The models (even after adjustment for the injury) are still all over the place, with an average of Texans -0.6 and a variance of 6.9. FPI calls for the Texans to cover with a projection of -4.2, while TSI and TeamRankings make it a pick ‘em, and Sagarin is still calling for a Ravens’ win. If this gets inflated to 3 I might be enticed to back the Ravens, but for now I’ll pass.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football model comparison.
