Week 6 NFL Best Bets from Will Hill:

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans -2.5 

A good spot here for the Titans, who are much better than their 1-3 record would indicate. They are off of a bye and face a beat-up Colts team that looks to be without running back Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, while quarterback Anthony Richardson is also banged up and questionable to play. With injuries on offense, the Colts will be banking on their defense to step up. Unfortunately for them, it’s a defense allowing 6 yards per play, the third-worst in the league. Two of the Titans’ three losses came in games where the Titans had the edge in yardage, including against the Bears, where the Titans dominated everywhere except the scoreboard. The Titans are home and have an underrated defense that allows 4.4 yards per play (tied for 2nd in the league), and they are rested. With two weeks to prepare for what is a must-win game, I’ll take the much better defense against the wounded Colts.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Tennessee Titans -2.5

 

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LA Chargers at Denver Broncos +3

This line assumes close to perfect health for the Broncos’ opponent, the visiting Chargers. The Chargers are off of a bye, and the last time we saw them, QB Justin Herbert was dealing with a high-ankle sprain, and their offensive line was decimated by cluster injuries. Broncos coach Sean Payton took a lot of heat after his team’s 0-2 start, but both of those games were close, and they’ve ripped off 3 straight wins since. They are playing well, and they have one of the better homefield advantages in the league. With a defense tied for 2nd in the NFL allowing only 4.4 yards per play, and a low total of 35.5 in this game, getting 3 is valuable in what should be a low-scoring game. This is a coin-flip game. I’m happy to take the field goal here. 

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Denver Broncos +3

Vikings +200 To Be the NFC 1 Seed (FanDuel)

At 5-0, the Vikings are the only undefeated team in the NFC. If the Cowboys can secure a home win on Sunday vs. the Lions, the Vikings will have a 2+ game lead on everyone in the conference, and they’ve already endured the toughest part of their schedule. With games against the Titans, Jaguars, Falcons, Cardinals and two against the Bears ahead of them, it’s hard to find many spots where the Vikings will be underdogs. In Week 7, the Vikings host the Lions and are 1.5-point favorites over the visitors on the lookahead line. The Lions are probably the biggest threat to leapfrog the Vikings, but their schedule is a gauntlet: at Cowboys, at Texans, at 49ers, Bills and two each against the Vikings and Packers. The team most people think is still the best in the NFC, the 49ers, already have three losses and lose the tiebreaker to the Vikings because of a head-to-head loss in Minnesota. As crazy as it seems, the Vikings, with their schedule, are the clear frontrunner to earn the 1 seed and a good bet at 2-1.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Vikings +200 To Be the NFC 1 Seed (FanDuel)

BONUS COLLEGE BEST BET:

Carson Beck 25-1 To Win Heisman

We see this all the time in awards markets; the favorites early in the season rarely reflect what the odds will look like at the end of the season. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is sensational, but he’s a running back who is facing middling competition. Colorado duel-threat Travis Hunter has been remarkable, but plays on a team that is still favored to lose four games this season. Also, this is a quarterback award. Seven of the last eight and 15 of the last 18 Heisman winners have been a quarterback. This is where Carson Beck comes in. Yes, Beck threw 3 INTs in his team’s biggest game of the season in a loss to Alabama. But, if you’re going to have a bad game, September is the time to have it, and even so, Beck threw for 439 yards and gave his team the lead late in the fourth quarter in Tuscaloosa. With high-profile games remaining vs Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, the chance is there for Beck to run the table and put himself squarely in this race before season’s end. 

College Football Best Bet: Carson Beck 25-1 To Win Heisman

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