Week 6 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

Let’s take a look at my Week 6 NFL best bets.

It’s not an ugly NFL schedule in Week 6, but it’s not the most attractive lineup of games, either. No one would have predicted before the season that Commanders-Ravens would be at the top of the marquee this Sunday, but that’s the case. Washington’s Jayden Daniels, the best of the rookie quarterbacks, faces Baltimore, arguably the top team in the league.

 

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The Ravens are 6.5-point home favorites at most books — DraftKings has moved to 7 — and the only bet I’ll have on the game is Baltimore on a teaser. Lamar Jackson is again playing at a MVP level and will outplay Daniels, who’s facing the NFL’s top-ranked rushing defense.

I did say repeatedly before the draft that Daniels should be the No. 1 overall pick. The Bears took Caleb Williams instead. Williams has not been bad, and nothing is set in stone this early in the season, but Daniels has looked much better. As a serious threat to win the NFC East,

Washington (4-1) is worth a bet at around 2/1 odds. My preseason play to win the division was the Eagles at +135, and Philadelphia remains the favorite at the same price. It’s a three-team race, and the Cowboys are not out of it.

I considered Dallas, a home underdog to Detroit, as a play this week, but it’s not on my final card. Here are my five best bets for Week 6:

Houston Texans (-7) at New England Patriots

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Rookie quarterback Drake Maye gets his first start for New England, which has the league’s 31st-scoring offense (12.4 ppg). Maye is working behind a bad line and will be without injured leading rusher Rhamondre Stevenson, so don’t expect Maye to make a great first impression. He could make enough plays to keep the Patriots in the game, and he should be an upgrade from the immobile Jacoby Brissett. Houston has been underachieving, and its offense will miss Nico Collins, the league leader in receiving yards. If the underdog looks too ugly, another play to consider is Under the total of 38.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: New England Patriots +7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

After three consecutive losses and an injury to Derek Carr, New Orleans is turning to rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler. I’m obligated to bet against Rattler, a fifth-round pick making his NFL debut. Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield has produced numbers (72 percent completions, 11 touchdowns, two interceptions) that put him among the league’s top quarterbacks this season. I’m on the Bucs, who are a play away from being 4-1 and buying the half-point.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-135)

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

A bye week was needed to help quarterback Justin Herbert and the Chargers get healthy, and they will get offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater back for this game. The difference should be Herbert’s ability to produce a few more plays than Broncos rookie Bo Nix. The Chargers (12.4 ppg) and Broncos (14.6) boast the league’s top two scoring defenses, so expect several punts and field goals and be leery of laying points. I used Chargers -3 as a contest play, but my bet is on the moneyline.

Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers -150

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

On the brink of going up 17-3 at Denver a week ago, the Raiders unraveled after Gardner Minshew threw a 100-yard pick-six. Minshew has been benched in favor of second-year quarterback Aidan O’Connell, who threw eight touchdown passes with no picks in the final four games of last season. O’Connell’s lack of mobility could be a problem against T.J. Watt and the Pittsburgh pressure. Las Vegas coach Antonio Pierce is desperate and running a loose ship. Simply put, I have more faith in Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, who’s off back-to-back 3-point losses. Tomlin does not have losing seasons, and he’s unlikely to lose three in a row. Still, similar to the Chargers, the -3 is a contest play, and my bet is on the moneyline.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -165

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The Jets have overtaken the Cowboys as the league’s top soap opera, which is not what a team wants, but that’s what you get with Aaron Rodgers. After Rodgers’ pitiful three-interception performance in a loss to the Vikings, the Jets fired coach Robert Saleh and demoted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett because they can’t fire Rodgers, who played poorly in all three of the team’s losses. There’s no guarantee Rodgers will play at a high level on Monday night, but it is reasonable to expect the Jets to play more inspired football for interim coach Jeff Ulbrich.

New York has an edge with a defense that ranks No. 2 in yards allowed (255.8 per game) and No. 5 in scoring (17.0 ppg). Bills quarterback Josh Allen completed only 25 of 59 passes in the past two games, losses to the Ravens and Texans, and he’s working with a subpar group of receivers. Buffalo is playing its third consecutive road game. I have bet the Jets straight up and on a teaser at +8.5.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: New York Jets +2.5

For more NFL Week 6 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 6 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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