Week 6 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

Sometimes, promotion in a newsletter like Bill Adee publishes at VSiN can be a tricky thing. I’m hoping you didn’t take my picks that he shared on Thursday night and Monday night in his morning emails as some sort of proof as to the quality (or lack thereof in this case) of my selections because those two bookend selections were 0-2 ATS. Unfortunately, my concern is that they may have overshadowed what was one of, if not the, best Sunday(s) I ever had. I enjoyed a perfect 7-0 ATS mark that day, 5-0 in the early games, and then wins with underdogs Arizona and Dallas the rest of the day. In all, for the season, the 7-2 mark brought my record to 25-16-2 ATS (61%). This is an improvement of about 4% on last year’s full-season mark, and to me, a continued validation of the process I use to handicap games. I will tell you that I rely 100% on the stats, trends, and ratings that are published on VSiN.com and are shared in the weekly NFL Analytics Report. It’s not a coincidence I have had my best 1-1/2 season run since we started building those. That said, after pouring through this week’s report, I have come up with this set of NFL Week 6 Best Bets. 

 

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San Francisco at Seattle

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (AMZN)

Those who follow my analysis each week probably understand by now that I’m not a big proponent of public games, and I’m not a fan of laying points with teams that I don’t feel deserve it. That said, there is something about this San Francisco-Seattle line that is rubbing me wrong. The 49ers are the lesser team in the standings yet are favored on the road against the first-place Seahawks. Not by 1, mind you, or even 2.5 for that matter, but 3.5? Why? I think those behind the counter believe we are going to see head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team’s best effort tonight. 

There is a lot of information to support the theory. First, favorites are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the San Francisco-Seattle series in Seattle. Second, rookie head coaches like Mike Macdonald have been far less proficient at covering point spreads at home over the last decade, 153-174-9 ATS (46.8%). Third, there has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 23-20 SU but 14-27-2 ATS (34.1%). There seems to be a more fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season. Also, home underdogs on TNF have struggled of late, going 4-18 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) in their last 22, scoring just 14.5 PPG.

If that weren’t enough, we have this rare TNF angle in play: There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 17-18 SU and 23-11-1 ATS (67.6%) record. I’m going to go against my usual line of thinking here and call for a 49ers win.
Week 6 NFL Best Bet: Let’s lay the 3.5 points with San Francisco

Jacksonville vs. Chicago

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL) – London, England

Over the last two weeks, I have gotten wins with Chicago in a pair of home games where I believe they have been underpriced. As they travel to London, I believe they are priced accurately. That said, they have demonstrated far more capability in playing at home so far than on the road. This is about as difficult a trip as it gets in the NFL, having to take the overseas travel. It’s a path the Jaguars are far more used to taking, as they not only play every year in Europe but most often twice. I think that could prove to be a big edge for head coach Doug Pederson’s team. 

Just look at what playing in London has done for QB Trevor Lawrence, who has a 3-1 record there, throwing for a total of 974 yards, two interceptions, and four touchdowns. On the other sideline, QB Caleb Williams is falling into all of the rookie QB trends seamlessly. Unfortunately for him, the results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 110-106 ATS (50.9%) in home games but just 94-115 ATS (45%) in road/neutral games. They are also just 24-45 SU and 30-38-1 ATS (44.1%) versus non-conference foes since 2018. On top of that, as I said before, the Bears are proving to be a “home team,” and as proof, Chicago is 25-42 ATS (37.3%) in road/neutral games since 2016. The public (80%+) at DraftKings loves them anyway.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: Let’s take the Jaguars +2 in their home away from home

Houston at New England

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

This week, rookie Patriots head coach Jerrod Mayo made the announcement that he would be opting for rookie QB Drake Maye to take over the offense of the struggling Patriots. I guess it takes a rookie coach to figure that a rookie quarterback who was more successful running than throwing in the preseason can solve the offensive woes of a team. Mayo’s team has scored just 26 points in the last three games combined. Unfortunately, Maye is not Jayden Daniels, and his running won’t make much difference in the regular season. 

This team needs to establish a passing threat, and from what I watched of Maye in August, he isn’t ready. Thus, I expect him to fall into the trends that most rookie QBs do: For one, Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5points or more have won just 17 games, going 17-110 SU and 49-75-3 ATS (39.5%). For two, in their last 138 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 45-93 SU & 61-75-2 ATS (44.9%). This trend dates back to 2018. 

Speaking of trends, Mayo is being afflicted by many repeating rookie head coach patterns, as they have been far less proficient at covering point spreads at home over the last decade, going 153-174-9 ATS (46.8%). They have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 30-119 SU (20.1%) & 72-75-2 ATS (49%) when catching 7 points or more since 2013. Overall, New England is 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%) as an underdog since 2021. I think too many people are focused on WR Nico Collins injury here to think the Texans will be fine without him, at least this week when it shouldn’t matter as much. They could get 17 points here and still cover handily.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: Let’s lay the 7-points on the road with Houston

Indianapolis at Tennessee

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

I loved the line much more on Sunday evening when oddsmakers had placed Tennessee as a +1-point home underdog to Indianapolis, knowing that the Titans are in one of their favorite positions this week. Since then, despite 63% of the handle and 71% of bets coming in on the Colts, the line has still moved to Titans -2.5. What gives? Is this a massive trap for Colts’ backers or a sucker’s play on Tennessee? I’m leaning to the former and I’m going to show you the reasons why. 

First off, as I said before, the Titans are in one of their favorite spots, coming out of the bye week. The Titans have won eight straight post-bye week games while going 7-0-1 ATS. They are also 12-4 SU and 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 post-bye week home games. If you look at the history of this divisional series, you will see that favorites are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the Indianapolis-Tennessee series at Tennessee as well. 

The Colts have played their two worst games of the season on the road and their three best at home. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. They’ve also won three in a row ATS rather unconvincingly, setting them up in a very bad spot according to my NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 15-39 SU and 12-38-4 ATS (24%) in game #4 since 2003.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: I’m going to trust Tennessee (-2.5) here to get the win at home

LA Chargers at Denver

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

This Chargers-Broncos game is another one where it seems like those behind the counter are pointing bettors the right way to go. Denver has won three straight games both SU and ATS to move to 3-2. Yet head coach Sean Payton’s team is a 2.5-point home dog to a 2-2 team that is having trouble scoring this season. I have to believe that they are not convinced about this Payton and QB Bo Nix offense just yet, and they are about to be facing the toughest defense they’ve faced, at least statistically speaking. 

The Chargers allowed just 12.4 PPG in their first four outings. They’ve been a little weaker against the pass, but I don’t feel that will hurt against a Broncos’ offense averaging a paltry 5.2 yards per pass attempt. That is 30th in the NFL right now. More on Nix and the typical struggles of rookie QBs, they are just 41-92 SU and 54-75-4 ATS (41.9%) versus divisional opponents since 2015. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is rested and somewhat recovered, coming out of its bye week. There are two post-bye systems backing them. First, play road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 107-45 SU and 90-58-4 ATS since 1999). Second, post-bye week road favorites vs. divisional opponents are on a 32-16 ATS surge since 2002. LA’s offense has more talent, and their numbers illustrate a team playing far too conservatively, with only 264 YPG with a respectable 4.4 YPR and 5.9 YPA numbers. I expect to see QB Herbert & Co. open it up a bit after the bye.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: Let’s lay the -2.5 with LA Chargers

Atlanta at Carolina

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

If you made it a consistent strategy to fade the most public play at DraftKings week in and week out, at the end of the season you would have a pretty formidable NFL bankroll. Some plays are even more obviously public than others. Take this one, where 87% of the handle and 86% of the bets have come in as of Thursday on the Falcons to beat the -6 points against Carolina. 

Let’s look at the obvious mainstream narrative right now. The Panthers are arguably the league’s worst team, and coming off an ugly loss at Chicago, I feel they were getting far too much oddsmaker respect. It has swung a lot the other way this week because they are taking on a Falcons team that just won a high-profile game in which their QB threw for over 500 yards. Atlanta is the obvious hot team right now, right? 

Woah…pump your brakes. Carolina was a 4-point dog on the road last week, now a 6-point dog at home to a team with the same record as last week’s opponent? You see where I’m going with this. I don’t think oddsmakers have a clue about the Panthers at this point. Well, if you ask me, they aren’t as good as last week’s line, but they aren’t as bad as this week’s. I have a few trends here to back up my thinking. First, this is a divisional series, and underdogs are on 7-1 ATS run in the Atlanta-Carolina series. Second, retread head coaches like Raheem Morris of Atlanta have been brutal bets as favorites since 2014, going 81-64 SU but just 46-88-11 ATS, for 34.3%! On top of that, veteran QBs in new homes like Kirk Cousins have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 41-30 SU, but 26-44-1 ATS (37.1%). This is a potential letdown spot. I could easily see this game decided by a late FG.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: I’ll take the +6-points with Carolina

Detroit at Dallas

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

What are your thoughts on the Cowboys this season? If you ask me, your overall thoughts will dictate where you land on Sunday for this specific game with Detroit. This is the first season in a while where it feels like the betting public, and the oddsmakers, for that matter, have turned on them. Last week, Dallas was a road underdog at Pittsburgh, and despite stumbling and bumbling at times, it came out with a huge upset win, getting a last-minute TD pass from much-maligned QB Dak Prescott. In my opinion, it could be a future-altering type of win. 

Head coach Mike McCarthy & Co. can prove it with another big win here. Not only are they underdogs, but they are pretty formidable dogs at +3 points, compared to a +1.5 line against what I believe to be a better Baltimore team in Week 3. Despite what is currently a three-game outright losing streak, Dallas is a team that has long been good at home, particularly offensively. In their last 50 home contests, since 2018, they are scoring 31.4 PPG while allowing 23.1, a very comfortable margin. 

With a bye on the horizon next week, there are several angles to suggest Dallas could be in good shape: 1) Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 32-18-3 ATS since 2015). 2) Dallas has won its last five pre-bye week games ATS overall after a 3-8 ATS skid prior – 4-0 ATS under McCarthy. And, with Detroit coming out of its bye week, play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 19-9 SU and ATS since 2019). Detroit went into the bye off two wins, but I don’t think the Lions have truly clicked yet. This is a tough line spot for a team not firing on all cylinders.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: I’ll go Dallas +3 as the home dog

Cincinnati at NY Giants

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

I saw enough information on both sides of the spread argument here regarding both teams, Sunday Night Football in general, and the current motivation levels for Cincinnati and New York that I decided to stay away from picking a winner. Good luck to you if you do.

I’m going to look at the total in this one, as the Giants haven’t played to a total of 48 or higher at home since 2021. Furthermore, only one of their last 38 home games has seen such a lofty number. Have the Bengals demonstrated consistently this season that they have the offensive prowess to command such a total? I don’t think so, and I could easily see a situation here where they struggle to get into the 20s on a Giants’ defense that is playing pretty well in 2024. 

That’s my theoretical view. In terms of trends to back up that stance, in the last 39 SNF games pitting AFC vs. NFC opponents, Under the total is 26-13 (66.7%). Also, regarding SNF, doesn’t it matter that the NY Giants have played to nine straight Unders, scoring a paltry 11.3 PPG? That shouldn’t be a surprise since they are 48-23 Under the total (67.6%) overall since 2020. However, the “grandaddy trend of them all” concerns Daniel Jones, New York QB. If you aren’t familiar, since he took over as the starting QB in 2019, New York is 23-8-2 Under the total as a home underdog. They know their chances to win aren’t great if this game gets to be a shootout.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 48 for the SNF tilt between Cincinnati & NY Giants

Buffalo at NY Jets

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Things look really bad right now in New York, huh? After losing two games in a row and scoring just 26 points in the process, the Jets elected to move on from head coach Robert Saleh. Will it matter? Was he the problem? I guess we’ll see. However, let’s not act like there aren’t problems in Buffalo right now as well, as after last week’s loss at Houston, some of my most respected colleagues were calling for head coach Sean McDermott to be on the hot seat. The Bills scored just 30 points in their last two losses and QB Josh Allen was dinged up in the process.

Well, heading into what is becoming a very important game in terms of the AFC East standings, public bettors at DraftKings are loving Buffalo as the road favorite, with 78% on both the handle and bets on that side of the ledger. As I said earlier, I really prefer to back road favorites that deserve it. I’m not convinced about the Bills, as the questions I had about them going into 2024 are coming into play. Let’s look closely at a few different angles that I feel give New York a good shot here. 

First, underdogs are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of the Bills/Jets series at New York. Second, with QB Aaron Rodgers, who is 6-1 ATS as a home dog, under fire, the results since 2005 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams at home are quite impressive, as they have gone 116-68 SU and 97-76-11 ATS (56.1%). These vet QBs are also on a 73-66 SU and 77-59-3 ATS run (56.6%) with their new teams coming off outright losses, veteran QBs have gone 73-66 SU and 77-59-3 ATS (56.6%). This trend dates back to 2016. 

If it comforts you to rely on the recent history of Monday Night Football, NFL home underdogs on MNF are on a run of 12-10 SU and 14-7-1 ATS (66.7%) dating back to September ’21. Plus, Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 33-31 SU but just 22-40-2 ATS (35.5%) in the last 64 MNF games not matching teams with identical records. The harder it is to pull the NFL trigger, the better the play, in my opinion.

Week 6 NFL Best Bet: I’m backing New York on Monday as the +2.5-point underdog

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