Week 6 NFL
Welcome to the Week 6 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I analyze the NFL slate through the lens of respected predictive models to see where there is the most consensus and the most disagreement, which is valuable in determining which bets to potentially make and which ones to stay away from if the data is mixed. Here are the biggest model agreements and disagreements in Week 6.
Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.
Week 6 NFL Odds Model Alignment:
Miami Dolphins vs LA Chargers (-4), O/U 43.5
Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers are 3-2 this season, both straight up and ATS, but they’ve dropped back-to-back games against the Giants and Commanders, failing to cover in both. Miami is just 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS and lost Tyreek Hill for the season already. The model average projection on this game is LA -3.5, with a variance of just 1.8 points. Outside of the first game of the season, Miami has been competitive in every game, and the models indicate there’s some value on the home dog here.
NFL Pick: Dolphins +4
Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) vs Arizona Cardinals, O/U 46.5
I’m not sure anyone saw this coming from Daniel Jones and the Colts. They are 4-1 straight up and ATS, and are coming off a 40-6 beatdown of the Raiders. The Cardinals are just 2-3 straight up and ATS and have lost three straight games and two straight covers. The model average projection on this game is Indianapolis -6 with a variance of 2.3 points. Only TeamRankings indicates this spread is where it should be, but the other three models all align on the Cardinals plus the points, all projecting between -5.5 and -6. It’s tough to fade the Colts but you’re paying a premium to back them these days.
NFL Pick: Cardinals +7.5
Week 6 NFL Odds Model Disagreement
Baltimore Ravens vs LA Rams (-7.5), O/U 44.5
Unsurprisingly, there’s a huge model disagreement on this game due to the fact Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson is out. I have manually adjusted the TSI projection, but presumably the other three models are just team aggregate data and not accounting for the injury. TSI projects Rams -5, FPI Rams -3.3, Sagarin projects Ravens -3.7 and TeamRankings has Ravens -0.5. I think a fair value for Jackson is 6-7 points, so if we adjust the other three models using this figure, you still get pretty decent alignment on the Ravens +7.5 here, but again, that’s an inexact science and there’s a lot of disagreement on these teams’ ratings. For what it’s worth, I still like the Over in this game.
No other games had notable disagreements with the spread this week.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football model comparison.
