NFL First Touchdown
Bye weeks started in the NFL last week, so that throws everything off a little bit in terms of looking at the First Touchdown Tracker. But, it also means we’ll get some more variance in the percentages and hopefully some stronger mismatches. It would be nice because the last couple weeks it has felt like the NFL First Touchdown Scorer market has been light on games with clearer edges than others.
Through five weeks, the Packers are the only team to score the first touchdown in every game, as they are 4-for-4 and had a bye last week. Interestingly, of the four teams on byes last week, three of them were at 75% or better in this department this season. Coming off of a week of rest and some extra planning for the next opponent, will the Packers, Falcons, and Steelers keep that momentum rolling?
Let’s look at the first team TDs by position thus far and compare that one more time to what happened last season. I’ll include the 2024 data for one more week and then shelve it.
QB: 12 (2024 regular season total: 46)
RB: 44 (2024 total: 190)
WR: 59 (2024 total: 198)
TE: 28 (2024 total: 63)
D/ST: 4 (2024 total: 21)
No TD: 9 (2024 total: 35)
2024 note: One offensive lineman scored a 1st TD last season; they are not listed at sportsbooks, so it was likely graded as ‘No Action’
For the first time this season, we had a week with zero QB first TDs for their respective teams. Running backs had 10 for the third straight week and wide receivers had eight. It was a huge week for tight ends with nine. I believe that’s the highest I’ve seen since I started tracking by position at the start of last season. Also, as you can see, through five of the 18 weeks, we are on track to crush last season’s number on tight ends. We’re on track for 100ish first TDs from TE.
Congratulations to the Raiders, who were the only team without a TD last week. They joined the Titans as the second team to score no TDs in two games.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Packers | 4/4 (100%) |
| 49ers | 4/5 (80%) |
| Bills | 4/5 (80%) |
| Chargers | 4/5 (80%) |
| Colts | 4/5 (80%) |
| Giants | 4/5 (80%) |
| Jaguars | 4/5 (80%) |
| Falcons | 3/4 (75%) |
| Steelers | 3/4 (75%) |
| Broncos | 3/5 (60%) |
| Dolphins | 3/5 (60%) |
| Eagles | 3/5 (60%) |
| Lions | 3/5 (60%) |
| Seahawks | 3/5 (60%) |
| Texans | 3/5 (60%) |
| Bears | 2/4 (50%) |
| Browns | 2/5 (40%) |
| Bucs | 2/5 (40%) |
| Cardinals | 2/5 (40%) |
| Commanders | 2/5 (40%) |
| Cowboys | 2/5 (40%) |
| Panthers | 2/5 (40%) |
| Raiders | 2/5 (40%) |
| Rams | 2/5 (40%) |
| Ravens | 2/5 (40%) |
| Bengals | 1/5 (20%) |
| Chiefs | 1/5 (20%) |
| Patriots | 1/5 (20%) |
| Saints | 1/5 (20%) |
| Vikings | 1/5 (20%) |
| Jets | 0/5 (0%) |
| Titans | 0/5 (0%) |
As mentioned, the Packers are the only perfect team. The Jets and Titans are the only teams to not score the first TD in a game yet this season. The teams on byes this week are the Vikings and Texans.
Derrick Henry joined the ranks of the players with three first team TDs this season, along with Jahmyr Gibbs and Rome Odunze. None of Henry’s first TDs have been the game’s first TD. Last season, Henry had Baltimore’s first TD seven times and all seven were the game’s first TD.
2024 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2024:
| Ravens | 16/19 (84.2%) |
| Eagles | 16/21 (76.2%) |
| Lions | 12/18 (66.7%) |
| Bengals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Cardinals | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Colts | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Bucs | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Packers | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Vikings | 11/18 (61.1%) |
| Texans | 11/19 (57.9%) |
| Chiefs | 11/20 (55%) |
| Falcons | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Patriots | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Commanders | 10/20 (50%) |
| Broncos | 9/18 (50%) |
| Chargers | 9/18 (50%) |
| Bills | 9/20 (45%) |
| 49ers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Panthers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Titans | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Seahawks | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Dolphins | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Jaguars | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Saints | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Cowboys | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Jets | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Raiders | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Rams | 6/19 (31.6%) |
| Bears | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Browns | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Giants | 4/17 (23.5%) |
| Steelers | 4/18 (22.2%) |
With that, let’s get to the Week 6 action and look at some big mismatches from 2024 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible. As mentioned, I’ll include 2024 numbers for 1-2 weeks until we get some decent 2025 data.
NFL Week 6 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025 & 2024
Eagles (60%; 76.2%) at Giants (80%; 23.5%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Broncos (60%; 50%) vs. Jets (0%; 35.3%) (London) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Cardinals (40%; 64.7%) at Colts (80%; 64.7%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Chargers (80%; 50%) at Dolphins (60%; 41.2%)
Patriots (20%; 52.9%) at Saints (20%; 41.2%)
Browns (40%; 29.4%) at Steelers (75%; 22.2%)
Cowboys (40%; 35.3%) at Panthers (40%; 47.1%)
Seahawks (60%; 41.2%) at Jaguars (80%; 41.2%)
Rams (40%; 31.6%) at Ravens (40%; 84.2%)
Titans (0%; 47.1%) at Raiders (40%; 35.3%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Bengals (20%; 64.7%) at Packers (100%; 61.1%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
49ers (80%; 47.1%) at Buccaneers (40%; 61.1%)
Lions (60%; 66.7%) at Chiefs (20%; 55%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Bills (80%; 45%) at Falcons (75%; 52.9%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Bears (50%; 29.4%) at Commanders (40%; 50%) – 9:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 6 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Denver Broncos: Troy Franklin +1200, Evan Engram +1400
I’ll be taking a couple shots on pass catchers for Denver here. The Jets have allowed the first TD in all five games. Thus far, four of them have been passing TDs. So far, they are Ben Skowronek (PIT), James Cook (BUF), Mike Evans (TB), Darren Waller (MIA), and Jake Ferguson (DAL).
Franklin leads the Broncos in red zone targets with seven and also leads with five catches. Call me crazy, but I think it makes sense that former Oregon QB Bo Nix would look for one of his college teammates that he played with for two seasons.
In terms of Engram, who missed time in training camp after coming over from the Jaguars, he’s only playing about 40% of the snaps through four games, but he has 13 targets in the last two games and eight catches. He also scored his first TD of the season last week. Against a Jets defense that has allowed TE to score the first TD the last two weeks, and has already allowed a league-high five touchdowns to TE.
Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs +270, Tucker Kraft +800
The two short shots on the board for the Packers, but it is what it is. Jacobs already has 22 red zone carries in four games. Only Jonathan Taylor and Jahmyr Gibbs have more and they’ve played five games each. The Bengals have already surrendered six rushing touchdowns and Jacobs is going to get the ball in the scoring areas.
Kraft actually follows a similar path to Engram. The Bengals have allowed the most targets and second-most receptions to tight ends. They’re also tied with three teams who have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends. Sam LaPorta had the first TD last week for Detroit and Josh Oliver had the first TD three weeks ago for Minnesota. In between, Bo Nix had a rushing score.
The Bengals scored first and on their first possession against the Browns, who then went right downfield on their first possession. In four of their five games, the Bengals have given up a TD to the opposition on their first possession. I’ll take my chances with Green Bay’s two most likely players on a Matt LaFleur scripted drive after a bye.
Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze +1000, Caleb Williams +1700
This isn’t what I would consider a mismatch, but I’m going to take a shot on an elite play-caller coming off of the bye. In his three seasons as OC of the Lions, Ben Johnson’s team had the first TD in 36/55 games, including the first TD in 2023 and 2024 in the team’s return from a bye. Last season, the Lions scored on their opening possession.
Odunze already has three first team TDs on the season, so he makes sense with six targets in the red zone out of 15 total for wide receivers. With Williams, I’m just taking a shot here on a mobile QB. The Commanders have only allowed three total TDs to running backs this season, so I wonder if there’s a good angle for Williams getting a carry inside the five. He already has eight rushing attempts for 41 yards and one TD in the red zone.
The Commanders are 1/3 with Jayden Daniels in the lineup and they’ve only scored two offensive touchdowns in the first quarter thus far.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article in 2022-23 and the tracker.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 6 content in our Betting Hub.
