Week 6 NFL Odds
Week 5 in the NFL is not quite done, but teams, fans, oddsmakers, and bettors have shifted their focus to the Week 6 NFL games. At least fans that don’t root for the Chiefs and Jaguars, but we’ve got Zachary Cohen’s Monday Night Football preview for you to check out.
Upsets were the theme of Week 5, as the Titans and 49ers won with some big Survivor implications and we also saw the Bills go down as well. A lot of the early-season talk was about how favorites were basically invincible, but as is often the case with sports, things tend to regress to the mean.
As I talked about last week, the NFL is a very reactionary betting market. Everybody adjusts to what we’ve most recently seen on both sides of the counter. It helps that we have a guide to work from based on the lookahead lines that get posted, and I’d encourage you to check out Mike Somich’s weekly article with some lookahead bets that he’s made.
Let’s examine the Week 6 NFL schedule and see what the lines look like now, what they looked like last week, and how they could move heading into kickoff.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 6 NFL Odds Report:
Odds as of Sunday, October 5 at 11:30 p.m. PT
Eagles (-7, 42) at Giants
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon)
Are we in for another divisional dog upset? This one seems a lot less likely, but the Giants are at home and the 49ers were on the road. Fortunately, Philly doesn’t have to go far at all here on the short week, so that shouldn’t be much of an issue. We do have a rookie QB in Jaxson Dart for the Giants and, while they were victorious in his first start, losing to the Saints is a bad look. The Eagles didn’t look themselves blowing a 17-3 lead in the fourth quarter against Denver, so this line basically reopened right where it was before Sunday’s games.
Broncos (-7, 43.5) vs. Jets (London)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)
Back across the pond we go for a second straight game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Denver and New York have pretty similar trips here, as the Broncos just head to Europe from Philadelphia and it will be a much happier flight following their 18-point fourth quarter than it would have been otherwise. The Jets continue to stink and got blown out by the Cowboys, so we did see a mild adjustment here, with Denver going from -6.5 to -7 or even -7.5. I’m guessing we’ll see 7.5s as the prevailing number here, as the Broncos are starting to look like what we envisioned before the season and the Jets are a rudderless ship with their own version of Captain Jack Sparrow.
Browns at Steelers (-5, 37.5)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Pittsburgh comes off the bye to host Cleveland, while the Browns lick more wounds as they fell to the Vikings on a last-minute touchdown in London. At least Dillon Gabriel looked pretty good. But, there are a lot of questions still with this roster and Kevin Stefanski’s uber-conservative play-calling may very well have cost the Browns a win. That’s going to be the talk around town this week. But, because Gabriel looked decent and the Steelers didn’t play, this line slid a little bit and actually reopened -4.5 at Superbook and DraftKings. Circa actually popped 4 here, but that took some quick Steelers money.
Cardinals at Colts (-5.5, 47)
1 p.m. ET (FOX)
You knew this line was going to go up and it did. Most lookahead markets had -3.5 or maybe -4 on this Cardinals vs. Colts tilt, but losing to the Titans is bad for business and really bad for perception. Arizona’s collapse at home to Cam Ward and a team he described as “ass” after the game the week prior doesn’t pair well with the Colts taking the Raiders to the woodshed. Truth be told, even though we’re all waiting for Daniel Jones’ out-of-body experience to end, I think this line still has room to grow. I bet we see 6s before we find out if anybody wants to back the traveling birds with an early kick.
Rams (-7.5, 45) at Ravens
1 p.m. ET (FOX)
It turns out that life without Lamar Jackson is tough. Houston was adjusted all the way into a road favorite with the perennial MVP candidate sidelined and that move was not only right, but not nearly enough. Houston crushed Baltimore and now the Rams are laying over a touchdown after they lost at home to a deeply-depleted 49ers bunch in a primetime spot that everybody saw. Yes, the Rams probably should have won that game, but they didn’t. We even had a rogue 8 at Circa on Sunday night here with a line that was reposted north of the key number of 7. Even though there’s probably some measure of line equity on Baltimore here, I’m not sure anybody wants to play them after what we just saw.
Cowboys (-3.5, 48.5) at Panthers
1 p.m. ET (FOX)
While the Cowboys were having fun putting up video game numbers against the Jets, the Panthers were struggling their way through the early part of the game against the Dolphins. And then something changed and all of the sudden, Carolina erased a 17-0 deficit and won on a late touchdown drive orchestrated by Bryce Young. I am extremely curious to know where this line would have opened had Carolina continued down the path of despair that it looked like they were on. Instead, they won and the 3.5s that were prevalent last week are still prevalent now, though we have seen a bump in the total after another Dallas offensive barrage.
Chargers (-5.5, 44.5) at Dolphins
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
So, I think this is the most difficult game to figure out this week. I genuinely don’t know what that was at home from the Chargers against the Commanders. LA started the season so strong with wins in three straight division games and they’ve now lost to the Giants and then the Commanders at home by 17. And now they’re going right back east for another early kick against Miami. The Dolphins stink and a blown lead to the Panthers turned Mike McDaniel’s seat up a few more degrees. I cannot imagine being eager to lay it with the Chargers here, but I can’t imagine being enthralled with taking Miami either.
Patriots (-3.5, 45.5) at Saints
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Saints won a game! The Patriots won a more impressive game! And Drake Maye looked very good in a primetime, standalone spot. I think we’re looking at a move to 4 here before anybody with influence really entertains a New Orleans play. Obviously it looks like a letdown spot for New England coming off of a Buffalo game, but this team put itself in a tough situation early by letting some winnable games slip by. The Saints beating the Giants should put New England on notice. I think there’s enough ammo to push this line up and then we’ll see if brave souls back the Saints.
Titans at Raiders (-6, 41.5)
4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
Hmmmm. So, the Titans come back and beat the Cardinals. The Raiders get embarrassed in Indy. And this line really doesn’t move a whole lot. Both Superbook and DraftKings had lookahead numbers of 6.5, while Fanduel even hit 7 earlier today when action was coming in on the game. I have to be honest, this line is hard to wrap my head around. Nothing I’ve seen from the Raiders would show me that they can cover this number. And yet, it’s probably 7 if Emari Demercado holds on to the football while crossing the goal line. I think we’re going to see some Titans interest here under the pretense that they are “improving” with Cam Ward. Maybe laying the ugly favorite is the right side.
49ers at Buccaneers (-3, 47.5)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
CBS draws a real good one in the 4:25 p.m. ET window here, though we’ll have to wait and see if Brock Purdy is good to go. The Buccaneers went to Seattle and stole one from the Seahawks with yet another gutsy and gritty Baker Mayfield effort. This lookahead line was -1.5 or -2 to -2.5 depending on where you look. San Francisco is on extra rest and will maybe get some firepower back, but the Bucs also just keep winning in the face of offensive line and wide receiver injuries. I do think as we get a clearer picture of who is in and who is out for San Francisco, that’s when we’ll see the activity on this game liven up. For now, I expect a holding pattern.
Bengals at Packers (-14, 44)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
It takes a lot to be a 14-point underdog in the NFL, but the Bengals found a way to achieve it. Despite some cosmetic touches on the scoreboard in the fourth quarter against the Lions, it felt like they were never really in that game as a double-digit underdog at home. Now they draw a Green Bay team on some extra rest and it has a “hide the women and children” feel to it with the Packers back on the field for the first time since giving up a 40 burger to the Cowboys on the heels of projectile vomiting all over themselves in Cleveland. If they get the chance to run it up, they will.
Bills (-4.5, 49.5) at Falcons
Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
A double dose of Monday Night Football again, as the Bills and Falcons play the first game. Any time a good team like Buffalo loses, I think there’s a propensity to just shrug it off. The old “poop happens” expression. We didn’t see anything out of Atlanta last week because they were on a bye. So, we have one ugly data point, but one from a really good football team. We didn’t have a data point from a mediocre football team. And so this line moving from 5.5 to 4.5 makes sense, but it’s still in that proverbial dead zone between 4 and 6. Of course, that “dead zone” isn’t as dead with missed extra points and whatnot, but we still didn’t really cross any numbers of consequence. I think the thought will be that Buffalo bounces back, potentially setting up a “sharp vs. square”, “pros vs. joes” type of game if those influential groups want Atlanta.
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Bears at Commanders (-4.5, 50)
8:15 p.m. ET (ABC)
Here’s another example of an impressive data point versus no data point. Chicago was one of four teams idle last week. Meanwhile, with a healthy-ish Jayden Daniels, the Commanders went out west and took it to what we all thought was a pretty good Chargers team. There will be some love for the Bears and Ben Johnson with a bye week to prepare his troops for battle. But, that Commanders effort was as good as any that we saw in Week 5. Daniels has an extra day to get better and Jacory Croskey-Merritt had that breakout game that many were waiting for. I gotta be honest, I liked the 5.5 more than the current 4 or 4.5. Even DraftKings had 3.5 with additional vig on Sunday night.
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