Week 7 NFL Best Bets and Props from Mike Somich:

Let’s take a look at my Week 7 NFL best bets:

 

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Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3, 43.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

As tempted as I am to play the Over here as my best bet in the game, let’s look to a side instead.

Miami is entering this game off the Bye and has been attracting sharp money before the news that Anthony Richardson would be the starter. The goal of the bye for Miami was to get Tyler Huntley fully integrated into this offense, and I expect Miami to be able to move the football effectively this week because of it.

Don’t let last week’s defensive effort from the Colts fool you. They still stink. Tony Pollard could get whatever he wanted on the ground, and Will Levis held the offense back through the air. Miami should be able to replicate the success on the ground when they have the football. The passing attack will not be able to carve up the Colts, but they should be able to outpace the Titans’ numbers last game and their own totals in the previous two starts.

On the flip side of the ball, the Colts’ switch at quarterback is a downgrade in my numbers. While I still like the upside of Richardson, Joe Flacco would give the Colts a better chance to win right now. The loss of Jonathan Taylor in the backfield matters, and the Dolphins’ secondary matches up well against this Colts WR room.

Prop-wise, I like both De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert Over their rushing totals.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Dolphins +3

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, Total 50.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

In one of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend, I expect there to be points.

The Lions enter the game with multiple ways to attack this defensive unit from the Vikings. The big scare here is Brian Flores with the extra week to prepare for this offense, but his blitz happy scheme should help Detroit in this spot. We consistently hear about how Goff folds under pressure, and that is correct, but this Lions O-line is one of the best in the league, and when opponents blitz and do not get home, Goff can cook. The sheer number of weapons also pose a threat to this Vikings D. Jameson Williams has emerged as a legit WR1 for a team that already had one. When you add in LaPorta and the dual threat in the backfield, I expect this Lions offense to score.

The Lions’ defense, on the other hand, should struggle in this spot. The loss of Aidan Hutchinson cannot be overstated for a team that relied on him for more than 60% of their QB pressures this season. He also helped mask a weak secondary that will now have to try to stop an elite 1-2 WR combo without consistent pressure on Sam Darnold. Stylistically, this is also a rough matchup for the Lions. They struggle against early down play-action and that is exactly where this Vikings team and Darnold have excelled.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Over 50.5

Prop Plays

Geno Smith Over 263.5 Passing Yards
I would have loved to fire on the Seahawks here, and I still lean in that direction, but I like the Smith Over passing prop the most in this spot. Seattle’s D is banged up, so Atlanta should be able to move the football, which means Geno will need to keep throwing. He’s got three very good wide receiver targets and is facing a Falcons defense that cannot create an ounce of pressure. Like the 300+ number at +220 as well.

JK Dobbins Over 75.5 Rush Yards
It’s a big number for a rushing prop, but this matchup for Dobbins is too good to pass up. The Chargers offensive line is back to full strength again, and Dobbins has the backfield all to himself against a putrid run defense in Arizona.

Other Plays
New York Jets -1.5
New England Patriots +6
Green Bay Packers -2.5

For more NFL Week 7 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 7 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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