NFL First Touchdown
Another set of results has been locked in on the First Touchdown Tracker and we head into Week 7 armed with a pretty decent data set. That doesn’t mean that these will come easy by any means, but the goal is to pick the team that is more likely to score the first TD and then hope to land on the right player when honing in more and more on that team and their opponent. NFL First Touchdown Scorer prices can vary greatly, so make sure you have multiple outs to do some price shopping.
We went into last week with one perfect team in the First Touchdown department and they are still the only one, as the Packers are a perfect 5-for-5. Three teams are 5-for-6, and you probably wouldn’t have expected any of the three to be doing that well up to this point.
On the flip side, the Jets and Titans are perfectly imperfect, as they’ve both failed to score first in all six games. The Jets seemingly have a decent chance this week against the Panthers at home. The Titans? Well, I guess we’ll see!
Let’s look at the first team TDs by position thus far and compare that one more time to what happened last season. This time, though, I’ll show the 2025 numbers and last week’s numbers. One final time, 2024 was QB: 46; RB: 190; WR: 198; TE: 63; D/ST: 21; No TD: 9…one offensive lineman scored a 1st TD last season and they aren’t listed, so it was probably graded ‘No Action’.
QB: 2 (14)
RB: 10 (54)
WR: 8 (67)
TE: 7 (35)
D/ST: 0 (4)
No TD: 3 (9)
An interesting split last week, especially when you consider that some of the running backs were actually fullback types. This is the fourth straight week that running backs have had 10 first team TDs. And the second straight with eight for wide receivers. Interestingly, over the last two weeks, WR have 16 first team TDs and so do tight ends. After 63 were scored last season, we are on pace to destroy that number this season.
The Ravens, Browns, and Jets were last week’s teams that had only field goals.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Packers | 5/5 (100%) |
| Colts | 5/6 (83.3%) |
| Giants | 5/6 (83.3%) |
| Jaguars | 5/6 (83.3%) |
| Falcons | 4/5 (80%) |
| Steelers | 4/5 (80%) |
| 49ers | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Bills | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Broncos | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Chargers | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Dolphins | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Bears | 3/5 (60%) |
| Texans | 3/5 (60%) |
| Bucs | 3/6 (50%) |
| Cowboys | 3/6 (50%) |
| Eagles | 3/6 (50%) |
| Lions | 3/6 (50%) |
| Raiders | 3/6 (50%) |
| Rams | 3/6 (50%) |
| Seahawks | 3/6 (50%) |
| Browns | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Cardinals | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Chiefs | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Commanders | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Panthers | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Patriots | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Ravens | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Vikings | 1/5 (20%) |
| Bengals | 1/6 (16.7%) |
| Saints | 1/6 (16.7%) |
| Jets | 0/6 (0%) |
| Titans | 0/6 (0%) |
As mentioned, Green Bay remains unblemished and the Jets and Titans are nothing but blemished.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) Top Scorers by Team
I’m also tracking players to score at least three first team TDs for their teams. Here is that list:
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 3 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 3 | 2 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 3 | 2 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 3 | 0 |
Obviously Tyler Warren was not on this list last season, as he was still at Penn State. Williams led everybody with 13 first TDs for his team last season and six were the game’s first. Henry had a 7/7 split, so all seven of his first TDs were the game’s first. Gibbs was 6/5, Achane was 5/2, and Odunze did not make the cut last season with two first team TDs.
We’ll work just off of 2025 numbers moving forward in the article, but as I’m doing my research, I’ll be looking back at them. If you want to see them dating back to 2022, they are in the First Touchdown Tracker.
With that, let’s get to the Week 7 action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 7 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Steelers (80%) at Bengals (16.7%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Rams (50%) at Jaguars (83.3%) (London) – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Saints (16.7%) at Bears (60%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Dolphins (66.7%) at Browns (33.3%)
Patriots (33.3%) at Titans (0%)
Raiders (50%) at Chiefs (33.3%)
Giants (83.3%) at Broncos (66.7%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Colts (83.3%) at Chargers (66.7%)
Commanders (33.3%) at Cowboys (50%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Packers (100%) at Cardinals (33.3%)
Falcons (80%) at 49ers (66.7%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Buccaneers (50%) at Lions (50%) – Monday, 7 p.m. ET
Texans (60%) at Seahawks (50%) – 10 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 7 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Chicago Bears: D.J. Moore +1000, Cole Kmet +1900
The Saints have allowed the first touchdown in five straight games. In those games, all of them have been passing scores, with three wide receivers and two tight ends. The reason I don’t go with Rome Odunze here, who leads the Bears in first team TDs and red zone targets, is because of who the Saints have allowed to score.
The tight ends are Theo Johnson and Luke Farrell, who had taken over for the injured George Kittle. New Orleans has allowed four touchdowns to tight ends, but just the 14th-most yards and 17th-most catches, so it’s not like they’re giving up volume to the position. But, they are giving up opportunities in the red zone. Kmet has three red zone targets and one TD catch.
The wide receivers are DeMario Douglas, Khalil Shakir, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Those guys are all six feet and under. It may not matter much, but I do think that the Saints are struggling to cover crossers, underneath stuff, and pick routes inside the 20 based on the red zone data. I would expect Moore to have more of that stuff in his route tree in the scoring areas. He has caught both of his red zone targets with one touchdown. He also has one carry for six yards.
Miami Dolphins: De’Von Achane (+500), Julian Hill (+3500), Alec Ingold (+6000)
Who the hell is Julian Hill? Fair question. I’ll get back to that in a second.
Windy is an understatement for Sunday’s game in Cleveland based on the forecast. Wind gusts could approach 50-60 mph on the shores of Lake Erie. Throwing the football will be difficult. So will kicking it. I considered either defense to score first as any sort of errant throw could become a pick six. Miami has scored the first TD in four straight games.
Achane seems smart. Mike McDaniel is still a decent offensive mind, even if he’s going to lose his job soon. Cleveland has scored two touchdowns in two Dillon Gabriel starts and the offensive line is terrible. I feel like Miami should score first here. Ollie Gordon II has been a red zone option with seven carries, but Achane has nine of them and four targets, as he’s scored four total tuddies inside the 20. With short throws probably the only real option, he’s the better back for that. He has three first team TDs and has scored first each of the last two weeks.
Okay, so who the hell is Julian Hill? Well, I’ve asked myself “who the hell is that guy?” a few times lately with the Browns. Against the Packers, TE John FitzPatrick scored the first TD. Against the Steelers, FB Connor Heyward scored the first TD. Against the Ravens, Tylan Wallace scored the first TD. Against the Vikings, TE Josh Oliver scored the first TD. So, we’ve got two tight ends, a fullback, and a wide receiver way down the depth chart. And then there was Jahmyr Gibbs against the Lions.
Hill is TE2 behind Darren Waller. He played 64.4% of the offensive snaps last week and hasn’t played fewer than 50.9%. And he has three red zone targets!
Maybe Waller takes a big step forward with his pitch count this week in his fourth consecutive game, but the Browns are losing track of third, fourth, and fifth options in the red zone, so why not take a gamble on a couple of big prices in a game where weather will play a huge factor. It’s not like 35/1 or 60/1 are full-unit plays. I’d go .10, .15, or .20, something like that in hopes of hitting a jackpot. Ingold intrigues me because Tua Tagovailoa running into a huge group of people at the goal line seems ill-advised, so why not use a bowling ball fullback instead?
By the way, if you want a Browns player, Dillon Gabriel at 25/1 is really interesting, as the Dolphins have allowed four rushing TDs to QBs.
Note: I will add another team on Friday, but with not all of the games lined at DraftKings at time of writing, I wanted to get this out in advance of Thursday Night Football.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article in 2022-23 and the tracker.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 7 content in our Betting Hub.
