Week 8 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:
If we are to believe what we are being told, the last two weeks were absolutely dreadful for the books in terms of their NFL hold, as the public apparently wiped the floor with them. If that is the case, I guess I have been very fortunate, as after last week’s 6-2 ATS performance, my two-week record is 10-7 ATS, almost right at my season average. In the past, in weeks in which the public thrived, I would have tanked, so perhaps I am growing a handicapper. Either that, or I’ve simply not been taking the games the public is heavily invested in. With the consistency I’ve had the last couple of seasons, I actually credit the VSiN NFL Analytics Report for keeping me grounded. Whatever the case, I’m thankful and ready to push on to Week 8 NFL best bets. With a season mark of 35-23-2 ATS (60.3%), this is what I’m looking at for the upcoming weekend.
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Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Though the Vikings’ success has been attributed to QB Sam Darnold and his remarkable rise to MVP candidate, the overlooked aspect of this team has been the amazing turnaround by the defense. That unit is doing everything well, from getting sacks to turnovers to holding teams off the scoreboard. Even last week, I thought they played tough against what could arguably be the league’s best offensive unit in Detroit. So far, for 2024, Minnesota is allowing just 17 effective points per game and holding teams 5.5 points below their season averages. The Rams are scoring 3.5 points fewer on average than their opponents allow. LA is expected to score only around 14 points on Thursday.
Public bettors aren’t buying it, with 71% of the handle on the Over as of this writing: The magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 and 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). This matchup also features several TNF/primetime trends that suggest it could be a defensive struggle. First, in terms of totals, 16 of the last 22 (72.7%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under. The Rams are on a 13-4 Under primetime surge, while Minnesota is 21-11 UNnderin primetime since 2015.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s play UNDER 47.5 in MIN-LAR
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
In my opinion, people thinking that QB Jameis Winston is going to immediately turn around the fortunes of the struggling Browns need to slow their roll, particularly with the arguably best team in the league coming to town. Yes, I could see where a game like this could be tricky for a team, as road favorites of over a TD aren’t usually my cup of tea. However, with this being a divisional game and a heated rivalry typically, I don’t think the Ravens will take it lightly.
Typically, head coach John Harbaugh’s team plays well at the Dawg Pound, as Baltimore is on a 13-3 ATS run at Cleveland. They are also coming into this game red-hot, and NFL teams that have won their last five games outright or more have gone 49-11 SU and 39-19-2 ATS (67.2%) since 2003 as road favorites against divisional opponents. They are 41-20 ATS in road/neutral games since 2017. Cleveland, meanwhile, is on a 30-42 ATS slide at home as well as 19-36 ATS in divisional games. My effective strength numbers show that the Ravens are currently 16.7 PPG better than the Browns. Laying -8.5 seems like a rather small price to pay.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: I’m willing to lay the -8.5 on the road with Baltimore
Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
I’ve seen several prognosticators this week indicating that Green Bay is in the “trap game of the week” because it just beat Houston in a tough game and has a date with Detroit next. However, when there is a game getting this much trap support, it usually turns out to be wrong. Here’s the thing: the Packers haven’t been an up-and-down team in 2024, they’ve been a consistent performer, and the only two games they’ve lost were by a combined five points to two respected teams. While head coach Matt LaFleur has been around, they are 64-33 SU and 57-37 ATS. You don’t get that way by taking teams lightly or taking games off.
While I don’t like that this is a “public game” as of Thursday, with 89% of support for GB on both handle and bets at DraftKings, in NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were actually quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). The recent history of this series shows that road teams are on a 5-1 ATS surge in theGB-JAC h2h series as well. Plus, Jacksonville is 10-34 ATS (22.7%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014. If you need something from a numbers/ratings perspective, my Effective Strength Ratings show Green Bay is at +7.4, and Jacksonville is -7.6. In other words, there is a 15 points per game difference as to how these teams have performed on the field this season.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 3.5-points with Green Bay
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
I can understandably see where the concern for the Tampa Bay offense now lies, with both of its stud WRs out, and we have seen teams missing multiple weapons not looking themselves. I have adjusted my ratings accordingly and I still believe that oddsmakers have taken their adjustments way too far. To me, QB Baker Mayfield’s resurgence has as much to do with the Bucs’ success as anything else. Using my Effective Strength Ratings as a guide, TB currently as a +5.1 ESR, while Atlanta is a -0.7. Giving TB 1.5 points for home field, it would assume they should be favored by 7.3 points here before any injury adjustments. That is saying that this game has been adjusted by almost 10 points for the Godwin/Evans injuries. Overkill, in my opinion. This is still a rivalry game and a battle for the division lead. Of course, the Bucs are going to show up.
That said, 78% of the handle and 63% of the bets in as of Thursday were on the Falcons, and since the start of the ’22 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). We also have the dreaded chalk trend on “retread” coaches like Atlanta’s Raheem Morris, as they’ve gone 84-66 SU but just 49-90-11 ATS, for 35.3% as favorites! If you recall, this is a rematch of a thriller from just a few weeks ago when QB Kirk Cousins lit up the Tampa Bay defense for 500+ yards. With that in mind, when having that team the first time around, retread coaches have gone just 9-18-1 ATS (33.3%) in the rematch. And speaking of Cousins in his new home this season, since the start of the 2004 season, veteran starting quarterbacks playing their first seasons with new teams have performed terribly in the road favorite role, 42-31 SU but 27-45-1 ATS (37.5%).
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: I expect a big fight still from Tampa Bay at +2.5
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Speaking of lines adjusted for injuries, what in the world happened with this Chicago-Washington game? I realize QB Jayden Daniels could miss the contest, but according to my power ratings, oddsmakers have adjusted the game 7 points for a rookie quarterback. That seems extreme, particularly with how well backup Marcus Mariota performed in Daniels’ absence last week. Mariota isn’t a throw-away backup; he’s a veteran guy who has had success at many stops. Last week, he was 18-23 for 205 yards and 2 TDs, an impressive 8.9 yards per attempt. Perhaps there is something more to this new Washington system under Kliff Kingsbury than he is being given credit for. The Commanders are 5-2, a first place team, and scoring 31.1 PPG. You don’t find that type of team catching 3 points at home very often, even with a backup QB.
For as much as Washington’s strength shouldn’t be questioned much right now, Chicago’s worthiness really could be. The Bears have literally played no one good other than Houston, and while the Bears covered that game, they were outplayed significantly. They have played the league’s worst schedule by almost 2 power rating points per game by my numbers. This will be a real test for QB Caleb Williams & Co. The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 111-110 ATS (50.2%) in home games but just 96-116-1 ATS (45.3%) in road/neutral games. Over the last 12 seasons, rookie starting quarterbacks have also proven not worthy of backing as road favorites, going 22-20 SU but 18-23-1 ATS (43.9%).
The Bears are off a bye and will be rested. However, this post-bye week systems indicates they are in a tough spot: Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 20-10 SU and ATS since 2019). As a franchise, they are 1-9 SU and is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 post-bye week games, outscored by 12.8 PPG in the nine losses. On top of that, CHICAGO is 26-42 ATS (38.2%) in road/neutral games since 2016, and WASHINGTON is 20-9-1 ATS (69%) when coming off SU win since 2019.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s go with Washington +3 as a very live home dog
Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
If you look at all of the games on this week’s NFL board, there isn’t a single other one in which both teams are scoring 25 PPG or more. In terms of effective points, both the Bills and Seahawks are averaging at least 26.7 PPG. The reason I bring this up is because there are three other games that post higher totals than this one. Looking closer at my effective points numbers right now, Seattle is allowing opponents to score 4.1 PPG more than their current averages. The Bills are putting up 6.1 PPG more than their opponents typically allow.
Using the math on that, Buffalo should be expected to score 31 points in this game ((32.5 +29.5)/2). If that happens, it seems like a sure-fire lock that this game would surpass the 47 total, especially with how the Seattle offense erupted last week in hanging 34 points on Atlanta on the road. The Seahawks haven’t been held to fewer than 20 points in a single game this season, while it has only happened to Buffalo once. I can’t imagine seeing a game with this level of offensive consistency not at least threaten the Over closely. If the stats and the red-hot quarterbacks aren’t enough, perhaps you might be interested in a head-to-head trend that shows that all 10 games in BUF-SEA series since 1995 went Over the total.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Got to go with OVER 47 in Buffalo-Seattle on Sunday
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
One of the games on this week’s NFL board matches perhaps the league’s most consistent road point spread covering team of recent years against what could be the least consistent home team in that regard. And luckily, the teams are in those roles for this week. The Saints have gone 35-19 ATS on the road since 2019, while the Chargers are just 32-48-1 ATS at home over the last decade. That was then, and this is now, so we have to consider the chances of those tendencies continuing with the current teams. I think there are some good pieces in place to say they will.
The Saints come in with injury concerns but also with extra rest, having not played since Thursday the 17th. The betting world is down on them significantly too, and how could you not be after losing a home game to Denver, 33-10. However, New Orleans is also on a 26-20 ATS run when coming off an outright loss. The Chargers also come off a loss, but theirs was in a much more disappointing fashion, a last-second field goal on Monday night in Arizona. Therefore, this is almost like a bye scenario in terms of the rest for each team.
We also have some very interesting trends to consider, with head coach Jim Harbaugh returning to LA as a “retread coach.” 1) Retread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 81-115-1 ATS (41.3%). Road/Neutral games – 98-104-1 ATS (48.5%). 2) Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2014, they’ve gone 84-66 SU but just 49-90-11 ATS, for 35.3%! 3) When coming off a loss, their record has been an ugly 105-140-1 ATS (42.9%) in that same time span. The Chargers are only scoring 17.7 PPG. When you kick a lot of field goals, things have to go very right to cover big lines like this.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s take the Saints in the +7-point underdog role here
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 4:20 p.m. ET
I would go out on a limb and say that the loser of this game in San Francisco is going to have some real trouble down the road when it comes to playing in the postseason. Now, naturally, everyone will assume the team in trouble will be Dallas, as the football (and betting) world has really turned against the Cowboys, perhaps with good reason. However, coming out of the bye week here, I expect to see a different and more healthy club. In fact, it can easily be suggested that in terms of key injuries, the 49ers are the team more afflicted, with their huge offensive stars out or limited.
When we last saw the Cowboys, they were getting walloped by Detroit at home. However, two rebound systems are in play because of that result: 1) NFL teams that lose by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have been fantastic bets in the follow-up contest, going 9-11-2 SU but 18-4 ATS (81.8%) in their last 22 tries. 2) NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3-points or more, going 9-20-2 SU but 22-8-1 ATS (73.3%) in their last 31 tries.
We also have a situation where SF could still be reeling from last week’s loss to Kansas City, as momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 12-20 SU and 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%) in their last 32. San Francisco heads into its bye week next week but has gone just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in the last six pre-bye week games and 5-9-1 ATS in the last 15 pre-bye week home games. Meanwhile, Dallas is 13-5 ATS (72.2%) when coming off a SU loss and 19-12 ATS (61.3%) in road/neutral games since 2021.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: I’m going with Dallas +4 on Sunday night
New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
All seems well with the Steelers right now, and everything looks to be going wrong with the Giants. My gut and several trends tell me that we might see something altogether different in Pittsburgh on Monday night. I’m actually somewhat startled with the betting market response to the 6-point spread in this game with QB Russell Wilson leading the Steelers, as the public typically has disregarded him lately. Instead, 70% of the handle and 85% of the bets are on his side. They could end up being disappointed as over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%).
Consider that veteran quarterbacks have struggled under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 22-34 SU and 22-33-1 ATS (40%) in their last 56 such tries for their new teams. Moreover, they are 9-18-1 ATS (33.3%) in their last 28 Monday night contests. Speaking of Monday night, in MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 25-24 SU but 14-33-2 ATS (29.8%) in the last 49, and teams with better records are 34-32 SU but just 23-41-2 ATS (35.9%) in the lsat 66 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
There is also a system that is 27-18 ATS indicating to play against any home team heading into their bye week on Monday night. If you’re worried about the New York offense, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 10-13 SU and 15-8 ATS (65.2%) in their last 23 tries on MNF against teams scoring higher than that. Plus, with the Giants coming off the ugly 28-3 loss to Philly, NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 20-32 SU but 35-17 ATS (67.3%) over the last decade-plus. I don’t think this one is going to be easy for Pittsburgh.
NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Let’s go Giants +6 on Monday night
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