Week 8 NFL
Welcome to the Week 8 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I analyze the NFL slate through the lens of respected predictive models to see where there is the most consensus and the most disagreement, which is valuable in determining which bets to potentially make and which ones to stay away from if the data is mixed. Using my proprietary model, the T Shoe Index, and comparing it to TeamRankings, FPI, and Sagarin, this is a way to find value in the tight NFL betting market.
Here are the biggest model agreements and disagreements in Week 8.
Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.
Week 8 NFL Odds Model Alignment
New England Patriots (-7) vs Cleveland Browns, O/U 40.5
New England is on a bit of a tear here lately, winning and covering in four straight games, while Cleveland is just 2-3 straight up and ATS in their last 5. Patriots QB Drake Maye is playing himself into the MVP discussion, and has the Patriots playing excellent ball – particularly as favorites, where they’re 3-1 ATS situationally and the Browns are 0-3 ATS away from Cleveland.
The average model projection on this game is Patriots -8, with a variance of just 1-point. All four models fall between Patriots -7.5 and Patriots -8.5, which doesn’t seem like a huge value, but when we’re talking about the key number of 7, getting those 7.5-8.5 point projections is extremely valuable. Any time the line has touched 6.5, it’s been quickly bet back to 7 and I agree.
NFL Pick: Patriots -7
Week 8 NFL Odds Model Disagreement
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs New York Giants, O/U 44
I often say “show me your number on a game and I’ll tell you how much weight you put into priors and/or recent games”. This game kind of exemplifies that notion, because, since Jaxson Dart took over at QB for the Giants, they’ve looked like a brand new team, including beating this Eagles team soundly just two games ago. Our models can’t reach a consensus here, most likely due to that fact, resulting in the average projection being Eagles -9.5 but a variance of 6.7 points.
Now, that being said, because I can control everything happening inside TSI and TSI projects Eagles -9.7, I did play Philly, laying a touchdown. Further, my market estimated ratings project Eagles -11, but FPI only makes this game Eagles -5.8, so I totally understand staying away or even playing the Giants based on their recent play. My personal opinion is that the market is selling the Eagles a bit short due to the Dart hype train and the singular data point of the head-to-head game a couple weeks ago. I’m prepared to be wrong, it has happened before, but the NFL is a league subject to overreaction.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football model comparison.
