NFL Week 8 best bets and betting odds
This week in the NFL seems to be pretty heavy on Survivor options, but betting options seem a little bit tougher to come by. We’ve got eight road favorites of varying status, a lot of games lined north of a touchdown, a lot of games lined around a field goal, and several games with mediocre or outright bad teams going head-to-head.
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Some will argue that these are the best kinds of weeks and others will argue that these ugly cards make it really tough to find something to invest in. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder as they say, and while I’m not finding much beauty this week, there are a couple games that interest me.
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Here are my favorite Week 8 NFL picks:
(Odds as of October 26, 5:45 p.m. PT)
Houston Texans (-3.5, 43.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Texans and the Panthers are each coming off of byes this week, but I trust the coaches and the quarterback of one team a lot more and it is the road team. CJ Stroud is the clear Offensive Rookie of the Year leader going into this week and owns a 9/1 TD/INT ratio while throwing for 1,660 yards. The Texans rank 13th in EPA/play on the season and are actually sixth in Dropback EPA, which does tell you how bad the running game has been.
But, the ground game has a chance to get it going this week against the Panthers. Carolina is about league average against the pass, but 32nd in Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate against. It won’t all fall on Stroud’s shoulders this week like it seems to so many weeks.
The Carolina offense is 27th in EPA/play, but that includes an Andy Dalton game from when Bryce Young was hurt. Young ranks 27th out of the 32 starting QBs in EPA+CPOE Composite, which is Expected Points Added and Completion Percentage Over Expected. Stroud is 16th because he’s actually completed 2.8% fewer of his passes than expected. With a bye week to get deeper into the playbook and assess everything, I would expect he improves. He’s 10th in EPA/play.
I’m not sure Frank Reich is working in Charlotte. He’s had a bad poker face when it comes to talking about the decision to draft Young and there feels like a real disconnect between him and the front office and ownership, if not with the team as well. It’s definitely a big spot for the Texans, but they’re just the better team through and through and I would expect OC Bobby Slowik to do good things on that side and head coach DeMeco Ryans to have the defense buttoned-up.
Pick: Texans -3.5 (play -3.5 or better)
Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 38)
The Browns have only had to travel to Pittsburgh and Indianapolis this season, so this could be a bit of a shock to the system going all the way up to Seattle to face the Seahawks. The Seahawks were the better team against the Bengals last week, but went 1-for-5 scoring touchdowns in the red zone and that was the difference in the game with a 17-13 Bengals win.
The skill-position talent for Seattle is unlike anything Cleveland has seen to this point. The Browns defense also sprung quite a few leaks last week with a lot of miscommunication in the secondary. Cleveland got badly outgained by 140 yards and by 2.4 yards per play. With PJ Walker starting again, explosive plays are likely to be few and far between for the Browns offense, which puts a ton of pressure on the defense.
The Browns really benefited last week from Myles Garrett’s absurd field goal block and a scoop and score on special teams, not to mention some very questionable officiating. This feels like a game where the Seahawks can spread Cleveland out and find success.
Seattle ranks in the top 10 in EPA/play on both offense and defense. Cleveland ranks 31st on offense and first on defense. After last week’s performance and with the lackluster performance against Baltimore still in my mind, I like the Seahawks here.
Pick: Seahawks -3.5 (would only play at -4 or better)
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