Week 8 NFL Predictions
For a league built for parity, it’s been so strange to see favorites winning and covering at the clip that they are this year. It feels like the “sharps bet underdogs and Unders” rhetoric of the past is just getting destroyed this year, which I’m guessing means there have been some huge money line parlays cashed by recreational bettors this season. The regression of results and normalization to the mean just haven’t happened this season. Normally, a team like the Colts, who had modest expectations in the preseason, would start hot and then regress back to the middle of the pack, where they were expected to be. Instead, they look like a juggernaut behind QB Daniel Jones and the running game. It’s head-scratching, but at the same time, we have to perhaps adjust our perspective when picking games. I’ve already found myself on some favorites for this week… probably just in time for the trend to reverse course. Here are two early week bets I’ve already made for Week 8:
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
LA Chargers (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings, O/U 44.5
I feel like Minnesota has traveled the globe in the last few weeks, and they now take a trip to the West Coast to take on Justin Herbert and the Chargers on a short week. I know the Chargers are just 4-3 compared to Minnesota’s 3-3 record. Still, I was a bit surprised to see this line open under 3.5 due to the fact that TSI projects Chargers -3.7, and my estimated market ratings make the game Chargers -6.6 based on where these teams’ win totals are currently priced. LA is currently eighth in opponent-adjusted net yards per play, while Minnesota is 17th, indicating perhaps some of the losses for LA are less about them getting outplayed down-to-down and more about some key plays here and there deciding the game, so I’m going to lay the 3 with the Bolts.
NFL Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -3
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs New York Giants, O/U 43.5
We’re four games into the Jaxson Dart era of Giants football, and the early returns have been exciting if nothing else, as the Giants defeated the Eagles before blowing a lead in the fourth quarter to the Broncos last week. The important thing for the purposes of this play is that those two games averaged 58 points, so combining that with the fact that TSI is projecting 44.5 here has me on the Over. I actually also am going to play Philly on the side in this game, even though they just lost to this same Giants team two weeks ago. I think that single result has created value on the Eagles here, where TSI projects Eagles -9.5 and the market estimated ratings project Eagles -11.5, so getting them for just a touchdown is a value play. Feel free to troll me if the Giants win outright again.
NFL Picks: Over 43.5, Philadelphia Eagles -7
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