Week 9 NFL
Welcome to the Week 9 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I analyze the NFL slate through the lens of respected predictive models to see where there is the most consensus and the most disagreement, which is valuable in determining which bets to potentially make and which ones to stay away from if the data is mixed. Using my proprietary model, the T Shoe Index, and comparing it to TeamRankings, FPI, and Sagarin, this is a way to find value in the tight NFL betting market.
Here are the biggest model agreements and disagreements in Week 9.
Note: TeamRankings is a popular sports resource website, FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Note 2: TeamRankings also has the PoolGenius product, a great Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em resource.
Week 9 NFL Odds Model Alignment
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions (-8.5), O/U 48
Minnesota is coming off of a blowout loss at the hands of the LA Chargers and lost QB Carson Wentz in the process, but are expecting to get JJ McCarthy back this week, who was the initial starter this season but got injured early on. Detroit is on a tear, winning and covering in four of its last five games and is a perfect 3-0 ATS at home and 4-0 ATS as a favorite this season.
The average model projection on this game is Lions -10, with a variance of just 2.4 points. All four models fall between Lions -8.5 and Lions -10.5, indicating the market is still on the low end of the expected range of outcomes for the Lions. The last three games’ worth of data in TSI has the Lions trending more like a 17-point winner here, and Dan Campbell has been a cover machine since arriving in Detroit so I’ve got no problem laying more than a touchdown with him.
NFL Pick: Lions -8.5
Week 9 NFL Odds Model Disagreement
Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks (-3), O/U 47.5
With QB Jayden Daniels in and out of the lineup for Washington since dealing with an injury, it’s no surprise to see this game as the biggest model disagreement this week. On top of the Mariota/Daniels QB carousel for Washington and star WR Terry McLaurin being in and out with a hamstring injury, Seattle has far exceeded preseason expectations, which each model weighs differently in making projections.
The average model projection for this game is Commanders -1, but a variance of 5.3 points. TSI and TeamRankings both make Seattle a short favorite, while Sagarin and FPI make Washington a small favorite, so the models are split on who’s going to win; however, they do align on the spread so sometimes these disagreements can confirm a side for us because it shows that regardless of the differences in modeling and range of outcomes, those expected outcomes still fall on the same side of the market, so Washington +3 would be the play here.
NFL Pick: Commanders +3
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Fridays, my Tuesday NFL best bets, and my Thursday college football model comparison.
