NFL First Touchdown
The Breeders’ Cup coverage here at VSiN has taken my attention away from the NFL this week, so the First Touchdown Scorer article is a day late, but hopefully not a dollar short. My sincere apologies for not having it out in time for Thursday Night Football, but I hope you had something on Mark Andrews with Lamar Jackson back in the fray.
And, hey, you can always access the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker and see what has happened so far this season and make some inferences and subsequently wagers that way.
Four teams are on byes this week – Browns (50%), Jets (0%), Eagles (62.5%), and Buccaneers (50%), so we’re missing a couple 50/50 teams and the only team in the NFL to not score the first TD. I also realized I didn’t have the Browns on the Team Record page after last week’s updates. As a native Clevelander, that makes me laugh. I don’t even want to acknowledge their existence for this project.
Anyway, let’s look at the first touchdown scorers by position for this season before looking at the NFL Week 9 schedule.
QB: 1 (15)
RB: 12 (75)
WR: 5 (84)
TE: 6 (46)
D/ST: 1 (6)
No TD: 1 (13)
A big week for running backs, as they took a bite out of the deficit between them and wide receivers. We also continued our strong pace on tight ends, as they had more first team TDs than WR. And Andrews had the first one Thursday night for the Ravens, so we’re off to a blazing start there already in Week 9.
One QB first touchdown and it was Joe Flacco. Just as we all predicted.
The Saints did not score a TD. That seems far more predictable. Good luck, Tyler Shough.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 7/8 (87.5%) |
| Packers | 6/7 (85.7%) |
| Giants | 6/8 (75%) |
| Steelers | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| Bills | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| Jaguars | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| 49ers | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Broncos | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Chargers | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Dolphins | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Eagles | 5/8 (62.5%) |
| Bears | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Falcons | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Lions | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Rams | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Seahawks | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Texans | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Browns | 4/8 (50%) |
| Bucs | 4/8 (50%) |
| Chiefs | 4/8 (50%) |
| Cowboys | 4/8 (50%) |
| Cardinals | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Raiders | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Ravens | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Panthers | 3/8 (37.5%) |
| Bengals | 2/8 (25%) |
| Commanders | 2/8 (25%) |
| Patriots | 2/8 (25%) |
| Vikings | 1/7 (14.3%) |
| Saints | 1/8 (12.5%) |
| Titans | 1/8 (12.5%) |
| Jets | 0/8 (0%) |
Only one team was north of 80% last season (Ravens), but we had four going into last week. Now we have two. We only had two teams under 25% last season. We have four still, as the Bengals got up to 25% last week. Regression to the mean happens in a lot of cases as sample sizes get bigger and we’re likely to keep seeing some of that with this, too.
I’m also tracking players to score at least three first team TDs for their teams. Here it is entering Week 9:
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) Top Scorers by Team
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 4 | 3 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 4 | 1 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 3 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 3 | 2 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 3 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 3 | 2 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 3 | 2 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 3 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 3 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 3 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 3 | 0 |
| Raiders No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
This week’s new additions – Allgeier, J. Williams. Achane and Henry also went from three TDs to four TDs to lead the league in that department. Still LOL at the Raiders. That said, the Raiders have scored the first TD in three of the four games where they’ve actually scored one.
With that, let’s get to the Week 9 action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 9 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Ravens (42.9%) at Dolphins (62.5%) – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (sorry 🙁 )
Bears (57.1%) at Bengals (25%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Vikings (14.3%) at Lions (57.1%)
Panthers (37.5%) at Packers (85.7%)
Chargers (62.5%) at Titans (12.5%)
Falcons (57.1%) at Patriots (25%)
Colts (87.5%) at Steelers (71.4%)
Broncos (62.5%) at Texans (57.1%)
Jaguars (71.4%) at Raiders (42.9%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Saints (12.5%) at Rams (57.1%)
Chiefs (50%) at Bills (71.4%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Seahawks (57.1%) at Commanders (25%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Cardinals (42.9%) at Cowboys (50%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 9 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs +425, Tucker Kraft +550, Jordan Love +3500
Nothing sexy about this, but the Packers, who have excelled in this department over the last two seasons, are incredibly hard to pick. This season, Jacobs, Kraft, and Romeo Doubs have two first team TDs each. John FitzPatrick somehow has the other one. Last season, Jacobs had seven, while Jayden Reed had five.
Since their Week 5 bye, the Packers have gotten two first TDs from Jacobs and one from Kraft. For as bad as Carolina is in a lot of areas, they’ve only allowed five TDs to wide receivers.
I went with Love as a late addition, as the Panthers have allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards to QBs, but are one of five teams to allow three rushing TDs to QBs. Only the Dolphins have allowed more with four. I know that Love rarely runs and only has three red zone rushing attempts this season. With Jacobs nursing a calf injury, it seems a little bit more plausible here.
Los Angeles Chargers: Kimani Vidal +475, Justin Herbert +1500
The receivers seem to have depressed prices this week as the Chargers only have three rushing touchdowns on the season. But, the Titans, for their immense amount of flaws, have not allowed a 1st quarter rushing TD thus far. They have, however, allowed five rushing TDs.
Vidal leads the team with 17 red zone attempts and Hassan Haskins only has one. To be honest with you, I wish DraftKings had a number on Jaret Patterson, who only played 15 snaps last week, but had 11 carries. A lot of that probably had to do with garbage time in the 37-10 win over Minnesota, but he’d be at a massive number and got a lot more touches than Haskins, who was on the field for 25 snaps and only had one carry and two receptions.
Herbert is obviously a mobile option inside the five and the Chargers need to try some different things because their 46.4% success rate in the red zone ranks 28th in the NFL while tied for eighth in red zone attempts. The Titans have only scored three TDs in the first half this season, so even if the Chargers falter a time or two, hopefully they still have time to score the first TD.
The Titans have allowed 12 rushing TDs already this season.
Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams +370, Tyler Higbee +2000
Going to take a shot here with Higbee, staying away from the shorter prices on Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Higbee has not been nearly as much of a weapon as usual for Matthew Stafford, but the Saints have allowed the ninth-fewest Air Yards this season and maybe that opens up some opportunities for Higbee with Adams stretching the defense down the field a little bit.
Adams has only hauled in five of his 17 targets in the red zone. Two weeks ago, Konata Mumpfield caught the first TD for the Rams. Now they’re off the bye and I feel like Higbee has a chance to feature prominently after that, as he’s had 15 targets over the last three weeks.
Williams is just obvious, seeing as how he’s scored the Rams’ first TD in 16 of the team’s last 25 games. It is worth mentioning that the Saints have allowed 12 passing TDs in the first half and just five rushing TDs, but I can’t ignore Williams’ workload in the scoring areas just because of that.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article in 2022-23 and the tracker.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 9 content in our Betting Hub.
