Week 9 NFL Predictions
Thank goodness for the NFL this year. In what has historically been my worst sport, an off-season model revamp is paying huge dividends, as I’m now just shy of being up 20 units on the NFL season, including a 6-1 week in Week 8 and a 3-0 sweep on VSiN article plays last week. I hope to keep it rolling in Week 9, where I’ve already played a handful of games, so here are some early week best bets from the T Shoe Index:
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Houston Texans (-1.5) vs Denver Broncos, O/U 39.5
This line opened Sunday offshore with the Broncos as a 1-point favorite, but that quickly turned into Houston being favored by 1.5, which is exactly where TSI has the game; however, the market estimated ratings project Houston -3, and when that formula aligned with TSI last week, those plays went 7-3. Looking at how these teams are trending using only the last three games’ grades, Houston would be over a touchdown favorite in my numbers, so all signs point towards a Texans cover at home, where Houston is 2-1 ATS while Denver is just 1-2 ATS on the road. Houston is #1 in the league in opponent-adjusted points allowed, and while Denver is top 10 in points scored, when you opponent-adjust those numbers, that falls to 16th, so I think this Denver offense is a tad overrated.
NFL Pick: Houston Texans -1.5
Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) vs Chicago Bears, O/U 52.5
Do the Bengals suck? Yes. They just lost to the Jets in embarrassing fashion, so of course they do; however, they’re playing Chicago at home, and teams in the NFL have a funny way of bouncing back after those types of embarrassing losses that make you do some serious soul-searching. I expect much of the public market to be backing Chicago here, based mostly on last week’s result. Still, TSI only makes Chicago three 1-point favorite using season-long data, and makes the game a pick ‘em using just the last 3 games’ data (since Joe Flacco took over for Cincinnati). The market estimation is also a pick ‘em, indicating there’s some inflation on Chicago here after Justin Fields had the best game of his career against Cincinnati on Sunday. This is as much a situational play as a numbers one, but both the art and the science point me towards ** gulp ** Joe Flacco and the Bengals.
NFL Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +2.5
For more Week 9 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 9 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
