Week 13 of the 2024 college football season was absolutely nuts, and things weren’t much calmer in Week 12 of the NFL season. As always, our talented team of VSiN hosts and analysts are tackling some of the biggest betting stories coming out of the weekend. So, make sure you check out our live programming for all sorts of high-level analysis. Our Black Friday Special is offering the best subscriber get-in price that I have seen in my time with the company. However, I’m also tackling some interesting market moves below. So, check out my take on the Heisman Trophy market, along with a play I love with regards to the College Football Playoff. And keep reading for my Week 12 NFL takeaways, with a main focus on how things changed in specific futures markets!

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Heisman Trophy Odds

It seems that Travis Hunter’s individual play is enough for him to overcome Colorado having three losses. The Buffaloes lost to the Kansas Jayhawks in Week 13, but Hunter moved from -350 to -800 at DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s an implied probability of 88.89% that Hunter will take home this prestigious award. 

Hunter did have eight catches for 125 yards and two scores in the game, and he also had seven tackles and one pass defended at corner. So, it was an impressive performance in an otherwise unimpressive showing for Colorado. And at this point, it really does feel like nobody else has a chance. 

However, if you are looking to take a flier elsewhere, there’s a 66-1 out there for Dillon Gabriel. The lefty has had an up-and-down season for Oregon thus far, but he’s taking on Washington this week — and he’s doing so after a bye week. If he turns in a big performance and then beats an elite Ohio State team for the second time this year, are we absolutely positive he doesn’t deserve it? 

I have been saying it all year long, but Gabriel’s first performance against the Buckeyes was the most impressive single-game outing of the year. He threw for 341 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in that game, and he also rushed for 32 yards and a touchdown. That Ohio State defense is first in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.168). That’s why I’m closely monitoring what he does in a potential rematch. 

This award is usually reserved for the best player on the nation’s best team, and Gabriel is exactly that for an Oregon squad that is 11-0 and currently sits atop the College Football Playoff rankings. 

College Football Playoff – Odds To Make The Playoff

Good luck trying to figure out who will be in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke did his best to sift through the rubble. I won’t be doing that here. However, here’s a look at the Yes/No odds to make the playoffs for 17 of the nation’s top teams at DraftKings Sportsbook, along with a wager I’d be looking to make right now: 

  • Tulane – Yes +360 / No -550
  • Texas A&M – Yes +800 / No -1600
  • Tennessee – Yes -500 / No +340
  • Ole Miss – Yes +360 / No -550
  • Miami – Yes -240 / No +180
  • Clemson – Yes +200 / No -270
  • Notre Dame – Yes -650 / No +425
  • Alabama – Yes +180 / No -240
  • Colorado – Yes +600 / No -1400
  • UNLV – Yes +340 / No -550
  • Boise State – Yes -300 / No +220
  • Arizona State – Yes +130 / No -170
  • South Carolina – Yes +310 / No -450
  • Indiana – Yes -2000 / No +1000
  • BYU – Yes +310 / No -450
  • Iowa State – Yes +220 / No -300
  • SMU – Yes -160 / No +125

You can find all of these odds (listed in this exact order) here!

While Alabama doesn’t deserve to be rewarded for a season that features losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, I’m stunned that you can get them to make the playoffs at +180. Maybe I was incepted by Paul Finebaum, but this is an SEC team with a massive brand and wins over Georgia and Missouri. Out of a relatively watered-down group of CFP hopefuls, I’d be surprised if the committee doesn’t opt to include Alabama. If the Crimson Tide roll in the Iron Bowl, I think they’re in. And Alabama is favored by 11.5 in that game, so the team should really get the job done.

NFL Week 12 Takeaways & Market Moves

Cowboys vs. Commanders Chaos

Let’s shine a quick light on the Cowboys vs. Commanders game. Dallas was a 10.5-point underdog in that one, but the team ended up earning a 34-26 road victory. It was a stunning result. Our VSiN NFL betting splits showed that almost 90% of bettors were backing Washington on the moneyline. That was likely a very popular parlay anchor. Most bettors were also laying the points with the Commanders, so the sportsbooks cleaned up on that result. 

The game also featured an absurd beat for Under bettors. This was a 10-9 game at the end of the third quarter, but the teams combined to score 41 points in the fourth quarter. And 23 of those points were scored in the final three minutes of the game. It was ultimately an Austin Seibert 51-yard field goal that sent the game Over the 44.5-point total with 1:40 left. 

Coach of the Year Odds

Dan Campbell is now +160 to win Coach of the Year. The Lions earned a 24-6 road win over the Colts in Week 12, covering the 7.5-point spread on the game. Detroit is the best team in the league according to EPA per play, DVOA and VSiN analytics guru Steve Makinen’s power ratings. So, with Campbell having not won the award for his role in last year’s turnaround in Detroit, it seems like he might get his due this year. However, several coaches are lurking in the shadows. On Monday morning’s episode of A Numbers Game, Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon made a quick case for Andy Reid at 20-1. And I will continue to pound the table for Nick Sirianni, whose Eagles moved to 9-2 with an impressive road win over the Rams in Week 12. I acknowledge it’s a long shot, but 14 wins seems very likely for Philadelphia. That’s enough to be holding some sort of Sirianni ticket.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

For two months, it looked like Jayden Daniels had a stranglehold on this award. The Commanders were buzzing, Daniels looked like Lamar Jackson 2.0 and Caleb Williams, the top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and the pre-season favorite in this market, was struggling for the Bears. Well, Daniels has cooled down significantly for a Washington team that has lost three consecutive games — including the embarrassing aforementioned loss to Dallas. Meanwhile, a hot new bombshell has entered the villa. 

Sean Payton and the Broncos were ridiculed for drafting Bo Nix, a 24-year-old that played five years of college football, with the 12th pick in the draft. But Denver has won seven of its last 10 games and has a real shot at earning a playoff spot in a highly competitive AFC. And Nix has been on fire under center. Over the last eight games, Nix has thrown for 15 touchdowns with only two interceptions. He has also rushed for two scores. Nix is taking care of the football and operating Payton’s offense at a high level. And he has taken things up a notch recently, throwing for 580 yards with six touchdowns over the last two weeks. He’s starting to look more like a playmaker than a mere game manager. 

It’ll be interesting to see how this all unfolds, but the arrow is pointing up for Nix and down for Daniels. And voters generally resonate more with what they see in the second half of the season. 

Offensive Player of the Year Odds

It’s worth mentioning that Saquon Barkley’s massive Sunday Night Football performance has him as a sizable odds-on favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year. After rushing for 255 yards with two touchdowns against the Rams, while also adding four catches for 47 yards, Barkley is -310 to win the award at DraftKings Sportsbook. He has moved way out in front of Derrick Henry, who is playing the Chargers in the Week 12 Monday Night Football game. 

NFC West Odds

This is the most interesting division to bet on. Last week, Arizona was a small odds-on favorite to take it home. However, the Cardinals were unable to take advantage of their bye week and beat the Seahawks at Lumen Field. Now, Seattle sits atop the division standings, as both teams are 6-5 and the Seahawks currently own the tiebreaker. But the Seahawks will have to go on the road and face this Cardinals team two weeks from now. And Seattle has the tougher remaining schedule, which is why Arizona is still the betting favorite to win the division. 

You also can’t rule out Los Angeles or San Francisco. The 49ers have suffered some disappointing losses this season, and a road game against the Bills this week will likely end in another defeat. But San Francisco can easily rip off four or five wins in the final five weeks of the season. 

This is simply one of the most wide-open divisions in the NFL, so don’t be surprised if there are some twists and turns along the way.

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