Wes Reynolds: NFL Conference Championship Best Bets
Here are my NFL Conference Championship best bets:
AFC Championship
Denver +4.5 vs. New England
With Bo Nix, Denver would have been -2 or -2.5 in this spot. The market peaked at New England at -5.5 before dropping to its current price. Is this large drop off to Jarrett Stidham really justified in this number? Before going into further detail on the Broncos QB situation, we also should examine the Patriots’ situation.
In two playoff games, Drake Maye has fumbled six times and has taken 10 sacks (45% pressure-to-sack ratio). That is scary for New England against a Denver team that had 68 sacks in the regular season, which tied for the fifth-most in NFL history. Maye is also making his first career road playoff start, and Denver is just about the toughest place to do that.
Defensively, the Patriots have held opposing running backs to 61 yards on 31 carries in two playoff games vs. the Chargers and Texans. So, Denver will have to throw the ball here.
While Stidham only has 20 career games (just 4 starts) in his seven-year NFL career, he has been in this Denver system for three years with one of the league’s best play-callers and is behind what was ranked as the league’s best OL unit this season by PFF. The Patriots had the luxury of going against four highly injured offensive lines (Jets, Dolphins, Chargers, and Texans) over the last four games.
Sean Payton has a history of success with backup QBs. In 2021, Jameis Winston began the year as the starting QB. Winston, Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill, and Ian Book got starts in 2021. Winston got 7, Siemian got 4, Hill got 5 total with the other positions he plays, and Book got one.
All of those Saints’ quarterbacks combined for the following:
293/503
3,186 yards
29 touchdowns
13 interceptions
87.4 passer rating
In the 2019 season, Teddy Bridgewater started five games because of an injury to Drew Brees. In those five games, the Saints went 5-0, and Bridgewater’s numbers were as follows:
133/196 (67.9%)
1,384 yards
9 touchdowns
2 interceptions
99.1 passer rating
Overall, Payton has had success in those games having to start a backup QB, going 12-9 SU and 14-7 ATS.
Payton is also 61-42-2 ATS (59.2%) for his career as an underdog.
Keep in mind that Denver has one of the better homefield advantages in the NFL and went 9-1 at home this season.
NFC Championship
Los Angeles Rams +3 (-130) at Seattle
The last time these teams met in Week 16, the Rams led 30-14 in the fourth quarter only to have everything go wrong in what ended up a 38-37 loss:
- Seahawks Rashid Shaheed punt return TD followed by a two-point conversion.
- Seahawks Sam Darnold to AJ Barner TD followed by a fluky two-point conversion where Zach Charbonnet picked up a loose ball.
- Rams missed FG with 2:11 to go.
- Rams Matthew Stafford to Puka Nacua TD with 6:27 left in OT.
- Seahawks Darnold to Jaxon Smith-Njigba TD then another two-point conversion (Seahawks 3-for-3 two-point conversions in 4th Q and OT!).
The Rams outgained the Seahawks 581 to 415 and still lost. To be fair, Seattle dominated the Week 11 meeting in Los Angeles with a 414-to-249-yard edge but lost 21-19 due to Darnold throwing four interceptions.
That Week 16 result played a major role in Seattle eventually securing homefield in the NFC and forcing the Rams to play its now third straight road game in the playoffs and seventh game away from home in nine weeks. Needless to say, the spot is not exactly ideal for the road team.
Seattle closed as 1.5-point favorites in that Week 16 game and is now laying 2.5 after a dominant 41-6 (41 points on just 281 yards of total offense) victory over the 49ers, while the Rams had to score in the final two minutes to get by Carolina and had to go to OT to win at Chicago. The Seahawks look dominant while the Rams have been surviving, and yet this number has not moved hardly at all?
The Rams are the first team in the Super Bowl era to lose ATS in both the Wild Card round and the Divisional round, but advance to the Conference Championship.
Darnold is also still battling the oblique injury and was not even confirmed as playing until game day.
The two meetings between these teams produced these numbers:
Points Scored
Rams: 58; Seahawks: 57
Total Yards
Rams: 830; Seahawks: 829
The numbers would indicate a coin-flip game, and it likely will be. However, if you watch the two games in their entirety, the Rams outplayed the Seahawks in six and perhaps seven of the eight quarters.
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