Wes Reynolds: NFL Divisional Round Best Bets
Here are my NFL Divisional Round best bets:
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos Under 46
Josh Allen comes off his first career playoff road win over the Jaguars last week, snapping an 0-4 record in playoff road games. However, Allen is battling a variety of injuries, including twisting his left knee in last week’s 27-24 victory.
Allen’s mobility certainly will not be at its full capacity. Plus, Denver ranked 2nd in the regular season for both rushing and total defense, so Allen’s scrambling opportunities were going to be limited as it is.
The Broncos also run one of the league’s highest man coverage rates, and Buffalo lacks a game-breaking receiver, which is why James Cook carried the heaviest load of his career with 309 carries (72 more than his career high two seasons ago).
Offensively, Denver scored 21 points or fewer in nine games this season. The return of Ed Oliver on the Bills DL should also help a rush defense that ranked fifth-worst in the league.
Los Angeles Rams TT Over 26.5 (-120) at Chicago Bears
Both teams trailed in the final two minutes of their respective Wild Card Weekend games, and both emerged victorious. It was surprising for the Rams to be in that position considering they were 10-point favorites on the road. It was not surprising for the Bears, considering that is what they have done all year. Chicago now has an NFL-record seven victories this season when trailing at or inside the two-minute warning in the second half.
Eventually, this Bears luck has to run out, right? Well, I do not know if I want to pay again to find out. What I do know is that this Bears defense ranks No. 29 overall, allowing 365.2 yards per contest. Meanwhile, the Rams are No. 1 in both total (394.6 ypg) and scoring offense (30.5 ppg). Kevin Dotson also returns on the right side of the OL, and he is the Rams’ best run blocker up front.
The cold weather and the Bears’ defense aren’t likely to slow down the Rams’ juggernaut offense.
BEST OF THE REST
Seattle Seahawks -1/Buffalo Bills +7.5 (6-point Teaser)
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