Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 10 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 10 best bets:
New Orleans +5.5 at Carolina
Last week, the Saints were nearly doubled up in yardage (438-224) and were more than doubled up on the scoreboard in a 34-10 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams.
Tyler Shough was ok in his first road start and did not turn it over until the final drive of the game when it was way out of reach. However, most of his passes were shorter and Rashid Shaheed, last week’s leading receiver, was traded to Seattle earlier this week.
Alvin Kamara is questionable for the Saints, but he only had six carries last week and Taysom Hill is now back to help a running game that desperately needs it, considering the New Orleans offense was only on the field for barely 16 minutes last week.
Carolina pulled the upset in Lambeau last week as 13-point underdogs over Green Bay. The Panthers are now 5-4, having been underdogs in all nine games. They are now favorites for the first time this season. Carolina has lost 10 straight games as favorites since 2021.
While things clearly look bleak for New Orleans, keep in mind these Panthers were underdogs at the Jets just three weeks ago and we were beaten by 31 at home just two weeks ago against Buffalo. Even against the sad Saints, this number is a bit of an overreaction to last week’s result at Green Bay.
Miami +9.5 vs. Buffalo
Buffalo dominated Kansas City last week, but still had to hang on for a 28-21 victory after a late missed FG and giving that Mahomes guy the ball back on the last possession of the game (not that they have ever paid dearly for doing that in the past, of course).
Miami was handled at home easily by Baltimore on Thursday Night Football, 28-6. The Dolphins were -3 in turnovers, and the season continues to get worse in South Beach. GM Chris Grier was shown the door last Friday.
These two met on September 18th with Buffalo winning 31-21 as an 11-point home favorite.
Everything looks to be going Buffalo’s way with the Bills coming off their biggest win of the season and MVP favorite Josh Allen setting a franchise record for completion percentage (88.5%) in a single game, going 23-for-26. Allen now takes to the road as over a TD favorite, where he is 5-3 SU, but only 2-6 ATS.
Furthermore, teams after facing the Chiefs, who are road favorites the week after are 3-8-1 ATS, so there could be a potential hangover against a group that was embarrassed in its last home game and eager to atone for that.
New York Giants +4.5 at Chicago
The Giants have lost three in a row and despite rookie QB Jaxson Dart providing a little hope for the future, the G-Men are lacking offensive weapons with RB Cam Skattebo and WR Malik Nabers out for the season.
On the other hand, the Bears have won five of their last six games, capped off by a victory after a near collapse in Cincinnati last week. Chicago won 47-42, scoring the game-winner with 0:17 left. Despite allowing 42 points and 495 yards (445 through the air), the Bears still managed to escape.
A main reason for that escape is that Chicago was +3 in turnover margin. In fact, Chicago is +15 in turnover margin over the last six weeks, which is unsustainable.
Lost in the Bears’ current 5-1 run is that Caleb Williams is still not yet where he needs to be. His completion percentage above expectation is still -6.5%, the worst mark in the NFL according to NFL Next Gen Stats and his average time to throw is 3.24 seconds, also the worst mark in the NFL.
The Bears have been fortunate and are getting a little overvalued here.
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Los Angeles Rams/San Francisco 49ers OVER 49.5
BEST OF THE REST
Arizona Cardinals +7 at Seattle Seahawks
Washington Commanders +8.5 vs. Detroit Lions
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