Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 10 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 10 best bets:
New York Jets (+8.5, -115) vs. Buffalo Bills
After a solid first half, the Jets were dominated in the second half, falling to a 35-12 defeat in Kansas City. Buffalo comes off its best defensive performance of the season, holding Minnesota to just 178 yards and six points (a good reason the Vikings re-acquired Kirk Cousins at the trade deadline). Before facing Minnesota’s anemic offense last Monday night, Buffalo’s defense ranked 26th in Defensive EPA and 29th in Success Rate.
Garrett Wilson’s return should boost the Jets offense, which is about mid-pack but should be able to make plays downfield against a Bills defense that’s been a bit overrated over the last two weeks, playing Tyler Huntley and Joe Fagnano vs. Baltimore and Carson Wentz at Minnesota.
Teams that lost by 20 or more points the previous week are 14-6-1 ATS thus far this season. The Bills will certainly see a lot of action considering they have the best record in the AFC, yet they have not been moved to 9 or 9.5 in the teaser protection range.
The Jets also have a day of rest advantage and teams with a rest advantage have performed well so far. They are 34-12 SU and 32–13-1 ATS.
Buffalo also had to face a physical Minnesota defense, and wear and tear can carry over to the following week.
Dallas Cowboys (+4) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy is 3-0 SU and ATS against Dallas. Purdy and the Niners come into this one rolling after blowing out the Raiders last week off its bye week.
Despite a 508-to-271 yard edge, Dallas had to eke out a 4-point win in Indianapolis.
The 49ers are banged up in the secondary as both starting corners (Lenoir and Green) were limited in Friday’s final practice. Dallas ranks top 7 in offensive EPA and success rate and can move the ball and potentially go score for score with San Francisco and they are getting George Pickens back.
Mike Evans is also still out for the Niners, and while Deebo Samuel returns from a hamstring injury and Keenan Allen was just acquired at the deadline, they are on the back end of their careers and cannot make up for Evans’s absence. Purdy has just three touchdowns and three interceptions over the last two games without him.
The Cowboys’ defensive metrics certainly are not pretty, but they have done some different things and made a couple of improvements, like moving rookie Caleb Downs into more of a rover position. Quinnen Williams has been dominating against the run. Joey Porter Jr. and DeMarion Overshown should return this week.
Since the start of last season, Dak and the Cowboys have been good underdogs, going 7-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS at home as underdogs and are 2-0 ATS as underdogs this season.
The NFC East is certainly there for the taking with the Commanders upsetting the Giants on Thursday Night Football. It is time for the Cowboys to show something in a big, marquee game.
Las Vegas Raiders (+7 -120) vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Fernando Mendoza (Can you hear the drums, Fernando?) era officially begins on Sunday in Las Vegas as the Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall pick is now QB1 for the silver and black. For Mendoza’s first assignment, he gets to face the Seattle defense which is No. 2 in Success Rate and No. 4 in EPA. The Seahawks are also No. 1 in YPA, only allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for 5.48 yards per attempt and are second in Tackles For Loss.
On the other side, Drew Lock, filling in for an injured Sam Darnold, is still dealing with an oblique injury. He obviously favored it last week, and the Seahawks offense could only score 17 points and managed under 300 yards of total offense against a bad Cardinals defense. They get to face another bad defense with the Raiders. However, Seattle’s offense may not be able to take advantage with Lock not being at 100 percent or the fact that they cannot run the ball. Even with Zach Charbonnet’s return last week, Seattle only ran it for 3.6 yards/carry. Plus, the Seahawks are down its entire left side of the offensive line with Charles Cross and Quenton Nelson out for this game.
Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak also knows this Seattle defense well, considering he faced it daily in practice as the Seahawks offensive coordinator last season. Kubiak may also be implementing some new wrinkles with Mendoza that he could not do with Cousins like more RPOs.
Seattle has the bye week on deck and injuries are starting to take their toll. Even against a rookie QB making his first start, this price is too high for the Seahawks to lay on the road.
BEST OF THE REST
Houston -4.5 at Cleveland
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Buffalo/NY Jets OVER 50.5
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Falcons +9/Steelers +9.5
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