Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 11 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 11 best bets:
Minnesota -150 vs. Chicago
The Bears are seeking revenge for a Week 1 loss at home to Minnesota. Chicago blew a 17-6 fourth quarter lead in that opener, allowing the Vikings to score 21 unanswered points en route to a 27-24 victory.
Chicago has won six of its last seven games largely due to a +16 turnover margin that is not sustainable long-term. The Bears’ defense has not been all that good, considering they rank in the bottom five of the league for yards per pass and yards per rush allowed. Simply put, this team has been very fortunate to live off turnovers. Plus, they have had four fourth quarter comeback wins, all vs. bad teams, including the Raiders, Commanders, Bengals, and Giants.
Last week in a 27-19 home loss, Minnesota actually outgained Baltimore 365-to-321, but were done in by a -3 turnover margin.
The Bears have a very “public dog” look to them in this one.
Jacksonville +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Jacksonville certainly had the most heartbreaking loss of Week 10. The Jaguars had a 29-10 lead through three quarters, only to be outscored 26-0 in the final stanza. They also only gained 213 yards, and Trevor Lawrence was sacked five times.
This is a team that we really want to bet, right?
Speaking of allowing sacks, the Chargers still continue to give up a bundle (34 overall, T-4th worst). It was already bad without Rashawn Slater, who was lost for the season in training camp, but Joe Alt getting hurt again (out for the season as well) leaves no one to mask the rest of the unit’s mistakes in pass protection. They are allowing a 44% pressure rate.
The Jaguars do return home for the first time in a month. Over the last four games, Jacksonville has gone 1-3, but two of the losses were to the now 7-2 Seahawks and 7-2 Rams and against the league’s No. 1 total defense in Houston last week.
The Chargers have also taken advantage of an easy schedule, going 3-1 on the road, but just 1-3 ATS. They lost at the Giants, could not cover in Miami, nor in Tennessee.
At 7-3, the Chargers are a sell-high team. Are we really convinced that this team is that good?
Cleveland +8 vs. Baltimore
Baltimore has started to get healthy and has now won three games in a row. Furthermore, they look to be in the easy part of its schedule with this game at Cleveland, then vs. the Jets at home, then vs. the Bengals and the league’s worst defense. However, we have seen teams struggle in these spots when it looks too easy.
Meanwhile, Cleveland lost at the Jets, who had traded several members off its team at the trade deadline. Nevertheless, Cleveland is back at home where they are 3-0 ATS and should be 3-0 SU but lost by 1 in the opener to Cincinnati.
Despite being just 2-7, Cleveland still ranks 2nd in the NFL for both total defense and passing defense. They are also one of only ten teams allowing less than 100 yards per game on the ground.
Granted, there are not many spots to bet the Browns, but getting points at home has been arguably the best spot to bet this team.
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Detroit Lions/Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 47
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Washington Commanders +8.5/Jacksonville Jaguars +9
BEST OF THE REST
Tennessee Titans +6 vs. Houston Texans
For more NFL Week 11 best bets, visit the NFL Week 11 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
