Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 12 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 12 best bets:
Kansas City -3 vs. Indianapolis
It appears that the Kansas City dynasty has come to an end. At least it likely has in the AFC West as the Chiefs, winners of nine straight division titles, now sit three games back of the Broncos after a 22-19 loss last week in Denver.
For the entire week, the NFL media have focused on the Chiefs’ downfall. Granted, they are down from their peak for sure, but they have not fallen into the abyss.
Indianapolis comes off a bye week. The question is whether that bye week helped the Colts solve their protection issues, as they have allowed 12 sacks in the last two games. Furthermore, ‘Indiana Jones’ had been managing to avoid the turnover issues but has seven of them over the last two games.
Expect a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor as he leads the NFL with 1,139 rush yards, has 15 rush TDs – which is more than 29 teams this year – and his 6.03 yards/carry also leads the NFL. Nevertheless, Kansas City is a top ten rushing defense only allowing 100 yards per game.
The Chiefs have their backs against the wall here and should get the victory to at least somewhat steady the ship.
Dallas +3.5 (-120) vs. Philadelphia
With a three-and-a-half game lead in the NFC East, the Eagles appear to be on cruise control to win the division. Meanwhile, Dallas desperately needs a victory just get closer in the Wild Card picture.
The Cowboys are the league’s No. 1 passing offense and No. 2 scoring offense and should have more success throwing on a good Eagles defense that are only allowing opposing QBs to complete 56.6 percent of their passes (best in the NFL). However, Dallas should have more success in the vertical passing game than Detroit did last week.
Philadelphia’s offense has struggled as it is this season (25th total offense) and now it looks to be down LT Lane Johnson and C Cam Jurgens. Plus, the much-maligned Dallas defense has improved over the last couple of weeks with the additions of DT Quinnen Williams, who was acquired at the trade deadline, LB Logan Wilson, and the return of LB DeMarvion Overshown.
Dallas is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home division games and are clearly the most desperate team here.
QUICK HITS
Pittsburgh +3 (-125) at Chicago
How long can the Bears’ luck last? They are +18 in turnover margin over the last eight games. Now they are taking on the team that invented living off turnovers, at least for the last several years.
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Seattle Seahawks/Tennessee Titans UNDER 40.5
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Arizona Cardinals +9/Los Angeles Rams -0.5
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