Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 15 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 15 best bets:
Buffalo -115 ML at New England
The Patriots won the first meeting 23-20 as 7.5-point road underdogs back in Week 5.
New England has won 10 games in a row and are off a late-season bye week, but that could potentially work against the Patriots because the last thing you want to do is have a break when you are rolling.
However, the Patriots have been fortunate in several different areas, including fourth downs, where they are 14/18 while opponents are just 7/22. Furthermore, seven of the 11 New England victories have been against teams with QBs who are either rookies or are no longer starting. The schedule has been the softest in the league for the Patriots as they have only defeated two teams (Buffalo and Tampa Bay) currently with winning records.
There has not been much negative to point towards the New England side, but they have struggled against the run of late with injuries to Robert Spillane, Harold Landry, and Milton Williams. The Patriots are third worst against the run over the last month and are now facing a Buffalo team that leads the league in rushing offense (157.8 ypg).
Josh Allen is 30-14-2 ATS in his career as a dog or favorite of less than 3. Perhaps we also get a “happy factor” here as Allen and fiancée actress Hailee Steinfeld announced late this week that they are expecting their first child.
Late in the season, I prefer to back a team that has proven it in these types of games, and that is Buffalo.
Kansas City -5.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Kansas City is now 6-7, and its 10-year streak of playoff appearances is in serious jeopardy. The Chiefs have also failed to cover five games in a row, and yet they are laying 5.5 here to a 9-4 Chargers team?
The Chargers, who beat KC in the season opener held in Brazil, will not be playing in that type of climate this week as it is expected to be 15 degrees by kickoff, which is not exactly good for QB Justin Herbert’s injured hand.
What is also not good for Herbert is his lack of protection up front as his offensive line, which has battled injuries all season, gave up a 70 percent pressure rate vs. the Eagles last week and only squeaked out the victory because Jalen Hurts turned it over five times.
The Bolts also have played the third-easiest schedule this season.
We all saw the Chiefs’ obituary being written on the Sunday Night Football telecast vs. Houston last week. This is the “last stand” game for the Chiefs, and they should be able to stop the bleeding for at least one week.
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Los Angeles Chargers/Kansas City Chiefs Under 41.5
BEST OF THE REST
Cleveland Browns +8 at Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers -130 ML at Denver Broncos
For more NFL Week 15 best bets, visit the NFL Week 15 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
