Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 17 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 17 best bets:
Indianapolis +6 vs. Jacksonville
Keep in mind that you likely will be able to get a better number on Sunday should Houston win on the road against the Chargers. With that victory, the Texans would officially eliminate the Colts from playoff contention.
Nevertheless, it is reasonable to expect a better effort out of the Colts after an abysmal defensive performance on Monday Night Football against the 49ers. It has already been announced that Philip Rivers will get the start for the Colts in what will likely be the last encore of his career. While he has only been back in the locker room for a little less than three weeks, Rivers has the respect of every player in that building.
The Colts also will receive some needed help in the secondary with Sauce Gardner returning from a calf injury and Bernhard Raimann also back at left tackle.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville has won seven in a row and is a victory and a Houston loss away from clinching the AFC South. The Jaguars, as 3.5-point underdogs, went into Denver (who was on an 11-game winning streak of its own) and easily took care of the Broncos. Now they get a Colts team, who they easily defeated three weeks ago, that is on its own five-game losing streak.
The Jaguars have been overlooked by the national media all season and now have the spotlight being shined upon them. Jacksonville is priced at the top of the market, and it is always dangerous to lay a number on the road with a team in that spot, even one as hot as the Jaguars are at the moment.
New York Jets +14 (-120) vs. New England
The New England Patriots still hold a one-game lead in the AFC East and can win the division with a victory and a Buffalo loss. They are also one tiebreaker away from being the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
This week seemingly looks like a break or at least a breather for them against a 3-12 Jets team, who they easily dispatched of (27-14) in Week 11. The Patriots were laying -12.5 in that spot and now lay almost a full two touchdowns on the road.
New England comes in off arguably its biggest win of the season, overcoming a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter at Baltimore last week. However, the Pats came out last Sunday with 10 players injured. Seven starters – receiver Kayshon Boutte (concussion), receiver Mack Hollins (abdomen), left guard Jared Wilson (concussion), defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga (foot), edge rusher Harold Landry (knee), and linebacker Robert Spillane (ankle) were ruled out on Friday and defensive tackle Milton Williams will also not be activated this week.
That means the Patriots will play the Jets on Sunday afternoon without two starting receivers, a starting left guard, a starting defensive tackle, a starting edge rusher, and their leading tackler and pass rusher.
There is not a great case to be made for the Jets here, considering they have lost their last three games by a combined score of 111-36 (an average loss of 37-12). Nevertheless, we have already seen this week that “must wins” are priced in and “must wins” do not necessarily equal must cover.
The premium in the number might just be a tad too high for New England, even against the hapless Jets.
San Francisco -3 vs. Chicago
The San Francisco 49ers, despite yet another injury-riddled season, now find themselves with a realistic possibility of winning its last two games at home, earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC and potentially playing at their Levi’s Stadium home all the way through Super Bowl LX.
Chicago also has its own opportunity at the No. 1 seed after yet another miracle comeback last Saturday night vs. Green Bay. The Bears have set an NFL record by winning six games this season when trailing in the final two minutes.
The Bears offense has clearly improved under first-year head coach Ben Johnson (it seems like the Detroit Lions miss him just a little bit), and Caleb Williams is living up to being the 2024 No. 1 overall pick. While it is unfair to totally dismiss the Bears as “lucky,” they have had a large amount of good fortune this year. They have made a living off turnovers this season with a +21 margin, six better than any other team in the league. In addition, Chicago’s strength of victory is just 38.2%, the lowest among the current Top 7 NFC seeds.
The spotlight is shining brighter than the sun, and the hype train on the Bears is well down the tracks. The question is whether they are ready for this type of game with these kinds of stakes? The 49ers have been there, done that in this regard. This is a team that was in the Super Bowl just two years ago and has been to the NFC Championship Game in four of the last six seasons.
The 49ers are the more trustworthy bunch in this game with big-time implications.
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Houston Texans +8/Cleveland Browns +9
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
New Orleans Saints/Tennessee Titans Over 39.5
BEST OF THE REST
Miami Dolphins +6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
For more NFL Week 17 best bets, visit the NFL Week 17 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
