Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 18 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 18 best bets:
Detroit +3 at Chicago
One of the bigger stories of the 2025 NFL season has been the fall of the Detroit Lions. Many believed this would be their year to come out of the NFC after going 15-2 last season. One of my best bets in the VSiN Pro Football Betting Guide was the Lions Under 11.5 season wins because losing both coordinators seemed like too much for this team to overcome, and that proved to be the case, especially on offense, where Ben Johnson has the Chicago Bears as the NFC North Champions in his first season as head coach.
Detroit’s playoff hopes ended on Christmas in Minnesota with a 23-10 defeat despite holding Max Brosmer and the Vikings to three net passing yards. Yes, three net passing yards.
Chicago’s hopes of staying in the race for the NFC No. 1 seed fell by the wayside last week as the Bears still had a chance on the game’s final play but fell short in San Francisco. The Bears can still get the 2 seed and another matchup with Green Bay, with a victory over Detroit, but a loss would only drop them to No. 3, where a rematch with the 49ers or a battle with the Rams awaits.
Detroit is playing for pride and a winning season as it currently sits 8-8. So, there is a good reason to expect the Lions not to phone it in here. Meanwhile, the Bears would certainly like some payback for the 52-21 beatdown they suffered in Detroit all the way back in Week 2.
Jared Goff and head coach Dan Campbell are 23-13 ATS together as underdogs in Detroit.
The Bears have lived off turnovers defensively this season, and they are +22 in turnover margin, which is eight better than the next team (Houston +14). They have needed to do so considering Chicago’s rankings of No. 27 in yards allowed (357.3), No. 28 in rushing yards allowed (136), and 22nd in points allowed (24.8).
Despite defeat, Chicago was given its credit for going toe to toe in a big primetime road game against the 49ers last week. On the other hand, Detroit’s last impression on bettors was a disastrous performance in Minnesota. This is the buy low with Detroit here. Chicago, with more to play for and in some cold weather (low 20s), is only laying 3 here? Hmmmm.
Cincinnati -7.5 vs. Cleveland
At 6-10 and 4-12, neither of these teams has anything substantial to play for except for individual pride and records. Cleveland’s Myles Garrett is one sack away from the all-time single-season NFL record. Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase is currently two receptions behind Arizona’s Trey McBride and the LA Rams’ Puka Nacua for the league lead in receptions. As an aside note, before you bet every Chase prop over, keep in mind that these incentive props are already highly taxed.
Cleveland broke a four-game losing streak last week with a 13-6 win over Pittsburgh and got to leave a positive impression in front of the “Dawg Pound” after two previous close home losses to Tennessee and Buffalo over the past month.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s offense has been cooking again with Joe Burrow back under center and the offensive line starting to come together.
However, the defense has been the story as Cincinnati has given up three of its lowest four point totals of the season in the last three weeks. After being near historically bad levels in the meat of the season, first-year defensive coordinator Al Golden has implemented more three down linemen packages, and the team has improved its tackling substantially.
The Browns, 30th in total offense and 31st in scoring defense, are not likely to test the Bengals’ defense all that much here. Cincinnati has a chance to end the season on a three-game winning streak and carry some momentum into 2026 with a healthy Burrow.
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Washington Commanders +10/New York Giants +9.5
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
New Orleans Saints/Atlanta Falcons Over 43.5
BEST OF THE REST
Indianapolis Colts +10.5 at Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans +13.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars
For more NFL Week 18 best bets, visit the NFL Week 18 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
