Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 4 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 4 best bets:
New England -5.5 vs. Carolina
Both of these teams were part of misleading final scores last week. New England was on the losing end by a score of 21-14, but outgained Pittsburgh, 369 to 203. However, the Patriots committed five turnovers, and the Steelers got yet another one of their voodoo victories.
Meanwhile, Carolina shut out Atlanta 30-0. In that game, Atlanta outgained Carolina, 332-224, but the Falcons committed three turnovers and missed a pair of field goals.
New England is already 0-2 at home this season, and this looks like the spot to finally get on the board in Foxboro. They are likely to get CB Christian Gonzalez back for the first time. The Patriots have also been solid on offense, ranking seventh for EPA (Expected Points Added) per play and are 12th in success rate.
Carolina has already had trouble generating consistent offense and now are down TE Ja’Tavion Sanders along with WRs Xavier Legette and potentially first-round rookie draft pick Tetairoa McMillan. The Panthers are already down two starting guards with Robert Hunt and Austin Corbett on IR. Plus, RB Chuba Hubbard, like McMillan, is battling a calf injury.
Before we become too impressed with Carolina’s shutout victory last week, keep in mind this team was down 27-3 at one point against Arizona the week prior and was also blown out 26-10 against Jacksonville in the opener.
Jacksonville +3.5 at San Francisco
49ers QB Brock Purdy was cleared on Friday to start this Sunday’s game after missing the last two weeks with a toe injury. However, the market only moved up a half-point. This is because the 49ers, despite being 3-0, are going through another injury-riddled season. On offense, WR Brandon Aiyuk is still on IR, TE George Kittle is out, and WRs Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall have not been practicing yet this week. On defense, DL Nick Bosa tore his ACL last week and is now out for the season.
Jacksonville has had its own non-injury-related issues. For one, QB Trevor Lawrence has thrown the second-most interceptions in the league with four in the first three weeks. The Jaguars are also leading the league in dropped passes with 13.
San Francisco’s three victories have been by 4 (at Seattle), 5 (at New Orleans), and 1 (Arizona, on a last-second FG). While you never apologize for wins in the NFL, the Niners have been very fortunate, and eventually, it gets to a point where close-game regression sets in.
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Tennessee Titans/Houston Texans OVER 38.5
BEST OF THE REST
New York Giants +6.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Minnesota Vikings -140 ML vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Dublin)
New Orleans Saints +16 at Buffalo Bills
For more NFL Week 4 best bets, visit the NFL Week 4 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
