Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 4 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 4 best bets:
New England Patriots +7 at Buffalo Bills
Perhaps no team is more disappointing through three weeks than the defending AFC Champion New England Patriots. They have only scored 36 points in three games, which is tied for dead last in the NFL with fellow AFC East combatant Miami.
Last year’s passer rating leader Drake Maye has thrown only one TD pass and committed seven turnovers (6 INT, 1 Fumble). Maye had a 31-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio last season.
Buffalo somehow won and covered (24-16) last week against the Chargers despite being -4 in turnover margin and committing 10 penalties for 88 yards. That result may say more about the Chargers than the Bills. Nevertheless, the Bills are 3-0 SU and ATS. In the last 10 years, teams that start 3-0 ATS have gone 22-34 (39%) in Week 4, per John Ewing of BetMGM.
Even though this regression seemed inevitable considering the Patriots played against the league’s easiest schedule last season, this feels like the place to buy their low stock. Mike Vrabel is 30-18-2 ATS for his career as an underdog.
Houston Texans -145 ML vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Texans were picked by many, including me, to be the sleeper team in the AFC. Instead, Houston has started 0-3 largely due to an anemic offense ranking 26th in scoring (18 ppg) and 30th in rushing (84.7 ypg). Although he has committed only one turnover in three games, C.J. Stroud’s rebound year has yet to begin.
This week could perhaps be the “get right” spot for the Texans offense against a Dallas defense that ranks 30th in the league and is down four starters.
Over the last 10 seasons, 0-3 teams playing a team in Week 4 with at least one victory are 24-9-1 ATS (73%).
Houston’s season is on the brink, but they are in the AFC South, so even with its current position in the division’s cellar, they are not out of it yet.
Miami Dolphins +10.5 at Minnesota Vikings
It is no surprise to see Miami at 0-3, as the Dolphins are the youngest team in the league, and not much was expected from this bunch. They have not held the lead at any point in three games this season, and they lost their best offensive player, RB De’Von Achane, to a torn ACL last week in their 24-10 loss vs. Kansas City.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is 3-0 SU and ATS despite being outgained in all three games. The Vikings rank dead last in both total offense and passing offense. Even against the awful Dolphins, those numbers are unlikely to get better considering that WR Justin Jefferson is out with an ankle injury.
Granted, it is tough to go to the window here with the Dolphins, but it is just as difficult to lay double digits with a team that has been struggling so much offensively and has had its fair share of turnover luck and getting to play at Chicago for most of the game with the Bears not having Caleb Williams.
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Atlanta Falcons +8.5/Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5
BEST OF THE REST
New York Jets +3.5 at Chicago Bears
Kansas City Chiefs/Las Vegas Raiders Under 48
For more NFL Week 4 best bets, visit the NFL Week 4 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
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