Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 5 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 5 best bets:
New Orleans Saints +3 -125 vs. Minnesota Vikings
After last Monday night, watching the Saints get blown out in the Superdome on the 20th anniversary of the first post-Hurricane Katrina game, we are all in a rush to take New Orleans against the 4-0 Vikings, right?
Despite ranking dead last in passing offense and success rate and second-to-last in total offense, Minnesota is unbeaten. The offensive woes for the Vikings could continue with WR Justin Jefferson still questionable and more than likely to sit out, considering the team has a bye next week. WR Jordan Addison is also questionable. In addition, LT Christian Darrisaw and LG Donovan Jackson (IR) are out this week. Minnesota is also 26th in rushing success rate.
While the Saints defense hasn’t been great, this is a big step down in class after facing the Lions, Ravens, Raiders, and Falcons, three of which ranked in the top 10 offensively.
The Saints have also covered their last seven as an underdog.
Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The unbeaten 49ers take to the road for their first true road game of the season and play in arguably the league’s toughest road environment.
San Francisco also comes into this one with a lot of injuries, especially on the DL and at WR.
The Seahawks defense ranks No. 2 in EPA/play and in success rate. Keep in mind that this group held Brock Purdy and the Niners to 3 and 6 points the last two times these teams met, including a 41-6 blowout in the divisional round.
Sure, the 49ers have the playoff revenge here, but that is priced into the number, plus Seattle’s deceiving loss at Washington and messing around not putting the Chargers away last week.
Kyle Shanahan has closed as a dog vs. Seattle eight times and his 49ers are 1-7 SU, including 0-4 SU on the road.
Against teams above .500, Seattle under Mike McDonald is 16-6 SU and 13-8-1 ATS, so he likely has his club up for this game.
Baltimore Ravens +3.5 at Atlanta Falcons
The market could not be higher on Atlanta after two dominating wins in standalone games on Thursday Night Football at Green Bay and last Monday Night Football at New Orleans. Michael Penix Jr’s return has reinvigorated the offense, and Bijan Robinson is the co-favorite in many markets for Offensive Player of the Year.
Meanwhile, Baltimore allowed Tennessee in the backdoor last week when Lamar Jackson left with an ankle injury. However, the Ravens never threw the ball downfield since they did not have a real gameplan for Scoop Huntley. They were just trying to bleed out of the game and get it over without any further injuries. This week, they will have a gameplan specific for Huntley, who has been taking all the reps with the No. 1s and will start.
The last two weeks, the Falcons defense has been good, but they were playing against banged-up offensive lines with Green Bay and New Orleans.
The lookahead (before the Lamar injury and the Atlanta MNF performance) was Baltimore -6.5. Now this is a 10-point turnaround, and that is just a bit too much.
BEST OF THE REST
Washington Commanders -3.5 vs. New York Giants
Las Vegas Raiders/New England Patriots Over 45
New York Jets -130 ML vs. Cleveland Browns
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Houston Texans -1/Green Bay Packers +7.5 (6-point teaser)
For more NFL Week 5 best bets, visit the NFL Week 5 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
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