In Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season, the Sunday Night Football matchup sees a Lamar Jackson-less Baltimore Ravens team taking on the red-hot Atlanta Falcons in Georgia. Keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 5 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Ravens vs. Falcons
When: Sunday, October 11 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
Channel: NBC
Ravens vs. Falcons Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Friday, October 9. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Falcons -180, Ravens +150
Spread: Falcons -3.5 (-102), Ravens +3.5 (-118)
Total: Over 43.5 (-115), Under 43.5 (-105)
Ravens vs. Falcons Analysis
Jackson being out is a massive blow to Baltimore. The Ravens are currently No. 4 in the NFL in EPA/Play (0.160), and they’re second in Dropback EPA/Play (0.328). Jackson also happens to be No. 1 in the league in Pro Football Focus grade, as he’s at a 91.4 on the season. Jackson has just taken extremely well to Declan Doyle’s offensive scheme, and it sucks he’ll be out for this specific matchup.
Fortunately for Baltimore, Tyler Huntley is still around. Huntley has always served as a good backup for Jackson, and he has a 5-6 record as a starter for the Ravens. Things could certainly be worse. And an injury to Jackson might not crush Baltimore’s chances against most teams. But it could prove costly against this one.
The Falcons have looked like the best team in football since Michael Penix Jr. returned to action. The Cooper Rush experience was rough on the eyes, but Penix’s play has has served as the eye-washing station from a middle school science class. The southpaw isn’t setting the world on fire, but he has a PFF passing grade of 80.1. That’s a top-10 mark in the NFL, and just quickly distributing the ball without making mistakes is allowing Kevin Stefanski’s offense to hum. Now, Atlanta’s pass-catching weapons are being fed, plus we’re also seeing Bijan Robinson absolutely gash defenses on the ground.
As far as this game goes, the Ravens defense could be in for it. Baltimore has been burnable in the run game, and Robinson is going to find some holes to hit. Then, once he does, that’s when Penix will start to make plays through the air.
I also love Atlanta’s defense, and that’s why I’m actually starting to come around on this team as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Falcons are currently No. 8 in the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed (-0.055), and they were performing at a high level even while Rush stunk it up with the offense. Atlanta has been the league’s best rushing defense, and the team has been just fine against the pass.
It’s just hard not to feel like the Falcons will keep Derrick Henry in check, meaning the Ravens will have to rely a little more on Huntley than they’d like. That’s ultimately why I can see this game being somewhat straightforward for Atlanta, and I’m a little surprised the Falcons are only laying 3.5 at most books.
Ravens vs. Falcons Player Props
LEAN: Derrick Henry Under 81.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
This isn’t a game in which I’m looking to take a player prop, but I do think Henry’s rushing yard total is a little high. Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 71.26 yards, and you can get Under 81.5. As previously mentioned, Henry will be going up against the league’s best rushing defense, and he’ll be doing so in tough circumstances. Atlanta will likely be even more aggressive in loading up the box, as the team will be just fine with forcing Huntley to make plays through the air. That means Henry will consistently see a ton of bodies in the backfield.
Ravens vs. Falcons Pick
I’d be completely fine with taking -3.5, but I saw some shops with -3 when putting this in Friday night and pounced at that number. If you throw the first two weeks out the window, Atlanta is comfortably at the top of the league in RBSDM’s team tiers (based on Net EPA/Play). Well, it feels like a no-brainer to back a top-tier team in a home game against a backup quarterback. If the Falcons are as good as I think they are, they’ll get this done and win by at least a field goal.
Bet: Falcons -3 (-118)
