Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 7 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 7 best bets:
Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is off its bye and rolling at 5-0 and has actually won 10 games in a row dating back to last season. On the other hand, Indianapolis is a disappointing 2-4 and put an end to the 10-year Chris Ballard era last Monday after a home loss to winless Tennessee.
It would appear that the Colts will be selling off some players before the Tuesday, November 10th trade deadline.
This is the proverbial two teams heading in opposite directions and yet this line has hung under 7 all week with little to no line movement? Things that make you go “Hmmmm.“
The Vikings defense has carried the day, ranking No. 2 in EPA, No. 1 in EPA/play, and No. 1 in success rate. However, the offense is 25th in EPA/play.
Minnesota may have caught the bye week at the wrong time because they were winning games, and perhaps their momentum gets stalled here. The Vikings also have a road game at Detroit next week to go 3-0 in the NFC North.
The numbers are not great really anywhere for the Colts, but the firing of Ballard could be at least a short-term wakeup call that jobs are on the line, and they should play with a little pride here.
Houston Texans (-10) vs. New York Giants
Houston has saved its season by winning its last two games, both in the AFC South. Now they can go for three wins in a row before the bye week feeling re-energized after an 0-4 start.
The Giants got exposed last week by a bad New Orleans team. The box score will look lopsided in the G-Men’s favor because JJ McCarthy, who will start this week, rallied them back from a 34-10 deficit to close the gap to a 7-point defeat.
Last year’s Texans defense was near the top in the NFL, but this year’s group has been disappointing, ranking just 20th in EPA/play. Nevertheless, they still rank 4th in sacks and will bring extra pressure at McCarthy.
The Giants have played the weakest schedule thus far in the league, and there is a reason why they are getting double digits here from just a 2-4 team.
Seattle Seahawks (-145 ML) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is one of three unbeaten (San Francisco, Minnesota) teams left in the NFL. The Chiefs rank 5th in Total EPA Offense and 3rd in Total EPA Defense. The offense has only given up 6 sacks and committed just 3 turnovers.
5-0 is 5-0, but the Chiefs have done this against the No. 30 schedule. They’ve played two winless teams (Miami, LA Chargers), and an Indianapolis team who has already fired its General Manager.
Meanwhile, Seattle is just 3-3 but is better than its record indicates, at least defensively. The defense is No. 1 EPA, but the offense is 28th as they have clearly missed Klint Kubiak and Kenneth Walker III, who is now on the KC sideline and is a current favorite to win Offensive POY. Despite the offensive woes, the Seahawks could easily be 5-1. Earlier this season, they outgained the Commanders by 179 yards but lost thanks to a -3 TO margin. History repeated itself last week as they outgained the Broncos by 185 yards but lost thanks to another -3 TO margin.
Seattle does have the rest advantage from playing on Thursday night and certainly should have a max effort here, sitting at 3-3 and losing all 3 of those games by three points or less.
Backing the Seahawks, of course, means betting against Patrick Mahomes, who when he closes as a favorite of under 3 points or is an underdog in the game, has a mark of 23-12 SU and 24-10-1 ATS.
Despite the trend and the undefeated record, Kansas City just might be a dog with fleas this week.
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Buccaneers +9/Falcons +8.5 (6-point teaser)
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Giants/Texans Over 42.5
BEST OF THE REST
Falcons +3 (-130) vs. 49ers
For more NFL Week 7 best bets, visit the NFL Week 7 Betting Hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
