NFL Player Props
The demand remains high and the sportsbooks are willing to meet it with a large supply of Week 7 NFL player prop odds. There are so many players listed and so many different ways to attack the board, even if you don’t have opinions on traditional wagers like the spread and total. Many people prefer going the prop route. That includes VSiN Pro Subscribers who have access to our OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections.
I’ve looked through those and also looked over what the sportsbooks have to offer to find some of my favorite props for Week 7.
I’ve got my First Touchdown Scorer picks here.
As always, shop around for these Week 7 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 7:50 a.m. PT on Friday, October 23 and are from DraftKings.
Here are my favorite Week 7 NFL Player Prop Bets:
John Metchie III (CAR) Longest Reception Over 8.5 Yards (-120)
The Bucs have allowed the most yards after catch in the league this season with 792 over their six games. They’ve only allowed 629 air yards, but have had some tackling issues and guys have been able to sneak out and turn modest gains into bigger pickups.
Metchie did not play in Week 1 and only had seven snaps in Week 2, plus a couple of kick return attempts. He’s had 43, 28, and 27 snaps in the three games since with seven catches on 13 targets. So, we need Bryce Young to find him here and that’s something he hasn’t done often. However, Metchie does have 11.4 yards per reception and 4.3 yards after catch per reception. He’s also progressively had a higher average depth of target, so Dave Canales and Brad Idzik are trying to make him a downfield option. He’s had 7.4 yards per target and 8.0 yards per target over the last two games.
Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Fannin has been running a lot of cardio during games this season. Despite playing 328 total snaps – 87.7% of the Browns offensive snaps – he only has 19 catches on 30 targets. He had seven of those catches in one game back in Week 3 against Carolina. He’s had three or fewer catches in four of six games and only has one catch in each of the last two games.
The Titans have numerous offensive issues, but Robert Saleh has the defense playing well. They’ve especially shut down tight ends so far. Over six games, opposing TEs only have 27 catches for 175 yards. Only the Seahawks have allowed fewer yards to that position group. For whatever reason, Watson’s targeting Fannin by throwing balls at his feet under duress and OC Travis Switzer hasn’t figured out how to use him yet. Figuring that out against the Titans seems tough.
Our OptaAI projection for Fannin is just 23.83 receiving yards.
Geno Smith (NYJ) Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-111)
The Dolphins haven’t done a lot of things right this season, but they have effectively stopped the run. They enter this game with just 3.7 yards per carry allowed, which ranks eighth in the NFL. As you would expect, they’ve faced a lot of running plays because they trail so much, but the defense has held its own against the opposition in that respect.
The Jets only have 3.6 yards per carry on the season. Frank Reich keeps trying to run the ball, but that part of the team hasn’t found much success. I think this is a great opportunity to let Geno eat. He’s been sacked 19 times and his 159 sack yards are the most in the NFL. In this game, though, he draws a Dolphins defense that only has four sacks with just a 6.3% Hurry% and an 18.4% Pressure% per Pro-Football-Reference. Smith should have time to go through his projections and the weather is actually nice in the Meadowlands for once.
Let’s see if those conditions can prove OptaAI wrong, as it projects Smith for just 182.17 passing yards.
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