Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 8 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 8 best bets:
New York Jets +6.5 at Cincinnati
The J-E-T-S (Just End The Season) are the lone remaining winless team in the NFL. Tyrod Taylor is trending toward getting the start at QB, but he is still listed as questionable on the injury report. It has not mattered much who starts under center for the Jets as the offense is only averaging 18.4 ppg (31st of 32). Regardless of who starts at QB, there is one saving grace for the Jets offense: the Bengals defense are ranked 31st in both total defense (394.4 ypg) and scoring defense (30.6 ppg).
Joe Flacco was able to turn back the clock last week, throwing for 342 yards and three touchdowns to lead an upset over the Steelers. Keep in mind, this Bengals team was getting +14 on the road at Green Bay just two weeks ago. Now they are laying close to a touchdown at home to anyone?
Houston -125 ML vs. San Francisco
We have two teams off disparate results on national TV standalone games last week. San Francisco won on Sunday Night despite not getting a lot of support in the market vs. Atlanta. Meanwhile, Houston was defeated on Monday Night in Seattle and struggled to run the ball (56 yards on 17 carries) yet again.
The 49ers have continued to defy the odds with a 5-2 record despite being ravaged with injuries. Mac Jones will start again at QB in place of Brock Purdy, and he is 4-1 as the starter. However, the 49ers are down three starters on the defensive line, plus defensive captain and leader LB Fred Warner, and three receivers.
Without those DL, the 49ers struggle to get pressure, so Texans QB CJ Stroud should have more time in the pocket to make some plays (despite no Nico Collins at WR – concussion), and the running game should have an easier time than on Monday night going against the league’s top rush defense.
Speaking of defense, Houston ranks No. 1 in scoring defense (14.7 ppg) and No. 4 in total defense (274.2 ypg).
At 2-4, Houston has its back against the wall and DeMeco Ryans should have a good defensive game plan against his old 49ers mates.
Baltimore -7 vs. Chicago
The 1-5 Ravens are still just five cents higher of a price than the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers to win the division. Baltimore is starting to get healthy again. QB Lamar Jackson is back, but so are LB Roquan Smith, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Kyle Hamilton, CB Marlon Humphrey, LT Ronnie Stanley, and WR DeAndre Hopkins.
The Bears have won four consecutive games, and you never apologize for victories in this league. However, they have been extremely lucky. They are +13 in turnover margin (15 takeaways, 2 giveaways) over the course of those aforementioned four games. That is unsustainable. It is especially unsustainable after seeing Friday’s injury report with Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson out for Sunday, and fellow secondary member Jaylon Johnson is already on IR. LT Braxton Jones is also out for Sunday.
The Ravens are healthier and chomping at the bit off the bye to lay out a team that has been a little fortunate and might be just a little overvalued.
Pittsburgh +3 vs. Green Bay
The Pack are playing its second consecutive road game, traveling to Arizona and now all the way back east to face the Steelers, who are on extra rest from their Thursday Night loss at Cincinnati.
This is the vintage Mike Tomlin spot where he has flourished his entire career in Pittsburgh. Off a loss, Tomlin is 61-46 ATS (57%). He is 25-14 ATS as an underdog off an outright loss, including 12-3 ATS as a home dog off a SU loss.
As a home underdog in general, Tomlin is 19-13 SU and 22-7-3 ATS.
Aaron Rodgers has defeated 31 of 32 teams in the NFL, except for the one that drafted him: The Green Bay Packers.
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Tennessee Titans/Indianapolis Colts Over 47.5
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Baltimore Ravens -1/New Orleans Saints +10
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