Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 9 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 9 best bets:
Atlanta +5.5 at New England
This is perhaps the ultimate “buy low, sell high” spot of the week.
New England has won five games in a row and have covered as touchdown favorites for two consecutive weeks. Meanwhile, Atlanta had one of the worst performances you could have as a touchdown favorite, losing at home to Miami, who looked dreadful on Thursday Night Football against Baltimore in a 28-6 defeat.
The Patriots are now leading the AFC East, and Drake Maye is all of a sudden getting MVP talk on all the chatter shows. We saw what happened a couple of weeks ago when Baker Mayfield started to get MVP talk and then proceeded to have his worst game of the year on Monday Night Football at Detroit. That may not necessarily happen to Maye, but New England is starting to get priced to the hilt here.
Keep in mind, other than the win at Buffalo, the Patriots’ wins are over five of the league’s worst teams: Miami, Carolina, New Orleans, Tennessee, and Cleveland.
Atlanta looked like one of the league’s worst teams last week, but they were without QB Michael Penix Jr and WR Drake London plus four defensive starters. The QB-WR combo will be back and most of the defensive starters should return as well for a pass defense that leads the league in allowing the fewest passing yards per game.
Pittsburgh +3.5 vs. Indianapolis
The Colts have been the talk of the league thus far. At 7-1, Indianapolis has the best record in football. They have a +116-point differential through eight games. Daniel Jones has made the most of his second chance as a starting QB in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor is starting to get some MVP discussion. New principal owner and Colts CEO Carlie Irsay-Gordon is no longer being mocked for wearing a headset and taking notes on the sidelines. It is all good in the neighborhood for the Colts.
However, Indianapolis has played one of the league’s easiest schedules, including twice against the terrible Titans. The schedule starts to get tougher from here on out.
Pittsburgh did not look so tough last week on Sunday Night Football, especially being dominated in the second half. The typically stout defense looks old and slow. The offense also needs help at wide receiver.
The same thing that was said last week about Pittsburgh’s history as an underdog, especially at home under Mike Tomlin, can be repeated this week. Even after last week’s loss, Tomlin is 22-8-3 ATS in that role and is also 12-4 ATS as a home pup off a loss.
This is new territory for the Colts being a road favorite over at least a competent team. Indy is the talk of the NFL media while the Steelers have gotten ripped apart all week. This could be the rally spot for Pittsburgh, and they should have an even bigger sense of urgency with Baltimore coming back from a 1-5 start and beginning to get healthier.
Houston -122 ML vs. Denver
While the Colts winning the AFC South seems to be a ‘fait accompli’, the Titans got a much-needed victory over the 49ers last week and posted its best offensive output of the season (475 yards) for an offense that has had its struggles running the ball and protecting QB CJ Stroud.
Denver has now won five straight games, but some of those wins have been fortunate, including a 13-11 win in London over the hapless Jets and having to come back at home down 26-8 in the fourth quarter against the lowly Giants.
The Broncos put up 44 points and 426 yards on a bad Dallas defense last weekend. It will not be as easy for Bo Nix and company on Sunday though as the Texans are No. 1 in the NFL for both total and scoring defense. Nix has been shaky on the road for the most part and he ranks 24th amongst regular starting QBs in completion percentage and 26th for yards per attempt.
Denver has overachieved a bit due to a softer early schedule (29th) while Houston has played a much tougher slate (eighth).
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Los Angeles Chargers/Tennessee Titans Over 43.5
TEASER OF THE WEEK
New York Giants +8.5/Washington Commanders +9
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