Wes Reynolds: NFL Wild Card Best Bets
Here are my NFL Wild Card best bets:
Los Angeles Rams/Carolina Under 46.5
Going into Week 13, the Rams were rolling on a six-game winning streak before being upset as 10-point favorites at Carolina, 31-28. Los Angeles was done in by three turnovers from Matthew Stafford.
With the Rams now laying -10.5 in the rematch, the Carolina Panthers now have the honor, or dishonor as it were, of being the biggest home underdog in NFL Playoff history, and the number is certainly justified.
I am more interested in the total.
In the first meeting, Carolina scored on a pick-six and two touchdowns on fourth down. That game was an outlier from an offensive standpoint. Carolina also runs it the 10th-most in the league, but the Rams are fifth in rush defense DVOA, so the Panthers certainly look to have an offensive ceiling.
Defensively, however, Carolina does a very good job of disguising coverages and did confuse Stafford in Week 13.
Green Bay (-115 ML) at Chicago
The Bears have defied the odds all year and won the NFC North despite having a losing record in divisional games (just the second team in the last 30 years to achieve that).
Furthermore, Chicago had six victories this season when trailing with 2:00 or less to go. Moreover, the Bears were +22 in turnover margin (1st in the NFL).
The Bears are 29th in total defense and 27th in rushing defense.
Green Bay should have swept this series as the Packers never trailed in regulation during either meeting. The Packers also got a late-season bye, essentially resting everyone in Week 18 at Minnesota.
I think the market has it right here with the move to the Pack.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) at New England
The New England Patriots went 14-3, led by Drake Maye, who very well could win MVP.
However, the impressive record needs to have some context added to it. For one, New England beat one team with a winning record this season. They not only faced bad teams but also faced a massive slate of backup or benched QBs:
Week 2 @ MIA vs. Tua Tagovailoa (benched later in the season)
Week 6 @ NO vs. Spencer Rattler (benched)
Week 7 @ TEN vs. Cameron Ward (rookie)
Week 8 vs. CLE vs. Dillon Gabriel (rookie backup)
Week 11 vs. NYJ vs. Justin Fields (benched)
Week 12 @ CIN vs. Joe Flacco (backup)
Week 13 vs. NYG vs. Jaxson Dart (rookie)
Week 16 @ BAL vs. Tyler Huntley (backup replaced Lamar Jackson after early injury)
Week 17 @ NYJ vs. Brady Cook (third-string rookie backup)
Week 18 vs. MIA vs. Quinn Ewers (rookie backup)
Now they get a well-rested Chargers team whose defense started to peak late in the season and have to face Justin Herbert, who is 12-2-1 ATS in his career as an underdog of more than 3 points.
Herbert has had 25 different five-man offensive line combinations this season and has been pressured on 42.8% of his drop-backs and was sacked 54 times. Nevertheless, he is still ticking, and the Patriots, ranked 26th in sacks, may not be able to take advantage of the revolving door that is the Chargers’ offensive line.
The Chargers QB has yet to win a playoff game in his career, but he should get it here against a New England group that has been a bit of a paper tiger this season.
BEST OF THE REST
San Francisco 49ers/Philadelphia Eagles Under 44.5
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