Super Bowl 58 MVP debate

Everybody has an opinion on everything for the Super Bowl. That includes the MVP market. We have plenty of different Super Bowl MVP opinions across the network, but our participants in “The Great Debate” will be Jonathan Von Tobel, Adam Burke, and Zachary Cohen.

Whether you agree, disagree, or like somebody else to woo the voters and claim the award, JVT, Adam, and Zach will be making impassioned cases for their picks to win the Most Valuable Player of Super Bowl LVIII in a back-and-forth, mostly civil discussion.

 

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Kansas City Chiefs

Jonathan Von Tobel: It’s an old adage in journalism: Keep it simple, stupid. There’s no need to overthink this. Thirty-two of 57 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks. Twelve of the last 16 MVPs have been quarterbacks. Kansas City also has the best quarterback of his generation, and the face of the league in Patrick Mahomes. If the Chiefs win this game – barring a ridiculous 3-0 final score – Mahomes (+125) will get the nod from the voters come Super Bowl Sunday.

Adam Burke: Calling me stupid already?! You haven’t even heard what I have to say! I will grant that it is a QB-driven award, but let me take you back in time. The year was 2005…

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots won Super Bowl XXXVIII (38) in 2004 and were looking to run it back in Super Bowl XXIX (39). Brady won the second of his five Super Bowl MVPs in 38, but you know what the voters did in 39? They gave the MVP to Deion Branch. Why? He caught 11 passes of Brady’s 23 completions and racked up 133 of his 236 yards. He didn’t even have a TD catch!

Voters didn’t want to give it to Brady for a second straight year. Two guys in Super Bowl history have won back-to-back MVPs – Terry Bradshaw (13 & 14) and Bart Starr (1 & 2). When the Broncos won B2B, it was Terrell Davis and then John Elway. Cowboys – Emmitt Smith and Troy Aikman. 49ers – Joe Montana and Jerry Rice.

What changes this year?

JVT: I’m going to go out on a limb and say the voters who voted for MVP in Super Bowls I, II, XIII and XIV are not going to be deciding who wins the award on Sunday. I’m sure they’re … not covering the league anymore.

What changes this year is that Mahomes is putting the stamp on a run of dominance we haven’t seen since Brady. He also gets a defense that has been subpar, especially in the secondary.

Jared Goff picked this defense apart in the NFC Championship Game. On the dropbacks in which he was not pressured, Goff went 22 of 28 for 247 yards and 8.8 yards per attempt. He also posted a PFF passing grade of 78.2 on passes of 20 or more yards downfield, and the 49ers did not force a single turnover worthy play on those attempts.

Lamar Jackson challenged this secondary on Christmas Day and completed 7-of-11 attempts 10-19 yards downfield for two touchdowns and 9.3 yards per attempt.

Joe Burrow obliterated this secondary when they faced him back in Week 8. Burrow went 3 for 3 and a touchdown on throws 20 or more yards downfield against them. For the day he had a PFF passing grade of 85.7 and averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt.

When this defense has been at its worst this season it has been against legitimate quarterbacks. I would say that Mahomes – who has completed 67.4% of his passes in the postseason with a 5.3 touchdown-to-interception ratio – is a legitimate quarterback who can challenge this unit.

Burke: Those voters are not…at least not to my knowledge, though I’m guessing some of them still have BBWAA votes for the Baseball Hall of Fame. But, that’s a different discussion entirely.

Mahomes deserves his flowers, but he’s gotten many bouquets already. You know who hasn’t? Travis Kelce. A tight end has never won the Super Bowl MVP and, let’s be honest, Mahomes has done a lot of what he’s done, especially this season/postseason, because of Mr. Taylor Swift.

This postseason, Kelce (+1200) has accounted for 36.5% of Mahomes’ passing yards, 75% of the passing touchdowns, and nearly 33% of the receptions. During that stretch, Kelce became the most prolific pass-catcher in playoff history. Call it a lifetime achievement award. Call it an easy story to write making MVP history. Call it an easy story for clicks to simply mention the global pop icon that he’s dating.

Damien Williams should have won the MVP in Super Bowl LIV, but voters were lazy and also submitted before his final rushing touchdown. Kelce had 6-43-1 in that game and Mahomes was really, really pedestrian. He only threw for 182 yards last season, but won MVP. The voters want something different and arguably the best TE ever is something different.

If Mahomes is good enough to win it, Kelce will be a big part of the reason why. And the price is a lot better.

JVT: Kelce is getting 33% of his receptions and 36.5% of his yardage, but you know who is doing 100% of the work? Patrick Mahomes!!!

Look, at the end of the day the plan should be to play Mahomes, especially if you like Kansas City. Quarterbacks are the favorite to win the award for a reason. A Chiefs victory heavily correlates with Mahomes winning the award. Instead of taking a watered-down moneyline price of +105, bettors will be in a much better spot with a Mahomes MVP ticket in their pocket.

San Francisco 49ers

JVT: Once again, I’ll make the obvious choice here and go with the quarterback. I was vocal with my dissension when it came to Brock Purdy winning MVP in the regular season, but this is obviously much different.

Purdy (+225) has the strongest narrative of the potential 49ers candidates being a former “Mr. Irrelevant”. I also believe San Francisco’s loaded roster works in his favor. What happens if Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle all score? Purdy will get the benefit of the doubt if the playmakers of the 49ers do their job. To me, he is the obvious choice for San Francisco, as the odds reflect.

Zachary Cohen: At what point do you become relevant enough to shed the “Mr. Irrelevant” tag? It sure seems like we’re talking about this guy a lot. I actually have a soft spot for Purdy as a big college football bettor. I absolutely loved him when he was at Iowa State, even if that backwards pick-6 he threw against TCU is up there as one of the worst plays I’ve ever seen. He’s also an Arizona guy and I drive by quite a few billboards cheering the Gilbert product on. However, I have been in the “system quarterback” camp for most of the season. He has done a great job of doing what Kyle Shanahan has asked of him, but I’m not sure he can do much more than that. And his play in these playoffs has left a lot to be desired. 

It just feels like we’re a miraculous Brandon Aiyuk reception away from having a much different conversation about Purdy. Sure, he made some tremendous plays with his legs against the Lions, but this 49ers passing game isn’t clicking the way it should. And Purdy is now entering the biggest game of his life, meaning the pressure on him will be insurmountable. 

I also just can’t shake the fact that the best pathway for the 49ers to win this game is by riding McCaffrey’s legs. Kansas City was 27th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA against the rush this season. This is not a defense that can be trusted to stop the run, and San Francisco happens to have the most explosive runner in the league. So, I just wouldn’t be shocked if the 49ers really pound away with McCaffrey (+475), especially after seeing the Ravens completely abandon the running game in the AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs have a steller secondary, so why test it more than you need to? 

JVT: You want to go DVOA, Cohen? Let’s do it!

Do you know where Kansas City ranks by DVOA standards covering running backs out of the backfield? A whopping 21st of 32 teams!

For as good as this secondary is, the linebackers struggle in coverage. Drue Tranquill is the best linebacker in coverage by PFF standards and his grade is only a 66.4! Four linebackers for the Chiefs who have dropped back into coverage have a PFF coverage grade of 56.9 or lower!

Shanahan’s system loves to pick on linebackers. It moves them from side to side, gets them flowing one way when the destination of the play is really the other, and it specifically attacks that position group. It could be a massive day for McCaffrey, but that could come by way of receptions.

Purdy was second in PFF passing grade among qualified quarterbacks on play action pass attempts (93.3). He completed 79.8% of those attempts for 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. One way to limit the mistakes of a quarterback is effective play action, and there is plenty of evidence to suggest he can dominate with a play fake.

Why would you challenge the secondary when you can just pick on the weak linebacker core?

Cohen: In my best Skip Bayless voice: Shannon, I hear you…BUT…

I definitely see a scenario in which McCaffrey eats as a pass catcher out of the backfield. But again, I think the voters would be smart enough not to credit Purdy for the work McCaffrey does after the catch. Nobody wants to see a quarterback dinking and dunking his way to a Super Bowl MVP. Even short crossing routes to McCaffrey would look better on him than Purdy. 

In order for Purdy to win MVP, I think we’ll need to see him put up big numbers — or make throws that average quarterbacks can’t make. Nick Foles threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns when the Eagles beat the Patriots in 2018. It’s disrespectful to compare Purdy to Foles, but I do think the 49ers signal caller will need to wow people in order to shake his league-wide perception. 

Of course, a running back hasn’t won this award since Terrell Davis did it in Super Bowl XXXII (back in 1998). But this is a game in which the Under looks like the right play, and that benefits McCaffrey as a workhorse back. I just feel better about taking McCaffrey at +475 odds, even if it’s more likely Purdy wins. If McCaffrey rushes for 100 yards and a score and Purdy doesn’t throw for multiple touchdowns, I can’t see that being enough for the quarterback to win. 

JVT: Zach, you hit on my biggest issue with betting McCaffrey for MVP. A same game parlay of San Francisco moneyline, both McCaffrey Over 89.5 rushing yards and Anytime Touchdown and Purdy Under 1.5 touchdown passes has +750 odds at DraftKings. All of those things need to happen for him to win MVP, so why bet him to do so at the price the market has?

I admit that the market has it right in saying McCaffrey has the best odds of the non-quarterbacks, but there’s no need to overthink this thing. Just bet the signal-caller of the side you like and call it a night.

All compelling arguments. All players that could very well be worthy of the award, but there are others that could win as well. Only one team will be crowned the champion and only one player’s name will join the prestigious group of 58 (multiple MVPs in Super Bowl XII). Chuck Howley (Super Bowl V) is the only player to win the Super Bowl MVP on the losing team, an honor that will probably never happen again, so the first step is picking the winning team before looking into who will win the MVP.

Lastly, as we put an end to the football season on Sunday, note that JVT and Zach are not only sharp NFL minds, but also our resident NBA experts at VSiN.com and both are having strong years with their picks and analysis. Catch their write-ups throughout the remainder of the NBA season and on into the playoffs, plus hear them on the Hardwood Handicappers Podcast along with VSiN Senior Producer and co-host Kelley Bydlon.

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