NFL First Touchdown
Happy NFL Playoffs! We’ve made it to the end of the regular season and have cut the number of teams in action from 32 to 14. Actually, though, only 12 will take the field this week because the Broncos and Seahawks will enjoy a well-earned week of rest for being the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences. While being able to narrow your focus may help in some sports, in a very tight market like the NFL, it isn’t really an advantage. And for our purposes in looking at the First Touchdown Scorer market, it’s not super helpful.
Nevertheless, we have 17 data points for each of these teams and can attempt to take some shots based on what we’ve seen and researched over the course of the season. Theoretically, all of these teams are good when we get to this point, so I’m not sure just how valuable this sample size is, but there are some teams that do have more success than others with the scripted drive and with their plans heading into the game. Other teams are here because they are better at making adjustments. Hopefully we can hit on the first set.
One last time, let’s look at the First Touchdown Scorers by position for the regular season. I’ll include this for the postseason, but in a different way.
QB: 2 (36)
RB: 9 (176)
WR: 9 (187)
TE: 5 (82)
D/ST: 2 (26)
No TD: 5 (36)
OL: 0 (1)* – likely a refund because offensive linemen aren’t listed
Five teams failed to score in Week 18, including our first No TD game for both teams, as the Chiefs and Raiders just exchanged field goals and a safety. I’m not sure if the early-season barrage of TE first TDs is something that will carry over to next season or not, but the pace really did slack off as the year went along.
You can always access the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker and see what has happened so far this season and make some inferences and subsequently wagers that way.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 15/17 (88.2%) |
| Eagles | 12/17 (70.6%) |
| Jaguars | 12/17 (70.6%) |
| Seahawks | 12/17 (70.6%) |
| Lions | 11/17 (64.7%) |
| Bears | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Broncos | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Bucs | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Giants | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Packers | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| Rams | 10/17 (58.8%) |
| 49ers | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Bills | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Browns | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Cowboys | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Texans | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Ravens | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Steelers | 9/17 (52.9%) |
| Bengals | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Chargers | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Dolphins | 8/17 (47.1%) |
| Chiefs | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Falcons | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Panthers | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Patriots | 7/17 (41.2%) |
| Cardinals | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Titans | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Vikings | 6/17 (35.3%) |
| Commanders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Raiders | 5/17 (29.4%) |
| Jets | 3/17 (17.6%) |
| Saints | 3/17 (17.6%) |
Here are just the playoff teams:
| Playoff teams | First TD of game/games played | Success rate |
| Eagles | 12/17 | 70.60% |
| Jaguars | 12/17 | 70.60% |
| Seahawks | 12/17 | 70.60% |
| Bears | 10/17 | 58.80% |
| Broncos | 10/17 | 58.80% |
| Packers | 10/17 | 58.80% |
| Rams | 10/17 | 58.80% |
| 49ers | 9/17 | 52.90% |
| Bills | 9/17 | 52.90% |
| Steelers | 9/17 | 52.90% |
| Texans | 9/17 | 52.90% |
| Chargers | 8/17 | 47.10% |
| Panthers | 7/17 | 41.20% |
| Patriots | 7/17 | 41.20% |
I won’t include the regular season next week and moving forward, but will include the playoff teams.
Recent streaks and miscellaneous notes for the playoff teams:
- The Bills broke a streak of five straight games without scoring first in their finale against the Jets; Buffalo is 3/5 against playoff teams this season (NE, CAR, HOU // NE, PHI)
- The Panthers have failed to score first in three straight and four of their last five; Carolina is 2/7 against playoff teams this season (NE, GB // JAX, BUF, SF, LAR, SEA)
- The Bears have not scored on their first possession since Week 9, but are 6/9 in first TDs in that span; Chicago is 3/5 against playoff teams this season (PIT, PHI, SF // GB, GB)
- The Packers have only scored on their first possession in 3/17 games and are just 5/12 since starting the season 5/5; Green Bay is 3/6 against playoff teams this season (PIT, CHI, CHI // CAR, PHI, DEN)
- The Texans had scored first in four straight before Week 18; Houston is 2/8 against playoff teams this season (SF, LAC // LAR, JAX, SEA, DEN, JAX, BUF)
- The Jaguars had scored first in seven straight and 12/15 before not scoring first in their last two games; Jacksonville is 7/8 against playoff teams this season (CAR, HOU, SF, SEA, HOU, LAC, DEN // LAR)
- The Chargers have not scored first in four straight and were 1/8 scoring first in true road games; Los Angeles (A) is 3/6 against playoff teams this season (DEN, PIT, PHI // JAX, HOU, DEN)
- The Rams scored first in seven straight from Weeks 6-13, then did not score first in four straight before doing so in Week 18; Los Angeles (N) is 5/8 against playoff teams this season (HOU, JAX, SF, SEA, CAR // PHI, SF, SEA)
- The Patriots have scored first in four of the last five and have scored on their first possession in three of the last four games; New England is 1/3 against playoff teams (BUF // PIT, BUF)
- The Eagles have scored first in four straight games and 12/16 since Week 2; Philadelphia is 4/6 against playoff teams this season (LAR, DEN, GB, BUF // CHI, LAC)
- The Steelers have not scored first in their last three games after scoring first in four of the previous five games; Pittsburgh is 2/6 against playoff teams (NE, BUF // SEA, GB, LAC, CHI)
- The 49ers have not scored first in three straight games after scoring first in four in a row prior to that, but have scored on their first possession in five of the last nine; San Francisco is 3/8 against playoff teams (SEA, LAR, CAR // JAX, HOU, LAR, CHI, SEA)
You can check the First Touchdown Tracker to see the 3+ TD guys. I’ll consider that in my handicapping, but won’t post the entire list the rest of the way.
With that, let’s get to the Wild Card Weekend action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Rams (58.8%) at Panthers (41.2%) – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Packers (58.8%) at Bears (58.8%) – 8 p.m. ET
Bills (52.9%) at Jaguars (70.6%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
49ers (52.9%) at Eagles (70.6%) – 4:30 p.m. ET
Chargers (47.1%) at Patriots (41.2%) – 8 p.m. ET
Texans (52.9%) at Steelers (52.9%) – 8:15 p.m. ET
Really not many big advantages here. The Jaguars have one over the Bills, but they’ve also had nine different players score a first team TD this season. We’ll have to get creative here.
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Wild Card Weekend First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams +475, Davante Adams +500
I guess the two short prices on the Rams doesn’t qualify as “creative”, but I’ll get there. Adams tied for the league lead in red zone targets with 32 and had 12 touchdowns on his 13 receptions. He was the first TD scorer in the first meeting between these two teams, a game that Carolina ultimately won.
The Panthers have allowed 16 rushing TDs to running backs, the second-most of any playoff team (Bills – led league with 18 allowed) and Williams has 19 first team TDs for the Rams over the last two seasons in 36 games. He had the first TD on the scripted drive for the Rams in the Wild Card Weekend game against the Vikings last season.
I don’t mind taking a shot on Tyler Higbee at +1300. He played in Week 18 and while he had fewer snaps than Colby Parkinson, I’m not sure that’ll be the case in a playoff game.
As I mentioned above, the Rams have scored the first TD in five of their eight games against playoff teams and the Panthers only did in two of their seven games.
Buffalo Bills: Dawson Knox +2200; Jacksonville Jaguars: Bhayshul Tuten +1500
Here’s “creative”. The Jaguars have been really good at scoring first, but Josh Allen in the playoffs with the first possession could make things a little dicey. This price on Knox is too high in my estimation. I think the price on Khalil Shakir (+1900) is too high, too. James Cook and Josh Allen are +500 and +600, respectively. You have seven Jaguars at +1500 or lower before you get to anybody else on the Bills.
Dalton Kincaid has been playing 35ish% of the snaps since returning. He has three first team TDs, but those came in Weeks 1, 3, and 7. I’m willing to fire on the long shot price with Knox.
Tuten’s return for Jacksonville is interesting because he’s hawked a few TDs as the short-yardage, bruising back for Liam Coen. Travis Etienne had the Jags’ first TD three times and Tuten had it twice, so it’s not a huge gap. I considered Parker Washington here at +1400 too. This is the type of game and the type of odds board where a lot of the double-digit guys are worth a shot because both QBs spread the ball around.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Wild Card Weekend content in our Betting Hub.
