Wild Card Weekend
It took all 272 NFL regular season games to decide the playoff field, but the season continues for 14 teams and has ended for 18 as we look ahead to the Wild Card Weekend. Lines started populating in the betting market a few minutes before kickoff that 272nd game, which decided the AFC North champion. Now we’ve got two games on Saturday, three games on Sunday, and one game in the Monday Night Football window as every snap matters a whole heck of a lot from this point forward.
We’ve got some new blood and some old blood in the NFL Playoffs field, including the two teams who won’t play this week, as the Seahawks are back in the postseason for the first time since the 2022 season and in the field as a division champ for the first time since 2019. Obviously we just pivoted to 17 games a few seasons ago, but Seattle’s 14 wins were the most in franchise history dating back to 1976. The Patriots are in the playoffs for the first time since 2021 and for the first time without Bill Belichick since 1998.
As those two teams get a well-deserved break, the other 12 will hit the field in hopes of getting one win closer to lifting the Lombardi Trophy. Let’s look at the opening lines, early line movements, and talk a bit about each game.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Wild Card Weekend NFL Betting Odds Report:
Odds as of Sunday, January 4 at 8:45 p.m. PT
Rams (-10, 46.5) at Panthers
Saturday, Jan. 10, 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
We will have to wait and see if things stay where they are, but the Rams are currently tracking to be the biggest (or tied for the biggest) road favorite in playoff history. It isn’t hard to believe at all. Even though the Rams are the No. 5 seed and came up short in the NFC West chase, this is a team that has been power-rated among the league’s elites all season long. The Panthers, meanwhile, backed their way into the postseason thanks to the Falcons. They should send Raheem Morris a nice Edible Arrangement or something since he got the win that propelled them to the playoffs and then got fired a few hours after the game.
It should be mentioned that the division-winning Panthers finished 13th in point differential out of the 16 NFC teams. The Falcons and Buccaneers finished above them. The Rams finished second at +172 (Seahawks, +191). Carolina was -69, which is really not nice when you think about it and they are the only playoff team with a negative point differential. Meanwhile, the next closest team to the Rams was the Lions at +68. Point differential isn’t everything, but there is a giant chasm between these two teams and the opening line of -10.5 (Fanduel) certainly reflects that.
Are bettors going to be able to take an ugly home dog getting a big number in the playoffs or will they back the Rams, who led the NFL in points scored by a decent margin?
Rams-Panthers Matchup (Coming soon)
Packers at Bears (PK, 46.5)
Saturday, Jan. 10, 8 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
The lone division rivalry during Wild Card Weekend is this one and there is certainly no love lost between the Packers and Bears. Ultimately, the Bears ended up +2 in the win column, but who knows what would have happened without their incredibly improbable overtime win in Week 16. Coincidentally, that was the last time that Chicago won, dropping one-score games to the 49ers and Lions. It seems fitting that their 17-game quest would end with two one-score losses, as they were such huge benefactors of those types of wins during the season.
For a long time, the Bears were a division leader/playoff team with a negative point differential. And, to be honest, they finished +26 in points differential largely on the strength of a 28-point win against the hapless Browns, one of three double-digit wins for Chicago during the season. I think we could see that negative sentiment appear for them in the postseason, but maybe not against the Packers with Jordan Love working his way out of concussion protocol and a lot of other injuries.
Given some of those factors I mentioned, the Packers did open a road favorite at Fanduel, but the market mostly settled in at pick ‘em/Bears -1 as of Sunday night. We’ll have to watch the weather forecast as the week goes along in terms of where the total ends up. Right now, it looks pretty tame, but it’s Chicago in January, so you never know.
Packers-Bears Matchup (Coming soon)
Bills (-1, 51.5) at Jaguars
Sunday, Jan. 11, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Bills got a little unlucky in Week 18, as a Texans loss to the Colts would have given Buffalo the No. 5 seed and a matchup against the AFC North champ. Instead, the Bills head to DUUUUUUVAL County to take on a red-hot Jacksonville team. Liam Coen’s crew blasted the Titans to put an exclamation point on their AFC South Division title and they’ve ripped off eight dubs in a row.
That being said, the only wins in that span against playoff teams have been the Broncos and Chargers, who were probably looking ahead to the bye, so this one is a step up in class to be sure. That isn’t a slight on the Jaguars at all, who have been one of the league’s best defenses and have seen some tremendous growth from Trevor Lawrence. It’s simply to say that a lot of people are likely to poke some holes in the Jags’ schedule. Plus, three of their four losses are to playoff teams (SEA, LAR, HOU) and their other was to the Bengals with Joe Burrow in Week 2.
This line opened Bills -1 or -1.5, so the schedule and the nature of Jacksonville’s losses appear to be factored in. Also, there’s the Josh Allen factor with the visitors.
Bills-Jaguars Matchup (Coming soon)
49ers at Eagles (-3.5, 45.5)
Sunday, Jan. 11, 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Thanks to a Week 18 loss, the Eagles are one of three teams hosting an opponent that finished with a better record. The others are the Steelers/Ravens and Panthers, as San Francisco simply resides in a terrific division. The real bummer for the 49ers, though, is that instead of drawing the Panthers, they draw the reigning Super Bowl champs because of tiebreakers. The Eagles already beat the Rams earlier this season, but did not face the 49ers.
Brock Purdy did leave San Francisco’s Saturday night loss to Seattle, but both the QB and HC Kyle Shanahan said after the game that he was fine. The Eagles are plenty fine, as Tanner McKee got the start against the Commanders and many of the starters rested with nothing really to gain for the Eagles. Playing the Packers would have been an easier matchup on paper, and they nearly got that wish even without the starters, as the Bears lost to the Lions. Nevertheless, Philly hosts an opponent traveling cross-country.
The Eagles started 4-0 and are just 7-6 since. The 49ers played well through a litany of injuries. This is the line I’m most interested to follow throughout the week, as the Eagles opened 3.5-point favorites at most shops, but that seems like a precarious number right now with that hook. Fanduel even had Eagles -2.5 for a short time. It was pretty telling to see Seattle steamed into a clear road favorite in Week 18 against the 49ers, so maybe this line shouldn’t come as that much of a shock.
49ers-Eagles Matchup (Coming soon)
Chargers at Patriots (-3.5, 45.5)
Sunday, Jan. 11, 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
The Chargers will have to flip the switch back into the ‘ON’ position after sitting a lot of key players, including QB Justin Herbert, during the regular season finale against the Broncos. The Chargers mustered just three points in a game that didn’t really have any meaning to them. The Patriots, meanwhile, played everybody to start their 38-10 win over the Dolphins, so they stayed sharp while having an outside chance at the No. 1 seed. Ironically, it was the Chargers who really prevented them from having a chance in Week 18.
It’s a long trip east for the Chargers and that merits a mention. I’ve been tracking First Touchdown Scorers all season and the Chargers, who did well scoring first at home, failed to score first in their games at the Giants, at Miami, at Tennessee, at Jacksonville, and at Kansas City with early kickoffs, so they did get off to sluggish starts on long trips. We’ll see if they have to play from behind here or not, though this is definitely not an early kickoff.
This opener of 3.5 just has a different vibe than the opener of 3.5 in the above game, doesn’t it? A healthier Herbert could be a difference maker, but this is a Chargers team barely on the plus side in yards per play differential. Personally, I think this line goes to 4 and then we see how much Chargers support is out there.
Chargers-Patriots Matchup (Coming soon)
Texans (-3, 39.5) at Steelers
Monday, Jan. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
In leagues like the NBA and NHL, teams battling around the cut line have been playing playoff games for a while, so they already have the energy and intensity rolling when they get to the second season. The NFL just feels different in that regard and even though the Steelers clinched a spot in Week 18, neither team in that race was firing on all cylinders. Meanwhile, the Texans have looked like a well-oiled machine for a while, becoming the first team to start 0-3 and make the playoffs since they did it back in 2018.
So, this is a Houston team 12-2 over the last 14 games on the strength of one of the league’s most ferocious defensive units. Head coach DeMeco Ryans has overseen nine straight wins, but six of those have come against non-playoff teams. It isn’t Houston’s fault, as they can only play the teams on the schedule. They did beat the Ravens 44-10 earlier in the season, but draw the Steelers instead.
It was a late line opening here while waiting for the AFC North to be decided, but when it did open, the Texans were a clear road favorite of -2.5 with extra vig or -3. Another game to keep an eye on for the weather with the total sitting at 39.5.
Texans-Steelers Matchup (Coming soon)
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