NHL Playoffs Best Bets
NY Rangers (+120) vs. Carolina
The New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes are set to meet in the second round of the NHL Playoffs for the second time in the past three years. Back in 2022, the home team won every game until Game Seven, when the Rangers pulled off the upset on the road. This time around, the Rangers will have the home-ice advantage in this series with Game One facing off on Sunday.
The Rangers and Hurricanes had relatively similar statistics throughout the regular season and only three points separated the two in the standings. Carolina has a very strong lineup from top-to-bottom. Even though they went out and brought in Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov at the trade deadline, in my opinion, the Rangers’ talent still overshadows Carolina’s.
The New York Rangers had five different players with 70+ points in the regular season. Artemi Panarin (120), Vincent Trocheck (77), Chris Kreider (75), Adam Fox (73) and Mika Zibanejad (72). The Hurricanes only had two players who reached the 70-point plateau: Sebastian Aho (89) and Jake Guentzel (77).
In my opinion, this series is going to come down to the third and fourth line chipping in. As long as the players that were listed above hold serve, guys like Kaapo Kakko and Jimmy Vesey can be difference-makers for the Rangers, while Stefan Noesen and Martin Necas can be those guys for Carolina.
In the playoffs, there is always an emphasis on having good goaltending and strong special teams. The Rangers and Hurricanes cancel each other out in those categories because they’re both elite in those categories. The analytics community loves the Hurricanes over the Rangers, but home ice will be a bigger factor than some may realize. The Canes are 4-11 on the road in the postseason dating back to the 2022 playoffs, and if you can remember that far back, they lost all three games in that series at Madison Square Garden. The Rangers have been a fantastic home team this season as they had the second most wins on home ice in the NHL (30).
The real difference in this series will be the goaltending. Igor Shesterkin was outstanding in the first round as he only allowed seven goals against on 101 shots and boasted a .931 save percentage with a 1.75 goals against average. He also has the third-best goals saved above expected (+4.4). Frederik Andersen has also been excellent in net, but there has to be some concern about sustainability. Andersen had limited action in the regular season due to injury, so the first-round series against the New York Islanders was his first taste of full-time action in quite some time. While Andersen’s numbers were strong, he skated to a .912 save percentage and a 2.25 goals against average with a +2.3 GSAx, he’s not the guy that Shesterkin is.
The New York Rangers were the NHL’s best team in the regular season. They have the home-ice advantage, better goaltending, and more top-end talent—yet they’re the underdog in this series.
NHL Playoffs Best Bet: New York Rangers to win the series +120 (play to +100)
Edmonton at Vancouver (+220)
The Edmonton Oilers are the heavy favorites in this series against the Vancouver Canucks despite the fact that the Oilers went 0-4-0 in the regular season against the Canucks.
Vancouver outscored the Oilers 21-7 in the four meetings in the regular season, but you can throw all those stats out the window because the playoffs are a whole different animal. Going into this series, the story will be how Edmonton’s offense is completely firing while Vancouver struggled to score goals in their opening round.
The Oilers were averaging 4.40 goals per game in their 5-game series win against the Los Angeles Kings while the Canucks were scoring just 2.17 goals per game in their 6-game series against the Nashville Predators.
One of the biggest surprises of the playoffs has been the play of Arturs Silovs who had to step in after Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith both went down with injuries. Silovs has started the past three games in a row and has boasted a .938 save percentage with a 1.70 goals against average as well as a +2.8 goals saved above expected. I don’t want to give the Canucks the edge in goal in this series because the Oilers offense is a much different animal than the Predators’.
Stuart Skinner held his own in the first round against the Kings. He skated to a .910 save percentage with a 2.59 goals against average.
In any series against the Oilers, the difference is going to be the man-advantage. Edmonton’s power play is insanely dangerous as it clicked to a ridiculous 45%, and something even more insane is that they were a perfect 100% on the penalty kill. Edmonton has a massive advantage in special teams in this series. The Canucks power play only converted at 15.4% in the opening round, but their penalty kill was solid as well (90.9%).
To no surprise, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are currently leading the playoffs in scoring. McDavid has one goal with 11 assists, and Draisaitl has tallied five goals with five assists.
Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller and Quinn Hughes put up points for the Canucks, but they’re going to need more from Elias Pettersson if they’re going to get past the Oilers.
Personally, I think this Edmonton team is different. Skinner is playing well in net, and they showed they can finally close out a series. The Canucks didn’t convince me that they can keep up with Edmonton from how they played against the Predators.
I love Edmonton to win this series.
NHL Playoffs Best Bet: Edmonton Oilers -1.5 games in the series -140 (play to -155)
For more thoughts on the second round, check out Jonny’s latest VSiN video.
May Record: 4-2 (+2.00 units)
2023-24 record: 157–151 (-24.80 units)
Stay tuned to this column for additional NHL Playoffs best bets for the second-round series. I will add more once the other matchups have been decided.
