During my offseason research, I found a couple of things that I wanted to highlight coming into the season – the performance of heavy moneyline favorites and a fascinating trend regarding Stanley Cup winners. The two sort of go hand in hand, since big favorites during the course of the season are likely teams that will make the playoffs and have a chance at a championship.

Be sure to read my 32 NHL Team Previews with plenty of futures and best bets.

 

Betting Big NHL Favorites

In my first year with VSiN, one of the many trends that I began tracking was the results of NHL favorites of -300 or greater and if they were profitable. From the chart below, you can see favorites -300 and greater were dominant at 67-18, but a $100 bettor (always betting to win $100) would have only been up 3.35 units. 

If you focused only on the games when the favorite was -400 or greater, that same $100 bettor would have been up 6.75 units. Where you would have been most profitable was targeting the underdog to score a first period goal when the favorite was -400 and higher. In the 24 games last season with a -400+ favorite, the underdog scored in the first period of 19 of the 24 games. 

Here is a chart of how all of the teams in that role did and some first period results:

DateTeamMoney LineWin or Loss (Fav)Puck Line WinGoal 1st 10, Yes/NO1st Period Over 1.5, Yes/NOFull Game Over the total, Yes/NOBoth Teams to Score 1st PerFavorite Only-Dog Only -Both Teams-Neither Team to score in the first period
Boston
Overall-300+1-01-01-01-01-01-00-0-1-0
Calgary
-300+1-01-01-01-01-01-00-0-1-0
Carolina
Overall-300+12-17-610-310-35-87-61-4-7-1
-400+3-11-33-13-11-32-20-2-2-0
Colorado
Overall-300+5-25-24-34-34-34-31-1-4-1
-400+3-02-11-21-21-21-20-1-1-1
Dallas
Overall-300+7-14-43-54-42-5-11-74-1-1-2
-400+1-11-11-12-01-11-10-1-1-0
Edmonton
Overall-300+6-23-55-36-25-35-31-2-5-0
-400+4-01-33-13-12-22-21-1-2-0
Florida
Overall-300+6-25-34-43-53-53-52-1-3-2
-400+3-03-02-11-21-21-21-0-1-1
LA Kings
Overall-300+2-11-22-12-11-1-10-32-0-0-1
Minnesota
Overall-300+1-00-10-11-01-01-00-0-1-0
Montreal
Overall-300+0-10-11-01-01-01-00-0-1-0
Nashville
Overall-300+2-01-12-01-11-11-11-0-1-0
-400+1-01-01-01-01-01-00-0-1-0
Ottawa
Overall-300+1-01-00-10-11-00-11-0-0-0
Jersey
Overall -300+3-23-22-31-42-30-51-3-0-1
Rangers
Overall-300+2-00-21-10-20-20-20-1-0-1
-400+1-00-11-00-10-10-10-1-0-0
St. Louis
Overall-300+1-01-00-10-10-10-10-0-0-1
Tampa
Overall-300+3-22-33-22-33-21-44-0-1-0
Toronto
Overall-300+1-21-21-21-20-31-21-0-1-1
-400+1-10-21-11-10-21-11-0-1-0
Utah
Overall-300+1-01-00-10-10-1NO1-0-0-0
Vancouver
Overall-300+1-00-10-10-10-1NO0-0-0-1
Vegas
Overall-300+6-06-03-34-24-22-43-1-2-0
-400+1-01-01-01-01-01-00-0-1-0
Washington
Overall-300+1-11-11-11-12-02-00-0-2-0
-400+1-01-01-01-01-01-00-0-1-0
Winnipeg
Overall-300+4-11-42-32-33-21-41-2-1-1
-400+2-01-11-11-11-11-11-0-1-0
Overall Totals
-300+ Favorites67-1845-4046-3945-4040-43-232-Yes, 53- NO16 times the Dog was the only team to score. 48 of the 85 games the Dog scored a goal 
-400+ Favorites21-312-1216-815-910-1412-1219 of the 24 games the Dog has scored

Traits of Stanley Cup Winners

Dating back to 2009, the 2019 St. Louis Blues are the only team to win the Stanley Cup without having a player on their roster who was drafted either first or second overall. Of the other 16 winners, the Vegas Golden Knights (Eichel 2nd overall by Buffalo) are the only team to have a player on their Cup-winning roster that was one of the top two picks drafted by another team. 

Currently, there are 12 teams in the NHL that don’t have a player on their roster that they or another team drafted with one of the top two picks. Below is a list of those teams.

Eastern Conference: Boston Bruins, Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers

Western Conference: Calgary Flames, Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild, St. Louis Blues, Utah Hockey Club, Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets

YearCup WinnerPlayerPick 1 or 2Year Drafted
2025FloridaAaron Ekblad12014
FloridaAleksander Barkov22013
2024FloridaAaron Ekblad12014
Aleksander Barkov22013
2023VegasXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Note: Jack Eichel2 (Buffalo)2015

2022
ColoradoNathan MacKinnon12013
Gabriel Landeskog22011
2021TampaVictor Hedman22009
2020TampaVictor Hedman22009
2019St. LouisXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
2018WashingtonAlex Ovechkin12004
2017PittsburghSidney Crosby12005
Geno Malkin22004
Marc-Andre Fleury12003
2016PittsburghSidney Crosby12005
Geno Malkin22004
Marc-Andre Fleury12003
2015ChicagoPatrick Kane12007
2014LA KingsDrew Doughty22008
2013ChicagoPatrick Kane12007
2012LA KingsDrew Doughty22008
2011BostonTyler Seguin22010
2010ChicagoPatrick Kane12007
2009PittsburghSidney Crosby12005
Geno Malkin22004
Marc Andre Fleury12003