NHL Best Bets
Not to be cheesy, but tonight is one of those NHL nights you dream of as a kid. Game Seven between the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs is on a Saturday night with Hockey Night in Canada, making it perfect for people who don’t have a rooting interest. The storylines going into this game are incredible. If the Bruins lose, they’ll be the first team to blow 3-1 series leads in back-to-back postseasons, and if the Leafs lose again in Game Seven to the Bruins, their nightmare will continue. It’s also a great game for an NHL best bet.
Toronto at Boston (-142, 5.5)
Is Joseph Woll the savior the Toronto Maple Leafs have been looking for? Woll got the start in Game Five of this series. Since he stepped into the blue paint, everything has shifted in favor of the Leafs. Woll is now 2-0 in the playoffs and boasts a 0.86 goals against average with a .964 save percentage and a +4.3 goals saved above expected. The Bruins have been struggling not only to create offense but to find any way to put the puck past Woll.
Both teams have pressure in this situation, but it feels like all the pressure is on the Boston Bruins. Is Jim Montgomery now coaching to save his job? There are so many questions to ask after letting this series lead slip yet again. Montgomery called out the Bruins’ best player, David Pastrnak in his press conference after Game Six, “Pasta needs to be better”, he said. Pastrnak has two goals and two assists in this series, but he hasn’t looked like the dominant player we’re used to seeing.
Is Auston Matthews going to play? Matthews has missed the last two games with an “illness,” and the signs are all pointing toward him sitting out for Game Seven. It feels like the Leafs have rallied around not having their best player. William Nylander has stepped up in Game Six, scoring both Leafs goals. They will need him to do that yet again tonight.
The difference in tonight’s game will most likely be the power play. The Bruins have only had two power play opportunities in the last two games combined (one in each), and they failed to convert on both. The Leafs have had plenty more opportunities than Boston, but they haven’t scored on the man-advantage since Game One. Assuming that the whistles are put away like they usually are in a Game Seven, which team’s man-advantage will prevail in desperate times?
The last three games have been incredibly low-scoring, and I expect the same to happen tonight. I gave credit to Woll, but Jeremy Swayman has also been above and beyond, playing well enough to have given his team a chance to close this series out. Swayman is skating to a 1.60 goals against average with a .947 save percentage and a +9.9 goals saved above expected.
The first period under and the game under have hit in four out of the six games of this series and I expect a similar outcome tonight.
Also, I don’t want to be on the wrong side of history. Something about this 3-1 comeback is making be “BeLeaf” in Toronto. They have all the momentum going into this game, I think I’m going to back them.
NHL Best Bet(s): Toronto Maple Leafs ML +120 (play to +100) | Under 5.5 -135 (play to -145) | Under 1.5 1P -140 (play to -155)
May Record: 6-3 (+2.95 units)
2023-24 record: 159–152 (-23.85 units)
