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The NHL is off and running as we have another great slate of hockey games on this fine Thursday in October. Twelve teams will be playing their first games of the season, including a goaltending battle in upstate New York between Igor Shesterkin and Devon Levi. Jack Hughes and the young and fun New Jersey Devils kick off their season as a Stanley Cup favorite, along with the Dallas Stars, who could be a wagon in the Western Conference. Lastly, will we see another average year from the Minnesota Wild? Or can Kirill Kaprizov lead them on a playoff run?
These 12 teams have been waiting and watching patiently for their turn, and tonight shouldn’t disappoint. It’s another four-play night for me thanks to the incredible matchups on this slate.
New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres (+105, 6.5)
The New York Rangers and Buffalo Sabres had some very tight battles in the 2022-23 season. In fact, all three contests needed extra time. Devon Levi is set for his first full NHL season after appearing in only seven games last year. Levi finished the season with the Sabres after winning his second straight Mike Richter Award as the best goaltender in all of Division I hockey. There is a ton of hype around this kid as the future of the Sabres appears to be in his hands. He is actually my pick to win the NHL’s Rookie of the Year at +1200 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In those seven games last season, Levi earned five wins while skating to a .905 save percentage and a 2.94 goals against average.
His counterpart, Igor Shesterkin, was the 2021-22 Vezina Trophy winner as the NHL’s best goalie, so Levi certainly has a ton to play up to. Shesterkin has solidified himself as a top-three goalie in the NHL, and he is expected to be in the running for the Vezina yet again this season.
In these teams’ three meetings last year, the Under hit in all three first periods. The Rangers were a solid first-period team last year in this category, finishing with the eighth most first-period Unders in the league. Shesterkin skated to 37 wins with a .916 save percentage and a 2.48 goals against average last season. The Sabres weren’t as successful in this area last season, but I’ll take my chances with Shesterkin stopping their high-power offense.
The Ranger offense struggled a bit in the preseason, only scoring 12 goals in six games, so I don’t expect them to come buzzing out of the gate. There will be some extra nerves being that it’s Peter Laviolette’s first regular season game as their head coach. They have a ton of talented players up front, but rarely does this group come out flying. They had multiple slow starts in the preseason, which could be the case again.
I’m very confident in both of these goaltenders, and I’m expecting them to duel it out all night, but in the first 20 minutes, I don’t expect to see many goals.
Bet: Rangers/Sabres Under 1.5 1P +124 (play to +100)
St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars (-205, 6.5)
The St. Louis Blues had an extremely disappointing season last year, but they are more than capable of a strong bounceback. With that said, the Dallas Stars were not an opponent that the Blues enjoyed playing in the 2022-23 campaign as the Stars took all three meetings between the two teams.
After a trip to the Western Conference Finals, the Stars are going to be one of the top dogs in the West this year thanks to their outstanding goaltending from Jake Oettinger and their offensive weapons in Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. As strong as the Stars are offensively, they might be even better in their own end. Last year, Dallas finished with the league’s third-best goals against per game (2.62) and the fifth-best high-danger chances against per 60 minutes (10.84).
The offensive production was a massive struggle for the St. Louis Blues last year, and I wouldn’t say that they got much stronger up front this offseason. Their biggest struggle last year was the power play, which saw a massive decrease in production from the 2021-22 season. Considering that the Stars had the league’s third-best penalty kill last year, I don’t expect the Blues to find much success in that department tonight.
Oettinger has the potential to win the Vezina Trophy this season after being in the conversation for most of last year. He finished the season with a +11.8 goals saved above expected along with a stellar .919 save percentage. He should have no problems stopping the Blues tonight.
Even though I think Dallas is an absolute juggernaut up front, I don’t think Jordan Binnington will allow his team to get embarrassed on opening night after the year they had last year. I expect Dallas to win this game, but I feel very comfortable with both goalies. Two out of the three contests between these two last year stayed under, and I like that to happen again tonight.
Bet: Blues/Stars Under 6.5 -115 (play to -140)
Detroit Red Wings at New Jersey Devils (-265, 6.5)
The New Jersey Devils were an absolute force in the preseason as they won all seven of their games, and now they enter the regular season with the vibes at an all-time high. New Jersey was the team of the summer, signing Timo Meier to an extension and going out and bringing in Tyler Toffoli, this team is loaded, but now the pressure is on.
The Detroit Red Wings enter this season looking to take a big leap from last year. They took a step in a positive direction, but it wasn’t good enough to get them anywhere close to the playoffs. A win tonight would be a statement for Detroit.
With that said, the Devils have everything going for them right now and they were phenomenal on home ice last season, skating to a record of 24-13-4 at the Prudential Center. New Jersey was the fifth-best offensive team in the league and the eighth-best defensive team in the 2022-23 season, while the Red Wings finished toward the bottom of the league in both categories.
The Devils’ top six, especially their first line consisting of Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Toffoli, should be able to take advantage of this mediocre Red Wings blue line. This line looked outstanding in the preseason, and they’re going to thrive playing 5-on-5. At 5-on-5, New Jersey was the best team in the NHL last year, generating 34.41 scoring chances per 60 minutes.
I expect Detroit to have a better season than last year now that they’ve made some nice acquisitions, highlighted by Alex DeBrincat, but as far as tonight’s game goes, I don’t love their chances.
The Prudential Center will be rocking for the Devils who are looking to make a run at the Stanley Cup this season, and I think New Jersey will put on a show for their fans tonight.
Bet: New Jersey Devils -1.5 -105 (play to -120)
Florida Panthers at Minnesota Wild (-125, 6.5)
Tonight we will get our first look at the runners-up from the 2022-23 season in the Florida Panthers. They had a Cinderella story last year, making the playoffs by one point, taking out the best regular season team in NHL history in round one, and then making their way to the Stanley Cup Final. However, this run came with some consequences as they will start the 2023-24 campaign without two of their key blue liners, Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour.
The Minnesota Wild had another disappointing playoff showing, but there were a ton of positives to take away from their season. Kirill Kaprizov continues to be an NHL superstar, and the Wild have another key piece to their future in Matt Boldy, who could potentially make a run at a 40-goal season this year. The Wild will need more offensive contributions outside Kaprizov, Boldy, Mats Zuccarello and Joel Eriksson Ek. After those four, there was a major drop-off in production, but I feel confident in their group this year.
The Wild haven’t confirmed it yet, but they will most likely go to Filip Gustavsson tonight in goal after a strong showing last year where he skated to a .931 save percentage and a 2.10 goals against average. There aren’t many questions about Gustavsson, he has proven himself, and it should be his net to lose.
The biggest question is if Sergei Bobrovsky can sustain his unbelievable play from last year’s playoff run in Florida. Bobrovsky was the talk of the playoffs as he dominated the league with a +16.3 goals saved above expected along with his .915 save percentage and 2.78 goals against average. His regular season performance wasn’t near as impressive as that postseason run, so it will be interesting to see which Bobrovsky we get tonight.
The Panthers haven’t had many successful trips to Minnesota as they have gone 4-10 in their last 14 games at the Xcel Energy Center. I like Minnesota to take advantage of a weakened Panthers blue line and come out of the gate with a win on home ice.
Bet: Minnesota Wild ML -125 (Play to -145)
2023-24 record: 4-3-0 (+0.92 units)
