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The first week of the NHL season didn’t go as successfully as I would have liked, but hey, we’re learning a lot of different things about teams around the league. There have been some wild upsets, unstoppable goal scorers, hot goalies, and offensive struggles. We’ve seen it all.
Luckily, there are nine games on tonight’s NHL slate, so this gives us a good chance to get back on the positive side of things. One of the main questions I have through the first week is if the Vancouver Canucks are for real? They head into Philadelphia tonight for a matchup with the Flyers. How about the Buffalo Sabres? Tage Thompson has been held pointless through his first two games. When will he get going? On the opposite end of the spectrum, what is wrong with the Oilers? Can they figure it out tonight in Nashville? We also get to see a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Finals as the Dallas Stars seek revenge in Vegas.
There’s plenty of action across the league tonight, so let’s get into it.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres (-112, 7)
After a breakout 2022-23 NHL season with 47 goals and 47 assists, Tage Thompson has been held pointless through his first two games. He hasn’t played badly, but he hasn’t been the player that we saw last season.
Thompson had some strong showings last season against their divisional opponent, the Tampa Bay Lightning. In the four matchups, he boasted five goals, three assists, and 12 shots on goal. He’s had some good looks in the first two games but hasn’t been able to finish. A goal-scorer like him must be frustrated and should start throwing more pucks on net.
The Lightning haven’t gotten off to an ideal start to the season as they’re 1-2-0. They’ve lost back-to-back games on the road in ugly fashion. As of right now, the Lightning are allowing the fourth most shots on goal against per game (37.0) as well as the ninth most high-danger chances against per 60 (13). They have looked sloppy in their own end, which is a good sign for players like Thompson and the Sabres who are desperate for their first win.
In Thompson’s first game, he put up three shots on goal, and in his previous game, he tallied four. I think Thompson is going to be even more of a shooter tonight against a Lightning team that he torched last year. I’m keeping my eyes on #72 for the Sabres tonight, I think he’ll have a strong game.
Bet: Tage Thompson Over 3.5 Shots On Goal +105 (play to -110)
Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers (+120, 6.5)
The Vancouver Canucks have been a very popular team through the first week of the NHL season. After sweeping their home-and-home series against the Edmonton Oilers, I’m starting to wonder if they could make some noise this year.
The Canucks are the best offensive team in the NHL right now, averaging six goals per game, while at the same time, the Flyers are allowing 3.50 goals against per game.
Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, JT Miller and Quinn Hughes have all started strong, largely due to the success of the Canucks’ power play. Through the first two games, the Canucks have converted on four of their nine attempts on the man-advantage (44.4%), making it the best in the league.
The Flyers’ special teams have been abysmal thus far. Their penalty kill is ranked 28th in the league at 66.7%, and their power play might be even worse, with an 11.1% success rate.
This is the Flyers home opener, so they may have a little extra jam, but I’ve loved what I have seen from the Canucks here in their first two games, and I have a lot of faith in their netminder, Thatcher Demko. Demko only started the first game of the season, so he is well-rested heading into tonight. In that opening game, Demko earned a .955 save percentage and a 1.25 goals against average. It should also be noted that those numbers came against a very strong offensive team in the Oilers. Tonight, he is up against a much weaker forward group for the Flyers.
Carter Hart has not looked great for Philly in his first two starts, skating to a .891 save percentage and a 3.53 goals against average.
The Canucks should be able to take care of business tonight on the road.
Bet: Vancouver Canucks to win in regulation +110 (play to -110)
Edmonton Oilers at Nashville Predators (+124, 6.5)
The Edmonton Oilers have had an ugly first two games, but I couldn’t think of a better bounce-back candidate. Tonight, they head into Nashville to take on Juuse Saros and the Predators, who have had a respectable start to their season, but it’s only a matter of time until things start to get bad for this team.
Even though it hasn’t necessarily shown yet, the Oilers are a much more dominant offensive team than Nashville. In their first two games, the Oilers have only scored four goals, but in their last trip to Bridgestone Arena (December 13th, 2022), Edmonton was able to put up six goals. Of course, that’s almost a year ago, but Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl aren’t guys that can take losing. Edmonton is still seeking its first win of the year, and they need these two to step up. McDavid had six points in the two games he appeared in against Nashville last year (one goal, five assists) while Draisaitl tallied five (two goals, three assists).
The only concern I have is Saros. He’s looked strong in his first three starts, skating to a .920 save percentage and a 2.41 goals against average, while the Oilers’ goaltending hasn’t been pretty.
Stuart Skinner will most likely get the net tonight for Edmonton, and he needs a strong performance. Edmonton is going to be the more desperate team, and they are so much more talented than Nashville. I think the Oilers will see their first win of the season tonight.
Bet: Edmonton Oilers to win in regulation +105 (play to -125)
Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights (-112, 6)
The Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights haven’t seen each other since their six-game Western Conference Finals series in last year’s playoffs. Thanks to the strong blue lines on both sides and the unbelievable goaltending, those games were tightly played. Adin Hill and Jake Oettinger both made names for themselves last season, and once again, they have looked strong at the beginning of this season.
Hill shows no signs of a Stanley Cup hangover. In his first two starts, he is 2-0-0 while boasting a .964 save percentage and a 1.01 goals against average as well as the league’s third-best +4.3 goals saved above expected.
Oettinger has only appeared in one game thus far, but it was an incredible showing as he stopped 23 of the 24 shots that he faced, earning a .958 save percentage and a 0.92 goals against average with a +1.1 goals saved above expected.
Both teams have been perfect thus far on their respective penalty kills, which makes it a little easier on the goalies, but that just shows how strong they are defensively. Neither team has shown weaknesses in their own respective ends. The Stars are allowing the second-least shots against per game (24.0), and the Golden Knights aren’t too far behind them, sitting at fifth (26.3).
Both teams certainly have some offensively gifted players, but as of right now, the defense outweighs the offense. In their series history, the under has gone 12-4-1, and I expect that trend to continue with Hill and Oettinger shutting it down in the blue paint.
Bet: Under 6 -122 (play to -135)
2023-24 record: 9-11-0 (-4.88 units)
