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Feeling good after going 3-1 last night, but there are only two games on the board tonight in the NHL.
The pesky Ottawa Senators play host to the Washington Capitals, and Sidney Crosby faces off against Dylan Larkin and the Detroit Red Wings on TNT.
Even though it’s a light slate, a lot of stars are in action aside from Crosby and Larkin. Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle have gotten off to fantastic starts to the season for the Senators, while Alex Ovechkin is still seeking his first point of the season.
These two games should be some fun ones.
Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators (-166, 6.5)
The Washington Capitals are coming off of a feel-good 3-2 overtime win on the road against the Calgary Flames, but this team has looked incredibly sloppy thus far in their first two games. In both of their games combined, they have been outshot 75-42, and they are currently second-worst in the NHL at allowing shots against (37.5).
The Ottawa Senators’ offense has looked strong throughout their first three games, as the team is currently tied for second in goals scored per game (4.33) while averaging 33.0 shots on goal per game. Tim Stutzle has been a major contributor to the Sens’ offense as he averages a point per game, but he is also coming off of a one-goal, eight-shot performance in his most recent contest.
It can be argued that Stutzle is the driver of this team’s offense, but playing on a line with Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux certainly boosts his play. Stutzle and Tkachuk are tied for the team lead with 14 shots on goal through the team’s first three contests.
The Capitals have allowed the ninth-most high-danger chances against per 60 minutes (12.48), but where they struggle most is the penalty kill, which currently ranks 30th at 62.5%. Washington has allowed three power plays goals on eight penalties taken while the Senators have thrived on the man-advantage, clicking at a 27.3% rate.
I really like Ottawa in this contest and Tim Stutzle to create offensive chances.
Bet: Tim Stutzle Over 3.5 Shots on Goal +135 (play to +120) | Ottawa Senators to win in regulation -105 (play to -120)
Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings (+105, -6.5)
The Pittsburgh Penguins and Detroit Red Wings both come into this game having won back-to-back games after dropping their respective season openers.
Both teams’ big guns have shown up thus far. Evgeni Malkin and Jake Guentzel have tallied six points for the Penguins, while Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust are tied for the team lead with three goals. Overall, the group has looked strong offensively, averaging 3.67 goals per game, which puts them eighth in that category. They are outperforming their 3.49 expected goals per 60 minutes. Pittsburgh’s power play has been a solid boost for them as well. Their man-advantage is converting at 25% on the season, as they have scored on two of their eight attempts.
For the Detroit Red Wings, it’s been their offseason acquisitions that are leading the way. Alex DeBrincat leads the team with five points, while JT Compher is right behind him in second with four points. I don’t think it’s fair to compare Detroit’s offensive talent to Pittsburgh’s, but the Red Wings have looked pretty promising early on. In fact, Detroit is actually scoring at the second-highest rate, averaging 4.33 goals per game, and their power play is currently tied for first, sitting at 40% on their conversion rate.
The goaltending is a bit of a concern, specifically for Detroit. Ville Husso will get the nod for the Red Wings tonight. Husso hasn’t looked strong out of the gate, with an .863 save percentage and a 3.57 goals against average.
Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic have both had solid outings to start the year. They each have a .944 save percentage. But with Detroit’s success offensively, especially the power play, it won’t be easy for whoever gets the start.
Last season, two out of the three meetings between these two teams went Over. I think the offense shows up for both sides again, and I expect to see a lot of scoring.
Bet: Over 6.5 -125 (play to -140)
2023-24 record: 12-12-0 (-2.78 units)
