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NHL betting market report for Friday, November 11th
Wins: 25
Losses: 23
Units Won: +2.71 units
ROI: +5.8%
Recap: Boston got the job done thanks to a Charlie McAvoy (welcome back) winning goal. However, while the Sharks were able to keep it close (3-3 midway through third period) they ended up losing the game 5-3 when the Blues put the puck into the empty net and iced the game. I’ve got to apologize to you all, though, because I did not see that Kaapo Kahkonen was confirmed to start in goal for San Jose. It’s extremely rare that I would miss something that’s already been reported, but I was forced to expedite the process on Thursday morning because of unforeseen circumstances. No excuses, though. I should’ve caught that. My bad.
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Friday’s Bets: Seattle Kraken +105 (see write up for bet amounts)
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Minnesota Wild (-125) at Seattle Kraken (+105)
Kraken forward Jared McCann was regarded as a game-time decision heading into Tuesday’s game against the Predators, but he did not end up suiting up. That’s a good sign, though, as far as I’m concerned. Seattle has had two days off, and assuming McCann plays, they should be a small favorite against the Wild, who are playing their second game in as many days. Minnesota should have some more success now that their injury troubles are clearing up, but the Kraken are arguably a better hockey team overall. I don’t expect either team to have solid goaltending this season, even though Martin Jones has been good so far in the starting role. The Wild’s underlying numbers have been stronger as of late, but they’ve been playing the worst teams in the league so it’s hard to get excited about any improvements. Seattle grades out as a better team by expected goals, shot attempt percentage and they also have a far better goal share than the Wild. Bet the Kraken at +105.
Notes: Filip Gustavsson is expected to start in goal for the Wild. Martin Jones is expected to start in goal for the Kraken.
Update: I thought there was a chance that the Wild could go back to Gustavsson but the Wild are in fact going back to Marc-Andre Fleury. Seattle’s odds of winning the game aren’t as good as they would’ve been with Gustavsson, but they should still win the game more often than not, according to my model. Martin Jones will start for Seattle.
Bet: Seattle Kraken +105
Stake: 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Pittsburgh Penguins (+130) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-150)
The Penguins will likely get up for a game against the Maple Leafs, as most teams do, and I’d love it if there was value in betting against Toronto on Friday, but according to my NHL betting model, the market has priced this game appropriately. Toronto should win the game approximately 56.5 percent of the time, which translates to fair odds of around -130 (the consensus price).
Notes: Erik Kallgren is expected to start in goal for the Maple Leafs with Ilya Samsonov injured.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-145) at Washington Capitals (+125)
It’s hard to put a price on the Capitals given that their roster has been ravaged by injuries, and it’s unclear if defender Dmitry Orlov will be able to play on Friday. Orlov is considered day-to-day after missing the last two games with a lower-body injury. Even if he doesn’t play, though, it looks like the market has already accounted for that and, therefore, there isn’t any value in betting on the Lightning at -145.
Notes: Darcy Kuemper and Andrei Vasilevskiy are expected to start in goal. The teams will meet again in Tampa Bay on Sunday.
San Jose Sharks (+180) at Dallas Stars (-200)
For the first time in his career, Stars’ goaltender Jake Oettinger has missed time due to injury. The 23-year-old missed the last four games, but he returned to practice on Thursday and could make his return to the crease against the Sharks on Friday. San Jose will be playing tired after their loss to the Blues and subsequent travel, but they will have James Reimer in goal, and that’s a positive. Still, Dallas should be a big favorite regardless, if Oettinger is in goal. My NHL betting model prices the Stars around -250 if their star goaltender is in the crease, but closer to -200 if he isn’t. I won’t be around to update the report today, though, and I’m not willing to chance it on a big favorite.
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