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Market Report for Sunday, November 6th
Wins: 23 Losses: 22 Units Won: %plussign% 0.96 units ROI: 2.2 percent
Recap: Just one ‘best’ bet on Saturday, if you want to call it that. As soon as the puck dropped, you could tell that the Islanders weren’t on their game.
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Sunday’s Bets: There are currently no bets.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Toronto picked up a big 2-1 win over the hottest team (Boston) in the NHL on Saturday, but their starting goaltender, Ilya Samsonov, suffered an injury in the process. Erik Kallgren replaced Samsonov in the third period, and he will start on Sunday in Carolina. Kallgren went 8-5 straight up last season, but he hasn’t won yet this in 2022-23. Kallgren was able to preserve the win for the Maple Leafs, but the 2015 7th round pick has allowed three or more goals in 12 of the 17 games he’s played so far in his NHL career. Statistically, both Toronto and Carolina grade out as top-10 teams on defense. The Hurricanes pass the eye test, though, and unlike the Maple Leafs, they have no trouble bearing down on their opponents. However, don’t doubt either team’s offensive struggles. Carolina might be the best team in the league, but their scoring rates are average. Average is quite a bit better than 24th, which is where the Maple Leafs rank in goals per 60 minutes (all situations), but it’s still a bit of a concern, nonetheless. My model is showing around -160 in favor of the Hurricanes, assuming Frederik Andersen in in goal. This is one of those games that could soar of the total, if both teams are up for the game, but with both teams tired (Carolina is playing their third game in four days) it’s going to be a little tougher for the Hurricanes to take advantage of a tired team, especially one that’s looking to make another statement. I’ve been watching the market all morning, and it’s been a bit of a tug-of-war. If someone with influence comes in hard on the road team, I’ll consider betting the home team at a better price than what is currently available, but I kind of doubt that will happen given Toronto’s record on the road and Kallgren’s less than stellar resume.
Update: Andersen and Kallgren are the starting goaltenders.
I’ve made a few friends in the hockey world over the years, and one of them covers the New York Rangers for a major media outlet. I like to ask him who he thinks the Rangers will start in goal most days, unless it’s painfully obvious or already confirmed. He thinks Jaroslav Halak will start on Sunday versus the Red Wings, but he’s admittedly been wrong a lot lately. If Halak is in goal, the price is just about right (-250), but if head coach Gerard Gallant decides to go with Shesterkin, it’s far too short, and the Rangers odds should, and likely will, trend toward -300, with Alex Nedeljkovic expected to be guarding the cage for the Detroit. He’s allowed 18 goals in his last three starts.
Update: Nedeljkovic and Halak will start in goal.
Anaheim bounced back in San Jose on Saturday, while the Panthers fell in Los Angeles. Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz started in goal for their respective teams, which means we’ll almost certainly see Spencer Knight and John Gibson between the pipes on Sunday. My model prices this game at -200 in favor of the Panthers, which isn’t all that interesting considering that’s what most sportsbooks have. The Ducks are one of the worst teams in the league, but the Panthers are rarely a good bet on the road and that’s been the theme for a while now. It’s almost a rule of thumb at this point: Don’t bet the Panthers on the road.
Update: Panthers’ star forward Matthew Tkachuk has been suspended for two games. This is big news, but bets started trickling in on the Ducks well before it was announced that he would have a hearing. Without Tkachuk, the Panthers are a lot less likely to win this game, but there’s no value in backing the Ducks at the current price, according to my model.
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