NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Tuesday, November 22nd

129

NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Tuesday, November 22

Welcome to VSiN’s NHL Bets page. Your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. Read on for odds, predictions and best bets for Tuesday, November 22nd.

Follow me on Twitter to stay up to be notified of any changes.

 

Recap: Monday’s best bet on the Vegas Golden Knights cashed, but it wasn’t as easy as it should’ve been. Vegas owned 70 percent of the expected goals, and even led 2-1 after the first period, but still, they had to score three goals in the third period to overcome a two-goal deficit.

Tuesday: There are just two games on Tuesday, and I’m only interested in one of them from a betting perspective.  

Tuesday’s Bets: Los Angeles Kings -105 (see write up for bet amounts)

Wins: 31
Losses: 31
Units Won: +0.29 units
ROI: +0.6 percent

I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.

New York Rangers (-115) at Los Angeles Kings (-105)

Bet: Los Angeles -105
Risk: 1.05 units
To Win: 1 unit

This is the first game of a back-to-back for New York, as they will travel to Anaheim for a game on Wednesday. That means there’s a chance that Jaroslav Halak could get the start in goal. However, since the Kings are a more formidable opponent than the Ducks, I’m going to assume head coach Gerard Gallant will give the nod to starter Igor Shesterkin. Obviously, it would be great for Kings bettors if Halak was to start, but either way, Los Angeles is a good bet to beat the Rangers at -105 with the assumption that Jonathan Quick will be guarding the cage. The Kings haven’t announced their starting goaltender, but Quick won’t get another chance to start until Friday and six days is likely more rest than head coach Todd McLellan is looking to give him.

Both Los Angeles and New York rank among the top-10 teams in expected goals and shot attempt percentage at even strength, but the Kings have a slightly better goal share. The Rangers grade out as a slightly better team in all situations, but not enough to make them a favorite on the Kings’ home ice. Both teams have struggled to produce offensively, especially as of late, but the Kings have been better in that regard over the course of the season. My NHL betting model estimates that the Kings will win the game approximately 53.5 percent of the time, but their chances will increase significantly if Shesterkin gets the night off. Bet the Kings to beat the Rangers at -105 or better to win one unit.

Notes: Kings’ forward Alex Iafallo has yet to return to the lineup and defenseman Sean Durzi is listed as day-to-day. I suspect the team will provide an update on both players sometime today.

Buffalo Sabres (EVEN) at Montreal Canadiens (-120)

Buffalo should get defenseman Mattias Samuelsson back on Tuesday. He’s not the biggest name, from a needle-moving perspective, but he’s a competent blueliner and the Sabres don’t have many of those. I mean, it’s not exactly a coincidence that the Sabres’ season started to fall apart after they lost Samuelsson and Henri Jokiharju to injury. The Sabres won seven of their first 10 games but have lost eight in a row since. They’ve allowed at least five goals in seven of those eight losses, too. Montreal hasn’t been better than Buffalo per se, they’ve just been more consistent. The Sabres have stronger peripherals, though, and that’s why my NHL betting model prices this game like a coin flip. Both teams rank among the bottom-five on defense and grade out slightly below average in terms of offensive efficiency.

Note: Canadiens’ forward Mile Hoffman is regarded as day-to-day with a lower body injury.